2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[DC Al Fine]

Anyone been to a polling station today? Will be skewed by postal voting, but preliminary insights on turnout?

A couple co-workers said it was pretty quiet when they went to vote this morning.

[DC Al Fine]

Expectations management?

Of course, under these easy goalposts O'Toole could claim a success if the seat models projections of a result similar to 2019 come to pass. Of course it won't stop his ouster if the Tories don't go up significantly, nor Trudeau's eventual similar fate if said numbers play out.

It's kind of weird because if you told me when the writ was dropped that Trudeau was held to a minority I'd call that a modest win. Funny how events change expectations haha.

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like EKOS kept with tradition and massively underpolled the Tories, by nearly 7%!

[DC Al Fine]

Is there a breakdown of the best and worst ridings (so far) by party? Especially interested in PPC for their best ridings.

PPC:

Portage-Lisgar (MB) - 20%
Beauce (QC) - 18% (Maxime Bernier)
Provencher (MB) - 16%

They didn't do as well (~10%) in rural AB.

Any others that were high?  I think they got 14% in Timmins-James Bay, which is surprising although it is more a faux-left riding (Union guys not progressives).

Don't let Al catch you saying that

[DC Al Fine]

Any chance that the mail-in vote might flip one or two seats for the NDP? Since they're just barely trailing in a few right now.

CBC has the NDP narrowly trailing in four seats that haven't been called yet: Davenport, Spadina-Fort York, and Hamilton Mountain in Ontario, plus Vancouver Granville in BC.

They also narrowly lead Nanaimo-Ladysmith which could flip the other way.

[DC Al Fine]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

[DC Al Fine]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

Interesting, would that not be a first in Canada? A former provincial Premier winning a federal nomination?
I know former provincial party leaders have.

Bob Stanfield was Premier of Nova Scotia before losing to Trudeau three times.

[DC Al Fine]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

He already has a far better one. Why would he want a demotion ?

Yeah, fair point.

[DC Al Fine]

Mulcair presided over the biggest seat loss in... the entire history of the party, I'm pretty sure? And the idea that he wouldn't have lost as many seats if not more than Singh in 2019 is dubious at best. He blew up a real chance at winning a plurality. I don't see by what metric he could be seen as anything other than an abject failure.

There are good reasons to criticize Singh and be disappointed in his leadership, but putting him in the same category as Mulcair is ridiculous. The fact is that the NDP is back to its pre-2011 status as a minor party. In a situation like this, the most it can realistically hope for is to gain a few seats per election. Singh didn't deliver on that exactly, but he seemed to have succeeded in at least stabilizing the party's fortunes, which was not a given after the 2015 disaster.

I think when we analyze the NDPs results so far on the riding level, the NDP did ok, yes not as good as expected but not as bad as 2019. The NDP gained 3 seats, sadly thought losing 2 but those 2 losses were situational I think.

Hamilton Mountain - The NDP nominated quite frankly a terrible candidate for the seat, a former MP who is NOT from Hamilton. I really don't know what their thinking was here, it wasn't even a contested nomination. The LPC has been nipping at the NDP here since 2015 at least, polling over 30% so the riding association failed here. BUT Hamilton, for the lack of a better word, has been "Torontoising" for the last decade at least. Cheaper housing, and proximity to TO has attracted many young urban swing progressives from Toronto, particularly those starting families. Housing is like half the cost here (or was). So you can see Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (to a lesser extent since it is already more LPC friendly due to Stoney Creek) are more susceptible to ABC-but-really-vote-Liberal strategic voting.

St. John's East - The other open seat with no incumbent, and that incumbent being Jack Harris a legend in NFLD, this was always going to be tough. I think the NDP nominated a good candidate, a relatively strong one, but she was no Jack Harris. I was actually hopping someone like Sheilagh O'Leary (SJs deputy mayor and former provincial ndp candidate) would run who at least has a bigger shadow to cast, but maybe next time. Anyway, the provincial Liberals were gunning for this seat and their ground game paid off. I think it was going to be a hard fight no matter what, where Hamilton Mountain was a failure of the local NDP from the start, in SJE it was just too high of a mountain to climb this time sadly,

BUT, the gains:

Edmonton Greisbach - EVERY 'Dipper should be so excited about this gain, and we should look to this seat as a playbook. 1) it's been a target since 2008, and the party grew from 25% in 2019 (below the past few elections of mid-late 30%) to 40%. 2) a big thanks has to go to Janis Irwin and Rachel Notley and the ANDP, they were all over this seat as was Singh and the entire federal party. This goes to show the party should really stick to targeted regional campaigns. 3) the Kenney effect, this was always a week area for conservatives but with the success of the ANDP over the last decade and the failures of the UCP during the pandemic, a big chunk of the vote was CPC-NDP punishing kenney, but the NDP were able to harness it. This may be a one-off but the party should really look at the success in Edmonton Manning and Edmonton Centre, where the party gained 13% and 9% (Edmonton Centre could have been won had Boissonnault not run).

