Future of the UK Liberal Democrats

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What is the future of the UK liberal Democrats ?

After a resuergence in the early 2010's aided by the alienation of many from the labour parties pro-war stance, they joined a coallation with the conservatives that promtply saw the party decimated  loosing 80% of their seats and being reduced to a tiny minority party. They then tried to use radical anti-brexit sentiment as their ticket back into the political mainstream but that seems to have failied and they now seem kinda nowhere given labours centreist pivot.

Their only recent succses was a by-election upset fueled by NIMBYSM which hardly seem to the path back into mainstream signficance.

[Pericles]

Their target vote is pretty clearly Tory Remainers, and they'll be a party of centre-right graduates. Indeed, Chesham and Amersham wasn't mainly about NIMBYism, they likely were going win just because it was a highly educated 55% Remain seat and so is turned off by Boris Johnson's government. The 2024 election is unclear, since a lot of their 2019 voters like Starmer but also their target voters are more open to voting LibDem if it doesn't mean someone as toxic to them as Corbyn would become PM. They can gradually build up their vote, and target the 50 something seats where Labour was way behind them. The best move in a future hung parliament likely would be a DUP-style agreement with Labour or just taking each vote as it comes, without getting bound to a major party with a coalition.

[Gary JG]

Since the Second World War, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats have tried various approaches to try to win parliamentary seats. All of them have basically failed, except for the two remaining strategies - to appeal to disaffected Conservative voters mostly in southern England and to be the lead Scottish unionist party in a limited number of seats.

This is a sad conclusion. The average Liberal Democrat activist would ideally prefer to take over being the lead anti-Conservative party on the centre-left, in a reversion to the pre-1922 party system, but survival pressures are forcing them to compete with the Tories on the centre-right.

Sir Ed Davey, as the one remaining prominent MP in the comparatively right wing Orange Book faction, is probably the most suitable leader for the next few years. It remains to be seen if he can get much public attention and restart stable growth for his party.

[Conservatopia]

Their conference shows they at least have a future in stand-up comedy.

[CumbrianLefty]

Since the Second World War, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats have tried various approaches to try to win parliamentary seats. All of them have basically failed, except for the two remaining strategies - to appeal to disaffected Conservative voters mostly in southern England and to be the lead Scottish unionist party in a limited number of seats.

This is a sad conclusion. The average Liberal Democrat activist would ideally prefer to take over being the lead anti-Conservative party on the centre-left, in a reversion to the pre-1922 party system, but survival pressures are forcing them to compete with the Tories on the centre-right.

Sir Ed Davey, as the one remaining prominent MP in the comparatively right wing Orange Book faction, is probably the most suitable leader for the next few years. It remains to be seen if he can get much public attention and restart stable growth for his party.

Would they?

That's not the general impression I have had talking to them (both online and IRL) down the years.

Might also be worth mentioning that of the six full time LibDem leaders since Kennedy, one has been from the left (Farron) one in the centre (Cable) and the other four - including Davey - from the right.

[Zinneke]

Their conference shows they at least have a future in stand-up comedy.

Not sure that's the case, they are already being outshone by BoJo the Clown.

Did you see the clip of him holding a Covid-19 meeting with Drakeford "and numerous others". Davey can and will sell himself as an honest, competent manager and leader (which he has shown through his stint at Energy), but the Tory media will just ask him about gender.

[rc18]

Their conference shows they at least have a future in stand-up comedy.

Not sure that's the case, they are already being outshone by BoJo the Clown.

Boris plays the fool, they meanwhile are fools.  

I mean Boris smashing the red wall in a digger at the 2019 election was at least mildly amusing, because you know he's acting up. The weird attempt the LDs made of replicating this at their party conference was just cringe, especially when they've made such a big deal of "BoJo the Clown".

Davey can and will sell himself as an honest, competent manager and leader (which he has shown through his stint at Energy), but the Tory media will just ask him about gender.

Starmer plays the honest, competent manager and leader and it hasn't got him far. And in comparison Davey makes Starmer look charismatic.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What interests me is that their internet activists seem to be vocally YIMBY but they tend to campaign on NIMBYSM. It's a duality i'm never been able to understand.

[rc18]

What interests me is that their internet activists seem to be vocally YIMBY but they tend to campaign on NIMBYSM. It's a duality i'm never been able to understand.

The Lib Dems are absolute masters of saying one thing locally and completely the opposite thing nationally.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Since the Second World War, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats have tried various approaches to try to win parliamentary seats. All of them have basically failed, except for the two remaining strategies - to appeal to disaffected Conservative voters mostly in southern England and to be the lead Scottish unionist party in a limited number of seats.

This is a sad conclusion. The average Liberal Democrat activist would ideally prefer to take over being the lead anti-Conservative party on the centre-left, in a reversion to the pre-1922 party system, but survival pressures are forcing them to compete with the Tories on the centre-right.

