2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results (user search)
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Author Topic: 2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results  (Read 59531 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« on: September 20, 2021, 05:44:16 PM »

Behave or get out of the thread.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2021, 10:27:57 AM »

Impressive in a way: an election result that is genuinely embarrassing for every single party leader involved. For the major national parties, Trudeau has demonstrated extremely poor judgment and an inability to safely read the electorate and that's not good. O'Toole has failed to make any progress whatsoever and for a party specifically designed to contest for power, that's really, really not good. I don't think there's an argument for him being given a second chance other than 'tradition'. As for Jagmeet Singh, I can't think of a single rational or logical reason for the NDP to keep him. The party's performances in its target seats were strikingly poor across the country, the loss of several open seats must count as actively alarming, and there's no sign of new voters being brought to the table anywhere.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2021, 05:42:49 PM »

Yeah, it's possible that a few CBC calls might end up being wrong in the end.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2021, 10:48:52 AM »

He was. Unfortunately he was also a poor leader of the new federal NDP. Not really his fault - it hardly being a surprise that an agrarian socialist who saw politics in essentially moralistic and religious terms struggled to connect with the 'new Canada' emerging in the 1960s - but an important warning that success in one context does not lead automatically or inevitably to success in others.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2021, 11:13:12 AM »

He was. Unfortunately he was also a poor leader of the new federal NDP. Not really his fault - it hardly being a surprise that an agrarian socialist who saw politics in essentially moralistic and religious terms struggled to connect with the 'new Canada' emerging in the 1960s - but an important warning that success in one context does not lead automatically or inevitably to success in others.
You think the credit he get's for the Canadian healthcare and welfare system is undue ?

Certainly not, but that's a separate issue and relates more to the success of the system that he pushed for (and which was implemented by his successor) in Saskatchewan, without which the sense of overwhelming momentum that proved critical would not have existed.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2021, 01:34:11 PM »


Long tradition of trade union activity due to resource industries (particularly logging) and the processing and shipping of the results. Of course that's a left-wing tradition that, under certain circumstances, can crack very hard the other way: the area was a Reform/CA stronghold in Canada's Long 1990s.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2021, 02:15:18 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2021, 07:44:45 PM by Filuwaúrdjan »

What do you mean by this? Why did Reform do so well there in the '90s?

There are areas quite similar - economically and socially - to the bulk of Vancouver Island south of the border in the western parts of both Washington and Oregon. The places in question used to be good territory for the Democrats even in bad years, they are... not now. If you follow.

And the answer to the latter is the phenomenon of Western Alienation, which was a much bigger, much more widely spread and (from the perspective of the Canadian State and the Central Canadian political establishment) much more threatening thing back then than it is now. The NDP equivocated on the big constitutional questions that dominated federal politics at the time, this wasn't what its usual base vote (let alone swing voters) on the Island wanted to hear and so they listened to the siren song of Right Populism. Then the credibility of the provincial NDP (temporarily) collapsed as a result of an entertainingly incompetent provincial administration* and the NDP were actually pushed into sub-15% results in some Island ridings by 2000. That they've since recovered is interesting and perhaps more significant than anyone really realises.

*The Premier at the time, incidentally, has now re-branded himself as one of Canada's leading Captains of Industry. Hilarious for a former hard-ish Left rabble-rouser, but, well, there's a certain type of utter chancer who will always, always land on their feet.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2021, 02:29:57 PM »

Yes to all of the above; also general unionization would be high I think from public sector workers (Victoria the BC capital being on the island) General west coast progressive-old hippie, new young "woke" vibe. Environmentalists and a solid Indigenous community.

Yes this is all there as well, though has been as liable to help (once) Liberal and (now) Green candidates as Dippers. But it all adds up to a landscape in which, for once, the NDP often benefit as the comparatively middle of the road option between relative extremes, at least on the sort of issues that are particularly sensitive on the Island...
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2021, 07:22:36 PM »

It's a curiosity as they've maintained a strong vote there even without much recent attention and even with quite frequent strongly contested Lib/Con contests. Which is more than can be said for some other places. It does seem like somewhere where it would make sense to find someone to nurse the seat on a long-term basis.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2021, 05:58:43 PM »

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2021, 09:04:03 AM »

Kind of amazing to think that the NDP ever won Beausejour of all places.

Very much a confirmation that in Canada any party really can win anywhere under the right circumstances.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2021, 01:15:10 PM »

I see that he was born in Worcestershire and grew up in Newport. Heh.
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