2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Benjamin Frank]

Economist Mike Moffatt has been breaking down the election results by urban/rural and everything in between on Twitter.  

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1442972922281218064
There are other similar tweets if you check his twitter feed. For disclosure:  I believe Moffatt has done consulting work for the federal Liberal government, but this seems to be strictly empirical.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3149738/conservative-vote-plunged-canadas-most-chinese-electorates-did?

"Conservative vote plunged in Canada’s most Chinese electorates. Did party pay price for tough stance on Beijing?"

I am surprised this actually made a difference.  Most of the BC Chinese are from HK and all things equal I would think they would vote the opposite of what the CCP tells them to vote for.  A bunch of them do have financial ties to HK but for the majority I cannot imagine the amount of money involved would make any sort of difference.

I mean, I am pro-CCP overall but I do not care what they say, I am voting Trump no matter what.  And we are talking about people that are more anti-CCP than pro-CCP.

Hmm, I'm not sure CCP policy explains it all. For one, Scheer was by no means the pro-CCP candidate in 2019. But I understand that feelings about the CCP are themselves polarizing within first-generation Chinese communities. Given that, I don't think this issue alone would create an almost universal LPC swing in areas with high Chinese-Canadian concentrations.

Just taking a guess here, could it have been outreach? Community outreach is hugely important in immigrant communities, especially ones with relatively low levels of English knowledge (CensusMapper shows that in both the GTA and MetroVan, the census tracts with the highest share of people who don't speak English or French correlate very strongly with tracts with high shares of Chinese-Canadians, more so than other immigrant groups). Given this, I assume outreach is even more important for this demographic, as language barrier can prevent one from meaningfully engaging with the national campaigns.

So if the Liberals did better at engaging with Chinese-Canadian communities, and/or the Conservatives did worse than before, that might explain it.

As Mung Beans and others have already pointed out, it had more to do with a pro-incumbent COVID-19 swing, than any meaningful demographic "replacement" of 97er Hong Kongers with (not necessarily Cantonese speaking) Mainland Chinese arrivals.

I wonder what if any swings there were in heavily Korean (Kim's Convenience) or Filipino areas; other posters have remarked that certain heavily South Asian areas either had no swing (Sri Lankan/Tamil) or swung somewhat Tory (Sikh/Punjabi).

Conservatives and their right wing media allies are trying to blame the Chinese Communist Party. I think the evidence of this is very weak.  Contrary to the first post, Conservative support dropped in many ridings with large South Asian populations, especially in the west:  Calgary-Skyview, Vancouver South and, to some degree, Surrey.  The Steveston-Richmond East riding also has a fair sized South Asian population (though the Chinese population is 4 times larger) as is evident in that the new M.P is Parm Bains.

The explanation most given for this is that those on the conservative side in both the South Asian and East Asian communities due to their religious beliefs punished the Conservatives for kowtowing to Quebec on Bill 21, the religious symbols law.

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't know if this has been mentioned, the gender gap among Members of the House of Commons between the two main parties appears to be closing (as might also be the case in the United States.)

Of the 25 new Liberal M.Ps, 14 are men and 11 are women.
of the 17 new Conservative M.Ps, 10 are men and 7 are women.

[Benjamin Frank]

10 of the 52 new M.Ps are lawyers (though not all were practicing lawyers prior to getting elected) and 3 are economists, though several others have degrees in economics.  Maybe Interestingly, two of the three economists are new Bloc M.Ps.

[Benjamin Frank]

The new Green M.P Mike Morrice has an interesting background as an environmental consultant to businesses.  How long before the Liberals try to entice him to join them?

[Benjamin Frank]

Final post for me right now,

The NDP is being squeezed in that their seats are concentrated in British Columbia (13/25.) In Ontario NDP support has gone from 16.0% in 2015 to 16.8 to 17.9 as their seat count has declined from 8 in 2015 to 6 to 5. The problem for the NDP in Ontario is that everywhere they have concentrated support, the Liberals do as well.  

