2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Hatman 🍁]

For those who didn't see my map on Twitter:



A lot of enlightening insights to be drawn.

[Hatman 🍁]

One wonders looking at Timmins-James Bay, Churchill and Desnethe (and the drop in Liberal fortunes in Kenora) how bad turnout must've been on reserves.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

Most NHLers I suspect are Conservative. Bobby Orr endorsed Trump, and Gretzky is a well known Conservative.

However, there have been some Liberal hockey players in the past. Ken Dryden was an MP, and Frank Mahovlich was a Senator.

With only one result to be finalized and one recount to come, I think I can be safe in putting these up:

First, a results map shaded according to the winners' margin of victory:

Second, a map shaded according to the winners' percentage of the vote:

Finally, a map shaded according to the swing:

  Some may say this sounds silly but any possibility of doing a US style map where red for ridings where CPC + PPC > than LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC while blue for ones where LPC + NDP + BQ + GPC > CPC + PPC, otherwise a map to see where left outperforms right.

If you are to do this, I wouldn't include the Bloc on the same side as the LPC. Either a third pole or the right. The Bloc doesn't have an ideology these days besides localism, but that localism ties it at the hip to the CAQ and Legault. We all know that if Bloc+CPC was over 170 we would have PM O'Toole. But the Bloc isn't a CPC ally, and if it was a two-party system the Bloc would still play the part of a regional party. Of course, if it was a two party system, the Liberal party would lose voters to the CPC as in picks up the present NDP base - ending us up close to 50-50,  but that is a whole other can of worms.

It might make sense to allot ~60% of Lib votes to the left, and ~40% to the right on any such map.

[Hatman 🍁]

I remember Andrew Ference spoke at the 2009 NDP convention.

Not many athletes are New Democrats, alas. Most amateur athletes run for the Liberals, though more "western" sports like football and curling skew more conservative.

[Hatman 🍁]

I remember Andrew Ference spoke at the 2009 NDP convention.

Not many athletes are New Democrats, alas. Most amateur athletes run for the Liberals, though more "western" sports like football and curling skew more conservative.

Didn't the NDP run a candidate this election in Levis, QC who had been a Olympic medallist?   

I didn't know this! Though it appears she didn't win any Olympic medals.

[Hatman 🍁]

There was definitely an NDP-> Liberal swing among Indians in certain places, especially Brampton.

[Hatman 🍁]

The last time not a single seat in Quebec changed hands in an election was 1926.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess we're starting to see NL start to behave more like the rest of the Western world, and ditch its ancestral voting patterns.

[Hatman 🍁]

And then of course there's Dominic Cardy. You could argue he didn't change his beliefs all that much though.

In Saskatchewan, there's Ross Thatcher. Elected in the 1944 CCF landslide wanting to do something about the depression, his small business sensibilities made him an awkward fit with a socialist party, so he became a leading champion of free enterprise, and an opponent of Tommy Douglas, later becoming Premier of the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!

Crossed my mind as well, but there are lots of examples of New Democrats switching to the Liberals. More interesting to track the more right wing drifters/

Another NDP to Tory switcher is Angela Vautour who was elected in the 1997 Alexa wave, but defected. Kind of amazing to think that the NDP ever won Beausejour of all places.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa was also one of the few places in the province that saw a large (comparatively) swing away from Doug Ford's Tories in 2018.  I've also noticed the NDP has been doing much better in Ottawa, than ever, really (except in Ottawa Centre ) For example, the NDP had its best result ever in my riding of Ottawa South this year.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd probably have to look at the poll-by-poll results to confirm or debunk this, but based on the results since 2004, it does feel like Kenora has a not necessarily large but still electorally decisive racist tendency - a few percentage points' worth of people who will vote Tory when the NDP candidate is First Nations but are still open to a white Dipper.

Yup. Probably a good thing then that the provincial riding was split in two, giving the Indigenous population their own riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another oddity, this time in the northern QC riding of Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.

For some reason minor parties but especially the Marijuana Party did unusually well in the Inuit polls. Maybe the funniest poll result came from Tasiujaq's poll 11, where the Conservatives managed to come sixth behind the FPC, the PPC and the Marijuana party. It isn't just a weird artifact of low turnout or LPC/NDP dominance like some other unexpected results from reserves; the latter three combined would have actually tied for first with the Liberals.

I checked; it's only 64 votes altogether (the winning Liberal got 20 votes, or 31%).  In its rogueishness, it also reminds me of certain mobile or "institutional" polls (the latter of which seem to have been more prevalent in the past: psychiatric hospitals where fringe candidates overperformed at the expense of mainstreamers and the like)

I wonder if that's the case of people just voting randomly (in psychiatric hospitals)?

[Hatman 🍁]

Muskoka was much more interesting in the provincial election due to the Green strength there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.

What makes you say that?

In addition to what others have said, I get the feeling that they'd prefer to prop up the Conservatives over the Liberals if they held the balance of power.

[Hatman 🍁]

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.