Port Moody-Coquitlam - An almost from 2019, same candidate again but a much more focused campaign. The NDP here were helped by no green (gained 7% over 2019, and the Greens won... 7% in 2019). The NDP needs to focus on retaining this Green vote to see more success in BC, the collapse of the Greens benefitted the NDP but also the LPC.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith - Not called yet but here's hoping, the NDP wanted this so bad. It was a sting to have lost it in the first place when the Greens were on an up-ward trend pre-2015. It's still close so this riding shows how important local ground game is. The NDP is marginally up 6%, but the CPC is also up 3%, the Greens down 9%... so you can see here, the Green vote split unlike in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

Toronto: ugh, my city... The NDP is up in Davenport by 2% and 8% in Parkdale-High Park, and so close in my Spadina-Fort York (we know that's situational) The Indi MP is getting massive amounts of negative press, even Adam Vaughan has come out against him so... there may be a by-election fairly soon (and I hope!). But also up in Toronto Centre by 4%, and Danforth is back to pre-Layton 33-34% (sad, only a "star" candidate can really win this back, maybe). But it's the strategic voting, its the meh-LPC are doing ok, it's the Ya-ill-vote-NDP-but-then-I-change-my-mind-voter. It's hard to say what will help, policy maybe but the LPC eventually gets around to stealing it and, surprise most voters don't care and praise the LPC for it. Better ground game, sure always helps, but the wall of LPC-strategic voting is very strong and very high.

The NDP caucus is more diverse and female now as well; -2 older white men, +2 women and +1 Indigenous two-spirit MP man (the first in Canada). 

I shudder to ask this, but how many people are voting strategically against the Tories in seats where they have no chance?

[DC Al Fine]

I think a lot of the more pertinent "Catholic ethnic" in the case of those Etobicoke ridings might be Eastern European than Italian.  (But when it comes to Italo-Catholic, the fact that King-Vaughan flipped the other way from AORRH and Vaughan-Woodbridge turned out to be a tighter race than Richmond Hill or even Markham-Unionville is indicative.)

Stevo from EPP needs to retire the "Vaughan Italians are uniquely and especially Liberal" line.

Kind of reminds me of how when Ford won, some modellers confused the map with the terrain and were totally convinced that that Del Duca was going to hold on in Vaughan-Woodbridge... Del Duca of course lost by nearly twenty points

[DC Al Fine]

So just as a refreshment, what was the final balance of power after this election?  Usually i follow the Canadian elections but this one came from nowhere and I was too occupied with U.S. issues and COVID to really devote that much attention to our lovely Northern neighbor.... Justin Trudeau will remain P.M.  Did any of the smaller parties make gains?

Not really, this election had the smallest change in seat count in Canadian history.

[DC Al Fine]

Our best swings were in Newfoundland and and Northern Ontario. Not exactly the Bridle Path lol

[DC Al Fine]

So just as a refreshment, what was the final balance of power after this election?  Usually i follow the Canadian elections but this one came from nowhere and I was too occupied with U.S. issues and COVID to really devote that much attention to our lovely Northern neighbor.... Justin Trudeau will remain P.M.  Did any of the smaller parties make gains?

Not really, this election had the smallest change in seat count in Canadian history.

oh wow, so a "status quo election" it was, then?  Do you feel the next election will be a real game-changer?

I've given up on projecting Canadian politics haha

[DC Al Fine]

We all know that if Bloc+CPC was over 170 we would have PM O'Toole.

Evidence please.

Anyway, Paul Wells on his Facebook posted "so in 3 separate conversations in Ottawa the past few days, 3 different people asked me 'so what do you think Chrystia Freeland is up to nowadays?' "

Legault endorsing specifically a CPC led government. The Bloc's modern political existence is dependent on the CAQ - who look set to improve their majorities next year BTW - whose policies conflict with the national Liberals and were tacitly endorsed by the national Conservatives. There is a reason why the Bloc defends Quebec's French-style nationality laws. Going against Legault would arguably be suicide.