The NDP seems to be safer in Winnipeg where their seats are more 'working class' like Vancouver East, but even in British Columbia, leader Jagmeet Singh won only 40-30% over his Liberal opponent and Vancouver-Kingsway (Don Davies) and Burnaby-New Westminster (Peter Julian) are likely only safe ridings due to the popularity of their M.Ps.

To be sure though, it was the N.D.P that won Port Moody-Coquitlam over the Conservatives and not the Liberals.

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

Were for some reason Jagmeet Sigh to step down, these are the M.Ps based on their popularity in their ridings, that I could see running for leader:

1.Laurel Collins, Victoria (not as popular as the others, but with 13/25 NDP ridings in B.C, I think one of them would have to run.)
2.Heather McPherson, Edmonton-Strathcona
3.Leah Gazan, Winnipeg Centre
4.Daniel Blaikie, Elmwood-Transcona
5.Matthew Green, Hamilton Centre
6.Alexandre Boulerice, Rosemont-La Petite Petrie

For what it's worth, since this is all academic anyway, I could see some members of legislative assemblies run as well, like maybe David Eby in Vancouver, Bowinn Ma in North Vancouver,  Sara Singh in Brampton, and Claudia Chender in Halifax.  I'm sure some Ontario  New Democrats would like Andrea Horwath to run as well, mostly to get rid of her.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

More immediately, I'd assume that's mostly just picking off the entrails of the Green vote.

I suspect a lot of it are people who used to vote for the provincial Liberals but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.  That also seems to be the case for many of the people in Greater Vancouver who voted Liberal provincially up to 2013 but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.

[Benjamin Frank]

It's very corrosive for Conservatives to blame their poor performance among Chinese-Canadians on interference on a hostile foreign power

What seems more likely is what others have noted in this thread: East Asian groups are among those who have most complied with and support expanding when necessary pandemic restrictions. Perhaps it is something learned from SARS. Perhaps it is simply cultural and how before all this I often saw Japanese in Japantown go about their business with some form of face mask if they had a cold or flu. East Asians are however among the most vaccinated in the US. Pandemic politics puts these groups at odds with any party proposing or with the image of weakness on COVID. The points towards the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, which explains precinct data and increased relative demographic turnout from all three contests.

Just a guess. But it is becoming a observable trend with multiple datapoints.

Yeah, I agree.  They were "masking before masking was cool", so to speak, so it all comes second nature to them--and of course, the SARS crisis had a particular immediacy when it came to Toronto's Chinese.  So to them, CPC soft-pedalling would seem tin-eared, and PPC militancy outright unseemly.  (And within a society and culture marked by resolute discipline, Bernierite freedom-mongering is totally off-orbit--though one can understand how they might have found Stephen Harper's stolidity admirable.)

This community took the virus very seriously, well before it was even named COVID-19. Anecdotally, the malls of Richmond, which are normally bustling with shoppers and diners, became virtually dead as early as February 2020 - a whole month before the rest of the western world took notice. The idea that COVID-19 could be handwaved away as "no big deal" is simply terrifying, especially since the governments in the Chinese-speaking world took a zero tolerance policy towards the virus. It was no surprise that the predominately Chinese-Canadian municipalities had a much lower case rate and a much higher vaccination rate. Hence, the CPC's pandering to anti-vaxxers, and calling Trudeau's proposal for vaccine mandates as "divisive", struck this politically heterogenous group as dangerous.

This is something that definitely highlights a Conservative inconsistency.

Tasha Kheiriddin, a National Post columnist, who is essentially the mouthpiece of the Conservative Party in the press called for a Parliamentary investigation (or some other form of investigation) into the (alleged) 'Chinese interference' in the Canadian election.

This is the Conservative and right wing media inconsistency:

The Canadian mainstream media and the Conservatives both opposed C-10 the bill from Heritage Minister Steven Guilbeault that would have attempted to regulate misinformation on social media. I'm pretty sure among those in opposition was Tasha Kheiriddin But, that is actually besides the point.

