Florida will no longer be a Swing-State...

[2016]

if current trends continue.

Republicans have almost erased what was once a 700K Registration Advantage by Democrats during the Obama Year to a mere 23,000+ Advantage.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2021/09/20/more-bad-news-for-florida-democrats-494394

Steve Schale, a longtime Democratic Florida Guru who was the FL State Director for Obama in 2008 + 2008 without a full partisan effort Florida will have more registered Republicans than Democrats by the end of the Year.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact Florida voted Republican by more than 3 points in a year where the Democratic candidate got 300+ EV shows it already isnt a swing state.

[Non Swing Voter]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

[Xing]

It's certainly not a tipping point or bellwether state, but it's a bit too soon to say it isn't even competitive.

[THG]

Florida is on its way to becoming a redder state. I used to be a bit cautious but it is pretty apparent by now.

[DS0816]

Since 1992, the average number of carried states have been 29 with the range between 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) and 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton).

During this period—so far numbering 28 years and 8 presidential-election cycles—no winner has carried more than 8 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states.

Since the Democrats won in 2020, here is where they ranked (for them):
01. California +29.15
02. New York +23.09
03. Illinois +16.94
— U.S. Popular Vote +4.45 —
04. Michigan +2.78 (pickup)
05. Pennsylvania +1.18 (pickup)
06. Georgia +0.24 (pickup)
— Not Carried —
07. North Carolina –1.35
08. Florida –3.35
09. Texas –5.57
10. Ohio –8.02

What I sense would happen—if it does turn out Donald Trump’s Republican pickup of the presidency including flipping Florida to the Republicans and realigning it to their party—is that Florida will become the Democrats’s No. 9 best state (among their best in the Top 10) while Texas will become their No. 8.

[GregTheGreat657]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

Have you seen California?

[Cyrusman]

This isn’t that surprising. The last few years Florida has been viewed by a lot of conservatives all over the country (especially on the east coast and Midwest) as the place to go and move to. It’s attracted a lot of conservatives from bluer east coast states especially after covid.

[Non Swing Voter]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

Have you seen California?

What's the beef with CA? 

Has the strongest and most robust economy in the country, huge budget surplus, tiny covid infection rates.  If CA and FL were their own countries they'd be classified in entirely different leagues.

[TodayJunior]

I reject the very premise of this title. We are and always will be a swing state.

[Pericles]

Let's see if 2024 has a reversal of Latino swings combined with good results for Dems elsewhere but it is looking like the world won't have to watch it so much for election results. Unfortunately, Rick Scott may win again and it may cost Dems in a big way if they're unlucky and it's close.

[Adam Griffin]

Some of us have known longer than others:

It doesn't matter much: most Democrats don't have a shot in hell of winning Florida. It's time for Democrats to learn and to write off FL (and OH while we're at it), and start putting money into the swing states of the modern era. For the cost of what we spend targeting these 2 useless states, we could target GA, AZ & make serious attempts in TX (or shore up efforts in NC).

Given Democrats can't win OH or FL, absolutely.

And just in case another point needs to be driven home:

Triage Ohio.

The rest are still winnable by Democrats.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Some of us have known longer than others:

It doesn't matter much: most Democrats don't have a shot in hell of winning Florida. It's time for Democrats to learn and to write off FL (and OH while we're at it), and start putting money into the swing states of the modern era. For the cost of what we spend targeting these 2 useless states, we could target GA, AZ & make serious attempts in TX (or shore up efforts in NC).

Given Democrats can't win OH or FL, absolutely.

And just in case another point needs to be driven home:

Triage Ohio.

The rest are still winnable by Democrats.

Certainly a smart call, although I note the lack of abandonment of Florida after 2016.

[Adam Griffin]

Certainly a smart call, although I note the lack of abandonment of Florida after 2016.

I admit I still held out hope for FL post-2016, but 2018's outcomes made it painfully clear where that s[inks]t-hole was heading.

[TodayJunior]

Certainly a smart call, although I note the lack of abandonment of Florida after 2016.

I admit I still held out hope for FL post-2016, but 2018's outcomes made it painfully clear where that s[inks]t-hole was heading.

Please give us a chance to get it right in 2022. If we don’t, then fair game.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Certainly a smart call, although I note the lack of abandonment of Florida after 2016.

I admit I still held out hope for FL post-2016, but 2018's outcomes made it painfully clear where that s[inks]t-hole was heading.