Sir Ed Davey, as the one remaining prominent MP in the comparatively right wing Orange Book faction, is probably the most suitable leader for the next few years. It remains to be seen if he can get much public attention and restart stable growth for his party.

Would they?

That's not the general impression I have had talking to them (both online and IRL) down the years.

Might also be worth mentioning that of the six full time LibDem leaders since Kennedy, one has been from the left (Farron) one in the centre (Cable) and the other four, including Davey, from the right.

Davey might be the most right-wing of them all. I think some of his views on economics aren't far off David Laws (how the eff was any leftie supposed to vote tactically in Yeovil in 2015?).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Since the Second World War, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats have tried various approaches to try to win parliamentary seats. All of them have basically failed, except for the two remaining strategies - to appeal to disaffected Conservative voters mostly in southern England and to be the lead Scottish unionist party in a limited number of seats.

This is a sad conclusion. The average Liberal Democrat activist would ideally prefer to take over being the lead anti-Conservative party on the centre-left, in a reversion to the pre-1922 party system, but survival pressures are forcing them to compete with the Tories on the centre-right.

Sir Ed Davey, as the one remaining prominent MP in the comparatively right wing Orange Book faction, is probably the most suitable leader for the next few years. It remains to be seen if he can get much public attention and restart stable growth for his party.

Would they?

That's not the general impression I have had talking to them (both online and IRL) down the years.

Might also be worth mentioning that of the six full time LibDem leaders since Kennedy, one has been from the left (Farron) one in the centre (Cable) and the other four, including Davey, from the right.

Davey might be the most right-wing of them all. I think some of his views on economics aren't far off David Laws (how the eff was any leftie supposed to vote tactically in Yeovil in 2015?).

he's competent though, very effective in reducing the UK's carbon emissions.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Their conference shows they at least have a future in stand-up comedy.

Not sure that's the case, they are already being outshone by BoJo the Clown.

There is a difference between stand-up and slapstick.

[Big Abraham]

Hopefully in full dissolution

[Benjamin Frank]

10 Downing Street.  Lib-Dementum!  Demmentum?

[ingemann]

Since the Second World War, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats have tried various approaches to try to win parliamentary seats. All of them have basically failed, except for the two remaining strategies - to appeal to disaffected Conservative voters mostly in southern England and to be the lead Scottish unionist party in a limited number of seats.

This is a sad conclusion. The average Liberal Democrat activist would ideally prefer to take over being the lead anti-Conservative party on the centre-left, in a reversion to the pre-1922 party system, but survival pressures are forcing them to compete with the Tories on the centre-right.

Sir Ed Davey, as the one remaining prominent MP in the comparatively right wing Orange Book faction, is probably the most suitable leader for the next few years. It remains to be seen if he can get much public attention and restart stable growth for his party.

Would they?

That's not the general impression I have had talking to them (both online and IRL) down the years.

Might also be worth mentioning that of the six full time LibDem leaders since Kennedy, one has been from the left (Farron) one in the centre (Cable) and the other four - including Davey - from the right.

The real enemies are always the people you compete with votes about, it’s pretty clear that LibDem think that Labour is taking the voters which rightful belong to the LibDem, which is why cooperation with Labour is impossible because it would raise the question why LibDem doesn’t just join Labour. I think USA serve as a pretty good model for how a Tory/LibDem political system would look. At the same time I don’t think this is realistic, the reason that the Democrats in USA haven’t been replaced by a real Left Wing party is because of the large unified minority groups vote in USA. British Hindus and Muslims are not as important vote as African Americans and Hispanics in USA, they’re also natural gerrymandered by their concentration in urban environments, this mean that UK can’t adopt the American model of the Generic American Party and the Everyone Else Party, but instead have to compete on policies and class representation.

[Continential]

Hopefully in full dissolution

Their activists will have to find another thing to do then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Since the Second World War, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats have tried various approaches to try to win parliamentary seats. All of them have basically failed, except for the two remaining strategies - to appeal to disaffected Conservative voters mostly in southern England and to be the lead Scottish unionist party in a limited number of seats.

This is a sad conclusion. The average Liberal Democrat activist would ideally prefer to take over being the lead anti-Conservative party on the centre-left, in a reversion to the pre-1922 party system, but survival pressures are forcing them to compete with the Tories on the centre-right.

Sir Ed Davey, as the one remaining prominent MP in the comparatively right wing Orange Book faction, is probably the most suitable leader for the next few years. It remains to be seen if he can get much public attention and restart stable growth for his party.

Would they?

That's not the general impression I have had talking to them (both online and IRL) down the years.

Might also be worth mentioning that of the six full time LibDem leaders since Kennedy, one has been from the left (Farron) one in the centre (Cable) and the other four - including Davey - from the right.