So, this article mentions 'foreign interference' but what exactly does that mean?  If a foreign government puts out misinformation but it's reposted by a Canadian or a non-citizen living in Canada, is that foreign interference?  don't see how that could be considered 'foreign interference' if it's reposted by somebody legally living in Canada.  Prior to the election, as is evidenced by their opposition to C-10, the Conservatives and the mainstream media clearly didn't consider it 'foreign interference' either.  

Prior to the election, the mainstream media and the Conservatives would have said this investigation that Tasha Kheiriddin is asking for is potentially chilling to free speech.  After all, if a person didn't know where some 'fact' originated and was concerned that it might have originated from a foreign government and that their facebook or twitter post could be taken down as a result and that they might get suspended from facebook or twitter over it, obviously they're likely to think twice before posting.

However, I personally agree with her.  I think misinformation is corrosive in a democracy, and needs regulation.  However, I think this is true whether it is begins from a foreign source or a domestic source. So, if there is any such investigation by Parliament into this alleged Chinese interference that allegedly was to hurt the Conservative election chances, it can only end up leading to the Conservatives and the National Post anyway, if not ultimately supporting C-10. then certainly agreeing with at least some of the basic principles behind C-10 and off of their absolutist position in favor of 'free speech.'

[Benjamin Frank]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

There is definitely a trend of people in remote communities to the Conservatives, but what would likely hold that back are the large amount of unionized private sector workers and the large indigenous populations in Northern Ontario.

[Benjamin Frank]

In the riding of Chateauguay-La Colle, the only riding in Quebec that changed from the last election, there will be a recount.  Apparently a 41 vote total for a candidate was recorded as 410 votes.  I guess it isn't known which party benefited, but since the Liberal lost by less than 300 votes, if it was the Bloc, that would flip the riding back to the Liberals.

[Benjamin Frank]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

There is definitely a trend of people in remote communities to the Conservatives, but what would likely hold that back are the large amount of unionized private sector workers and the large indigenous populations in Northern Ontario.

Not sure about unions.  While unionized workers tend to lean left, that is largely due to public sector union members which for obvious reasons don't vote Conservative.  But amongst private sector union members, I believe Tories are quite competitive.  Not sure if won this or not, but definitely much stronger than in past.  After all private sector union members are disproportionately white males over 50 without a college degree and that group has trended rightward throughout developed world.  Public sector union members more likely to live in cities, more women than men, and tend to be fairly ethnically diverse too as well as most usually have a post secondary degree. 

Disagree on the private sector unions, even if private sector union workers don't vote Liberal they would likely be far more likely to vote Conservative if not unionized, but many of them vote NDP.  So, in a number of ridings, these voters being in unions likely does prevent the Conservatives from winning those ridings.  I think we also see in those two ridings held by the NDP in Northern Ontario as well as in the Skeena-Bulkley Valley Riding and in some of the ridings in more rural/remote Northern Vancouver Island that private sector unions can deliver ridings to the NDP.

[Benjamin Frank]

Disagree on the private sector unions, even if private sector union workers don't vote Liberal they would likely be far more likely to vote Conservative if not unionized, but many of them vote NDP.  So, in a number of ridings, these voters being in unions likely does prevent the Conservatives from winning those ridings.  I think we also see in those two ridings held by the NDP in Northern Ontario as well as in the Skeena-Bulkley Valley Riding and in some of the ridings in more rural/remote Northern Vancouver Island that private sector unions can deliver ridings to the NDP.

True, but note the reduced margins in Skeena and North Island as well as Charlie Angus's swooning share.  There's vulnerability around the edges.

That said, you're correct in that there *is* a never-say-never resilience to the NDP, so I wouldn't write things off for them completely or terminally--it helps that unlike Labour in Britain, they've never carried the stigma of being a federal "party of government".  And hey--in Oshawa, their share remained stable, and the Con share went up less than a point, even though O'Toole's next door.  If there's anyplace that's primed to put the "red wall breach" to the test, it's Canada--sort of like how a 2016-style populist Berniecrat would have a better chance in Iron Range Minnesota than a rank-and-file mainstream Dem or an overly woke/millennial AOC type.  (All it requires is augmenting Jagmeet's existing base in the latter.)