Reminder that the Bloc are not factionally ideological anymore, they are an amorphous tent that captures all parts of the political spectrum - as long as they support Quebec uniqueness and a Quebec voice, and therefore by extension, the CAQ,

Right, so you think everyone in this amorphous tent wanted O'Toole to be Prime Minister? I'm sure some did, but your thought process is one that can exist on paper in theory but falls apart a bit trying it practically.

Not everyone in the tent needs to want O'Toole as PM.

The logic is simply that in the event that Con>Lib, Lib+NDP<Majority, the Tories would be able to outbid the Liberals on provincial autonomy and would be willing to play ball on Bill 21. Attempting to match the Tories on those issues would cause major issues for the Liberals and/or NDP, in what would already be a very awkward arrangement. Hence it would be easier to just negotiate with the Tories on a case by case basis.

[DC Al Fine]

Could also as you mention be hedging bets as Quebecers always want influence in government so where Tories competitive some do just to ensure they have a voice in government if they win.

Yes, I suspect many of the Tory voters in the Capitale-Nationale sphere of influence would have voted Bloc if they lived elsewhere in the province - although the key difference with Saguenay being that the Capitale-Nationale was pretty split on sovereignty (and Beauce voted "no" fairly comfortably), while Saguenay was the strongest region for the "yes" vote. This is probably a big part of why anti-Liberal voters in the Quebec City area gravitate to the Tories and not the Bloc.

Still, the Tories do tend to do better than their provincial average in the Lac St. Jean region, even when they don't have a star candidate. It's not enough to win most of the time, but it's enough to male me wonder why. The area doesn't exactly scream Toryism.

[DC Al Fine]

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.

To add to what Earl said, the Tories did better in rural Newfoundland this election than they did in 1997 with the Atlantic Chretien backlash, or Mulroney's 1988 result. This indicates that rural Newfoundland has had a rightward trend that goes beyond individual candidates doing well.

[DC Al Fine]

By contrast in urban Atlantic Canada, its Liberals in first, NDP in second and Tories distant third. 

There actually isn't much of "urban Atlantic Canada" where that's the case--basically, Halifax and St. John's and that's it.  And thank the Alexa and Jack Harris legacies for that.

And keep in mind that a generation or so ago, conventional wisdom was that Cape Breton as a "competitive" proposition would have been Lib vs NDP.  No longer.

And even in Halifax really only describes the two more urban ridings. The Halifax burbs, are more like Liberal first, with NDP and Tories duking it out for second. It's closer to Hamilton East-Stoney Creek or London North Centre than Davenport.

[DC Al Fine]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

[DC Al Fine]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

How does that happen ?

I don''t know the exact details, but he got his start trying to unionize deckhands on the lobster boats before going into politics. There was a very public split between the Cape Breton NDP (led by him), and the Halifax NDP (led by Alexa McDonough) during the 80's, in which he accused the NDP of "selling out the working man to appease a bunch of hippie kids from Dalhousie". That's basically his critique of the left today.


He definitely fits the stereotype of the sort of person the NDP used to appeal to but increasingly struggles with today.

[DC Al Fine]

The New Brunswick seats are a classic case of a leader winning stretch seats in their first big win (and Harper being a uniquely bad fit for Atlantic Canada).

West Nova (and South Shore-St. Margaret's) are more the result of the Liberals royally screwing up on the Indigenous fisheries protests (see also the Nova Scotia election results).

[DC Al Fine]

What did Bernadette Jordan do to annoy the fishermen?

To elaborate on what MaxQue posted, in the 1990's, there were two Supreme Court cases which affirmed:

a) First Nations have the right to earn a "moderate livelihood" from fishing
b) The Government can "restrict treaty rights, such as fishing rights, for conservation reasons or other justified grounds."

In classic Canadian fashion, neither the courts, nor Parliament have ever defined what those above quoted phrases mean, which has led to periodic disputes.

Last year, the Sipekne'katik First Nation launched a commercial lobster fishery in southwestern Nova Scotia which operated outside the federally regulated lobster season. The Department of Fisheries has largely sat on it's hands about the issue despite escalating protests, acts of vigilantism, and RCMP arrests for selling lobster caught on "Ceremonial" licenses.