The real enemies are always the people you compete with votes about, it’s pretty clear that LibDem think that Labour is taking the voters which rightful belong to the LibDem, which is why cooperation with Labour is impossible because it would raise the question why LibDem doesn’t just join Labour. I think USA serve as a pretty good model for how a Tory/LibDem political system would look. At the same time I don’t think this is realistic, the reason that the Democrats in USA haven’t been replaced by a real Left Wing party is because of the large unified minority groups vote in USA. British Hindus and Muslims are not as important vote as African Americans and Hispanics in USA, they’re also natural gerrymandered by their concentration in urban environments, this mean that UK can’t adopt the American model of the Generic American Party and the Everyone Else Party, but instead have to compete on policies and class representation.

Well, that's actually about as clear as mud.

[beesley]

Their future is winning here!

Seriously, the Liberal Democrats do much better beyond their usual vote once you remind people of their existence (i.e in relation to someone else's and better at it). That's fine if you're happy with the max. 30 or so seats they might get (barring a real Tory collapse of huge proportions). If you want to generate momentum they have to really offer something (popular and bold, but sensible) beyond that.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Gradual decline. They trod water in the locals, which is a poor showing because it followed on from the 2016/17 elections. They didn’t do well in those due to memories of the coalition and Tim Farron gaffes. Those have faded, but success has not returned, which is a yellow flag for the long-term health of the party.

England runs on a two-and-a-half party system. The decline of liberalism in the Celtic fringe and the rise of the Green Party (which will continue until global environmental policy is fixed) will lead to the LDs eventually being eclipsed.

[GenerationTerrorist]

They lost their way as soon as they viciously ousted Charles Kennedy (RIP) over his Alcoholism, and replaced him with the Snake Oil Salesman that was Nick Clegg.
I voted Lib Dem in 2001, 2005 and 2010. Happily, on almost every Policy. Clegg then jumped into bed with the Tories and utterly decimated what the Party stood for in terms of societal fairness.

As mentioned above, I can't see them regaining ground, because that would already have been lost to the Green Party (and maybe Labour) by the time the next election happens.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

There are enough Tory-held southern seats within 5% to double the party's parliamentary representation, so that will be their target in 2024.

The Lib Dems are fundamentally an opportunistic party whose only route back to relevance is taking advantage of one of the two main parties pissing off a part of their coalition - in the 90s it was the Conservatives, in the 00s it was Labour. Currently the path of least resistance seems to be targeting the aforementioned disgruntled liberal Tories.

[Coldstream]

They should get 20-30 seats in the next election, just with Tory remainer types who were too afraid to vote Lib Dem in 2019 for fear of Corbyn coming over to them tactically. But it’s hard to see them ever regaining the relevance they had 2003-2010.

As has been mentioned above the Green Party is likely to overtake them as the third party in terms of votes (not seats, at least for a while) and possibly already has in terms of members(?).

The only thing that has prevented the Greens making gains is that the Lib Dem activists are distributed quite efficiently - there are small towns all over southern England with 5-10 Lib Dem activists who campaign hard (my home town is one of them). The Greens issue is that they are a predominantly city based party; Brighton, Bristol, parts of Sheffield etc and don’t as yet have the kind of resources to compete in little council by-elections that the Lib Dems do (though this is changing).

Although as with the Lib Dems, it’s hard to see the Greens path to getting many seats. One in Brighton and potentially one in Bristol seems like their limit atm. The fact that the Lib Dems are likely to have more seats than the Greens for the foreseeable future will likely allow them to survive on the fringes for a few more decades.

[Coldstream]

Though I think the best way to illustrate their weakness is to look at the fact they have only 2 seats that they’ve held since before the 2017 election.

Shetland & Orkney, an outlier in every sense of the word. And Tim Farrons seat, where he gets in on a personal vote - that with him gone will almost certainly revert to the Tories as Norman Lambs seat did.

Of the seats they won in 2015 - all except Shetland & Orkney were due to anti-Labour tactical voting or a strong personal vote. They could quite easily have ended up with just 1 seat in that election.

[Tintrlvr]

The fact that they have survived since the 1930s indicates that they are unlikely to go extinct any time soon, despite the best wishes of some of their detractors. They're in no worse, and arguably better, position now than they were before the rise of the Alliance - although the comparatively halcyon years of the 1980s through 2010 seem to be over for now. Still, the various historical moments at which the LDs have surged at the polls, most recently in the EU elections, indicate that there is certainly some ability for them to surge again in the future with the right leader and the right circumstances in society and the other parties. That's not a prediction that they'll do so any time soon - or that any surge would coincide closely enough with an election to be relevant (after all, Jeremy Thorpe briefly looked like a potential PM in 1974, but the bubble had completely deflated by election day, not to mention the manias of winter 1981-2 and 2010) - but it does mean that they at least have the potential to be relevant again. We'll see.

Arguments about the inconsistency of their seats fall flat when looked historically, since they've never actually had a consistent base (except the Northern Isles), with most of their seats coming to the party for a by-election and an election or two and then departing as soon as they came.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Stranger things have happened than a Lib Dem revival. Indeed, the increased trend of politics towards parties becoming flexible brands probably helps the LD's potential, even as it caused the final death of its "ancestral" territory.