North Island has long been competitive between the NDP and the Conservatives. Conservative John Duncan represented the area from 2004-2006 and from 2008-2015.

There are parts of Northern Vancouver Island that are much more right leaning than Vancouver Island as a whole: specifically Parksville-Qualicum and some of the Comox area.

[Benjamin Frank]

I think areas with lots of private sector unions a mix.  Its true Vancouver Island stays competitive for NDP, but BC Interior I believe has high rate of private sector unions.  While Okanagan Valley and Peace River area have never gone NDP (where unionization rates low), back in 90s NDP used to win in Kamloops and Prince George whereas nowadays both vote for parties on right at both levels.  In Northern Ontario true but Southern Ontario mixed.  Hamilton and Windsor still very weak for Tories, but Oshawa, Essex, Brantford-Brant which prior to merger rarely voted for parties on right now go Tory most of the time.  And Niagara Centre I think is a low hanging fruit that Tories could definitely win in a future election.  I think in Ontario, its more private sector unions favour NDP in Northern Ontario and urban ridings, but favour Tories in more smaller communities in Southern Ontario and likewise favour NDP in coastal areas, but Tories in Interior.  Skeena-Bulkley Valley I think goes NDP more due to large aboriginal population.  Yes won when Nathan Cullen was leader but I've noticed provincially that BC NDP generally gets over 80% on reserves or predominately First Nation areas, but outside those BC Liberals tend to win albeit much narrower margins and if federal results follow similar pattern, that would suggest large Aboriginal population not private sector unions reason they are holding it.  Now South Okanagan-West Kootenay agreed as Trail and Castlegar do seem unlike rest of Interior to have remained loyal to NDP.  Also in Grand Forks you have big Dhukobor community and I suspect due to communal lifestyle and pacifism, they mostly go NDP too.

Part of it could be type of job too.  I've found in BC, forestry workers tend to favour NDP, but those in resource sector more likely to vote Tory.  Although mining in other provinces mostly NDP still.  Part of reason Interior goes Conservative is NDP has a strong environmental wing which was much weaker in 90s and many worry they have too much influence and will hurt jobs.  Heck even in 2005 and 2009, NDP was competitive provincially in Cariboo and East Kootenays, but those now solidly BC Liberal despite most of province swinging away from them.

What's interesting on VanIsland is that the NDP(more so) and CPC(lesser) and LPC(much less) are benefiting from the collapse of the Greens, 2021 vs 2019. (Using CBC so I hope they are updated!)

North Island-Powell River - NDP+3, CPC +4, GRN -7, LPC -0
Courtney-Alberni - NDP+3, CPC -1, LPC +1, GRN -8
Nanaimo-Ladysmith - NDP+6, CPC +2, GRN -8, LPC+1
Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - NDP+7, CPC+3, GRN-14(!), LPC+1
Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke NDP+9, LPC+5, CPC+3, GRN-17(!!)
Victoria - NDP+11, LPC+5, CPC+2, GRN-18(!!)
Saanich-Gulf Islands - GRN-11, CPC+3, NDP+6, LPC+2

Others have commented that there may be a trend towards the LPC, right now it's not really happening in fact the southern portion is trending much more NDP then anything else right now. The NPD is >40% in every riding but two, Nanaimo-Laydsmith and Saanich-Gulf Islands. This is the new-ish NDP heartland of the country.