It would, honestly, be insane to have thought that Florida was gone after 2016, but I merely wanted to make a point of not this massive prediction so early that it was lost.

[THG]

Certainly a smart call, although I note the lack of abandonment of Florida after 2016.

I admit I still held out hope for FL post-2016, but 2018's outcomes made it painfully clear where that s[inks]t-hole was heading.

It would, honestly, be insane to have thought that Florida was gone after 2016, but I merely wanted to make a point of not this massive prediction so early that it was lost.

Between 2016-2018 it still appeared like Florida was being the usual bellwether/tipping point state it had been for so many election cycles previously. I only figured that FL would lean a bit to the right after 2018. However, after 2020 and especially the news that Republicans will outnumber Democrats in voter registrations, its fairly clear that it’s going to be gone.

I would say Florida is currently the inverse of where Virginia was in the late 2000’s and early to mid 2010’s. A then purple state clearly heading towards being a partisan one, though of course Virginia became solidly blue and Florida is looking towards being more solidly red.

[Biden his time]

This is what happens when your state party is full of self-serving scum more interested in filling their bank accounts and woke virtue signaling to get them money from those out-of-state morons than helping the people of Florida

If Florida Dems were even half as competent as Georgia Dems, every election would be a rut for their party.

This is what happens when your state party is full of self-serving scum more interested in filling their bank accounts and woke virtue signaling to get them money from those out-of-state morons than helping the people of Florida

If Florida Dems were even half as competent as Georgia Dems, every election would be a rut for their party.

The GA Dems arent as competent as you think, as the reason it flipped was cause republicans were always reliant on insane racial polarization to win that state and the things that broke it:

- Obama being able to spike African American turnout which took 9 points of the 2004 GOP margin alone

- Younger Whites being less Republican than prior generations(even if they are very Republican compared to young whites nation wide)

- Trump speeding up trends by 6-8 years

Good points of course. Even with all that, though it doesn't hold a candle to how horrid the FL Dems are at literally everything

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is what happens when your state party is full of self-serving scum more interested in filling their bank accounts and woke virtue signaling to get them money from those out-of-state morons than helping the people of Florida

If Florida Dems were even half as competent as Georgia Dems, every election would be a rut for their party.

The GA Dems arent as competent as you think, as the reason it flipped was cause republicans were always reliant on insane racial polarization to win that state and the things that broke it:

- Obama being able to spike African American turnout which took 9 points of the 2004 GOP margin alone

- Younger Whites being less Republican than prior generations(even if they are very Republican compared to young whites nation wide)

- Trump speeding up trends by 6-8 years

[President Johnson]

The fact Florida voted Republican by more than 3 points in a year where the Democratic candidate got 300+ EV shows it already isnt a swing state.

I'd still consider any state within less than five points a swing state. State results don't exactly shift with the national popular vote. I could see a Republican winning 2024 nationally and winning Florida by less than Trump under certain circumstances.

[Schiff for Senate]

Voter registration matters nothing compared to actual voting, or NH would be a red state and KY would be a blue one.

[Frodo]

Voter registration matters nothing compared to actual voting, or NH would be a red state and KY would be a blue one.

It does if one party's voters turns out more consistently than the other. 

[DS0816]

I reject the very premise of this title. We are and always will be a swing state.

From 1880 to 1924, a period of 44 years and 12 election cycles, Florida was in the column for Democrats every time. But, during that specific period, they won just 4 cycles: 1884, 1892, 1912, and 1916.

That is one example why Florida has not “always” been “a swing state.”

[2016]

Let's be honest here:
To beat DeSantis you need a better Candidate than "PARTY-SWITCHER" Charlie Crist. Given current Trendlines DeSantis is likely to win by 4-6 Points and Rubio by 6-9 Points.

[TodayJunior]

I reject the very premise of this title. We are and always will be a swing state.

From 1880 to 1924, a period of 44 years and 12 election cycles, Florida was in the column for Democrats every time. But, during that specific period, they won just 4 cycles: 1884, 1892, 1912, and 1916.

That is one example why Florida has not “always” been “a swing state.”

I mean in the current era, and going forward. Massachusetts and Alabama were strongholds for the opposite parties they are today, so it's not really a good comparison to go before 1960 (maybe 1980 or even 2000), as both parties have changed significantly.