What would Trump's ceiling be against Biden in the popular vote?

[Chips]

After seeing Rasmussen's Trump+10 against Biden poll that came out today, it got me thinking....

Almost everyone would likely agree that there is no way Trump could win the popular vote by anywhere close to 10 points against Biden unless a meteor struck Los Angeles, Chicago and New York. But could Trump plausibly win the popular vote against Biden in 2024? I won't mention the electoral college at all because I think most would also agree that if Trump's doing well enough in the popular vote, he's probably winning the electoral college comfortably.

So, what's the best you could see Trump doing against Biden in the popular vote in 2024? I'd say about 50% and a 1.5% margin of victory.

[THG]

1-2 points.

[Senator-elect Spark]

3-4 points at most.

Trump 51%
Biden 48%

[Fusternino]

3-4.

This is how much he would've won by if COVID hadn't happened or he had a competent response.

[SN2903]

3-4%

About 51 to 47% is most I could see.

[Sir Mohamed]

Perhaps a tie at ~ 48.5 or 49%. Which would lead to Trump winning over 300 EVs.

[TodayJunior]

Option #1. It's not happening in any universe under any circumstances. Full stop. I guarantee it.

Why? The Democrat margins in California, New York, and low single-digit Republican margins in Texas (getting thinner) and Florida alone will guarantee this GOP fantasy will never materialize.

Republicans would have to break 40% in California and New York (both unlikely) win Texas by 10-12% (also unlikely), and maintain their Florida margins at 3-5% (the only one that is possible) to have a real shot at the NPV. Honorable mention to Illinois and New Jersey, two other sizable prizes Dems consistently win by 15-20 now, but those would go in the same direction as the aforementioned CA/NY.

[DaleCooper]

Under absolutely perfect circumstances for the GOP, Trump might be able to beat Biden by 1-2%, and that's very unlikely. With Trump as the nominee and no serious third party candidates, the popular vote borders on Safe D.