It is really interesting the trend away from the NDP is some interior/north areas, and some areas swinging more to the NDP.
NDP losing (provincially) Columbia River-Revelstoke and Skeena in 2017, and even with a massive victory in 2020 they failed to win those seats back with only a very small increase in vote should worry the party that their old base isn't being attracted back. I think you hit it on the perception of the party by this group. However, the NDP gained Boundary-Similkameen (big swing) and Vernon-Monashee (decent swing) which are closer in to Kelowna and the lower mainland. Both also benefits of a weaker/no green.
Federally though, in Kooteny-Columbia the NDP won the same % of the vote, 37% in 2021 as they did in 2015 but failed to win the seat this time but did in 2015. The CPC lost 2% but they could afford to and still won with 43% b/c the LPC vote crashed here and pretty much all swung CPC (9% in 2021/2019 vs 19% in 2015). Where the LPC vote crashes into matters; in South Okanagan-West Boundary the LPC vote moved to the NDP, with the NDP+5, CPC-0, LPC-5, making this seat much safer for the NDP then just last election when the NDP only won by about 1% or so.

In Skeena-Bulkley Valley the margin is getting smaller, but not by much; 6% margin vs 7% in 2019. Both the NDP and CPC saw their votes increase, NDP+2, CPC+3, coming from the LPC-3 and GRN-3. We are really seeing a polarization (outside of the lower mainland) of the vote, LPC losing and their vote shifting either NDP or CPC, mirroring the politics on the provincial level. This hurts and helps the NDP, depending where you are in the province. Gaining interior ridings Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo may not be insight unless the NDP is well above +20% nationally, even if some harken back to when the NDP held this. But ridings like Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge are in sight even if the NDP is at +18% nationally.
It goes back to the NDP playing the progressive-populist-pocketbook playbook in these rural-resource-working class seats.

1.As much as things are polarized as they are in the United States, and not too many people seem to vote for the local candidate, there does seem to be the oddly contradictory trend in both Canada and the United States, that, at least for some rookie M.Ps (and members of the House) they receive a lower share of the vote before they become incumbents.  That could have been the case with Laurel Collins in Victoria in 2015.   

2.I wouldn't call Vancouver Island the 'newish' heartland of the NDP.  Provincially, when the Liberals were in power, many New Democrats themselves would joke that Vancouver Island should separate from British Columbia and rename itself 'The People's Republic of Vancouver Island.'

[Benjamin Frank]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

Most NHLers I suspect are Conservative. Bobby Orr endorsed Trump, and Gretzky is a well known Conservative.

However, there have been some Liberal hockey players in the past. Ken Dryden was an MP, and Frank Mahovlich was a Senator.

Don't forget Red Kelly either, who was a Grit MP during the Pearson years.

Or Lionel Conacher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lionel_Conacher

Thomas Steen was a star hockey player for the Winnipeg Jets and ran for the Conservatives federally in 2008 in Elmwood-Transcona.

Longtime CBC Hockey Night in Canada analyst Howie Meeker ("shoot the puck!", "Keep your stick on the ice") was a Progressive Conservative M.P while still playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs, from 1951-1953.

Ron Lemieux a Manitoba New Democratic MLA and cabinet minister was drafted by the Pittsburgh Penguins but never made it to the NHL, though he did play minor league hockey. I believe he suffered a career ending injury.

[Benjamin Frank]

I remember Andrew Ference spoke at the 2009 NDP convention.

Not many athletes are New Democrats, alas. Most amateur athletes run for the Liberals, though more "western" sports like football and curling skew more conservative.

Didn't the NDP run a candidate this election in Levis, QC who had been a Olympic medallist?   

I didn't know this! Though it appears she didn't win any Olympic medals.

Tommy Douglas himself was a champion amateur boxer.  Betty Baxter ran for the NDP against Kim Campbell in 1993 in Vancouver Centre, she was a former national volleyball team member who was the coach of the women's national volleyball team until she was fired for being a lesbian. 

For those who dislike 'identity politics' keep in mind that she was fired for being a lesbian less than 40 years ago, well within the life span of many living people. 

As far as I can recall though, in that campaign, Betty Baxter emphasized more her business background, as she owned a sports education consulting company.

