He'd have to get elected in November. That's far from a given, even if he is the current favorite.
McAuliffe only got 47.5 percent of the vote when he ran against Ken Cuccinelli. Cuccinelli likely would have won were it not for a pro-choice Libertarian who siphoned votes away from Cuccinelli, who has made opposing abortion his signature issue. Now Virginia has changed since 2013 and 2013 was a Repubican year, but this year is likely to be a Republican year to some degree in Virginia.
When you win with 47.5% of the vote it begs the question of how popular you are. McAuliffe is favored, and I'd say, gun to my head, that he'd be the winner, but I don't see where he's PERSONALLY popular. He's the candidate because the replacements for Northam all had their baggage, as did Northam. He's the "safe" pick. The question is (A) how Democratic is Virginia right now and (B) how much actual personal popularity does Terry McAuliffe have with Virginia voters. My prediction is that he'll win, but he'll be shocked by how close it is.
Other way around, T-Mac would've reached 50 without that third party.
And given that he's unlikely to have someone as incompetent as Robby Mook like last time, it seems unlikely for a stumble.