[Benjamin Frank]

Not sure how long it's been since a recount actually changed a result (1988 maybe, though there've probably been others since then); Trois-Rivieres is still to complete its recount, and Nunavut has yet to publish a validated result. Can't remember how long it took Nunavut to do that two years ago, though I do remember it was the last one then too.

Neither Davenport nor Brome - Missisquoi are listed yet on the Elections Canada recount page, though I imagine they'll pop up soon.

Elections Canada said it was the first time since 2008 that a judicial recount has changed the result of an election. Spokesperson Natasha Gauthier said “human error” resulted in incorrectly recording the count from one box of advance poll ballots. The error had 396 Liberal votes mistakenly recorded as NDP votes, while 70 votes for the NDP candidate were mistakenly attributed to Shanahan.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/national/election-2021/recount-gives-chateauguay-lacolle-to-liberals-by-12-votes

Don't know if this was mentioned here or not, but the Charleswood... riding in Winnipeg was won by the Conservatives by 460 votes in the end, after the Conservative led by just 24 votes in the preliminary count.  There was a similar error to the one in Chateauguay...

"One error caught in the validation process was a transcription error that involved results written out by hand, Gauthier added." 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8226655/charleswood-st-james-headingley-assiniboia-marty-morantz-doug-eyolfson/

There might have been a similar mistake made in Davenport.  It seems Elections Canada workers had some unfortunate problems due to this unnecessary Covid election.

[Benjamin Frank]

These are the number of narrow defeats for each party.  I counted a narrow defeat as any riding lost by around 12.5%.  I chose 12.5% for my cutoff, after initially having it at 10%, because I kept wanting to find more close riding losses for the N.D.P but many of the ridings they lost were somewhere between 10-12.5%, so I decided to make it 12.5%

I have it at 'around' 12.5% because there were a handful of ridings that were lost by just more than 12.5% that I thought should be included because the trend in the region seemed to be in that direction. For instance, I counted Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing as a narrow defeat for the Conservatives even though they lost it by 12.7% to the N.D.P because the trend in Northern Ontario seems to be towards the Conservatives, as has already been mentioned in this thread.  Of course, this is somewhat academic as there should be riding redistribution before the next election.

P.Cs: in addition to winning 119 ridings, had narrow defeats in another 61 ridings.  So, on that basis they could form a reasonably comfortable majority government, but, as has also already been mentioned here, it's hard to see the Conservatives winning some of these ridings without having to position themselves in a way that would cost them others.

Liberals: in addition to winning 160 ridings (but at least one less M.P), had narrow defeats another 33 ridings. Obviously this means they are in the best position to form a majority government, but while the Conservative problem is ideological, the Liberals problem seems to be more regional.  While a good number of the ridings are urban/suburban, there are also a number of more rural ridings, and 10 of the ridings are in Quebec versus the B.Q.

NDP: in addition to winning 25 ridings, had narrow defeats in another 35 ridings.  As I said though, 14 or 15 of those ridings were losses by between 10% and around 12.5%.  I believe 17 of the ridings were in Ontario, which shouldn't be a surprise given that they only won 5 of the 121 Ontario ridings.

B.Q: In addition to winning 32 ridings, narrowly lost another 12 ridings, 11 to the Liberals and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord to the Conservatives.

Green: In addition to winning 2 ridings, narrowly lost their Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding to the N.D.P.

20 ridings were 3 way races
1.Beauport-Limoilou
2.Trois Rivieres
3.Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
4.Hamilton Mountain
5.London North Centre
6.London West
7.Niagara Centre
8.Nickel Belt
9.Sudbury
10.Thunder Bay-Rainy River
11.Timmins-James Bay
12.Windsor-Tecumseh
13.Edmonton Centre
14.Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam
15.Nanaimo-Ladysmith
16.Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
17.Port Moody-Coquitlam
18.Vancouver-Granville
19.West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
20.Yukon

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/withfilesfrom/status/1446842137929306112?s=20
A look at the PPC strength by Election Day poll in southern Manitoba (according to the article, this is preliminary data from Elections Canada, does anyone know if preliminary poll data is available somewhere to download for all ridings?)

Anyways, the PPC did best in Mennonite communities, which are more anti-vax than other surrounding communities.

I agree with the broader point on this, that the PPC received a great deal of support from Covidiots, but as a matter of record, Maxime Bernier received 18.2% of the vote in his Beauce riding.

Obviously that is a unique case as he is both the party leader and a longtime former M.P for the riding, so it can't be said with nearly anywhere the same degree of certainty that his votes in Beauce came from Covidiots.

[Benjamin Frank]

I missed a riding in my previous post, this is the final breakdown of narrow losses, which, as I posted previously is any riding lost by less than 12.5% with a handful of exceptions of ridings lost between 12.5-13% based on the seeming trends.  As I also posted above this is probably academic given that there will likely be riding redistribution prior to the next election, but, for instance, for the NDP, I included two ridings they lost by slightly more than 12.5%

1.Saskatoon-University lost by 12.6%  Maybe if the NDP didn't keep running Claire Card there they'd do better, though she seems like a nice enough person to me.

2.Kenora lost by 12.7%.  In the previous post I said that Northern Ontario seems to be trending Conservative, but since things are probably still enough in flux that they could go either way, I decided to include that as well. Also, to be honest, if I didn't include it the NDP would be at 59 total winnable ridings, and I wanted a nice round number.

I have an accounting diploma, so I made sure all the totals balanced:

Narrow losses:
Conservatives: 61
Liberal: 33
NDP: 35
B.Q: 12
Green: 1
Total: 142
Less 3 way races: 20
Total 122 ridings of 338
or 216/338 ridings were not competitive.

Competitive ridings in each province/territory or region:
Atlantic: 13/32
Quebec: 25/78
Ontario: 52/121
Manitoba: 2/14
Saskatchewan: 3/14
Alberta: 5/34
British Columbia: 19/42
Territories: 3/3
Total 122/338

Range
Liberals (including Spadina-Fort York)
Atlantic: 15-28
Quebec: 23-45
Ontario: 42-89
Manitoba: 4-6
Saskatchewan: 0-0
Alberta: 0-3
British Columbia: 6-19
Territories: 0-3
Total: 90-193

Conservatives
Atlantic: 4-15
Quebec: 9-13
Ontario: 24-71
Manitoba: 5-7
Saskatchewan: 11-14
Alberta: 28-33
British Columbia: 10-26
Territories: 0-1
Total 91-180 (Also a nice round number!)

NDP
Atlantic: 0-2
Quebec: 1-3
Ontario: 3-22
Manitoba: 3-3
Saskatchewan: 0-3
Alberta: 1-4
British Columbia: 6-20
Territories: 0-3
Total: 14-60

Green
Ontario: 0-1
British Columbia: 1-2
Total 1-3

B.Q
Quebec: 20-44

Now here comes the accounting
Safe ridings for each party
Liberal: 90
Conservative: 91
NDP: 14
Green: 1
B.Q: 20
Total: 216

And, total winnable ridings for each party
Liberal: 193
Conservative: 180
NDP: 60
Green: 3
B.Q: 44
Total: 480

480 = 338 ridings + 122 competitive ridings + 20 three way race ridings.

If anybody is interested, I could redo this with a hard 10% gap as the maximum to be considered a 'close riding.'

[Benjamin Frank]

I counted a narrow defeat as any riding lost by around 12.5%.  I chose 12.5% for my cutoff, after initially having it at 10%, because I kept wanting to find more close riding losses for the N.D.P but many of the ridings they lost were somewhere between 10-12.5%, so I decided to make it 12.5%

Selection bias.

Any cutoff point for what is and isn't a narrow defeat is arbitrary.  It's only a half a dozen or so ridings that were greater than 12.5% that I considered to be narrow defeats. 

If you're an American and commenting on a Canadian election, you should be aware that Canadian ridings tend to have far greater swings from election to election than American U.S House districts.  So, whereas a 55-45% U.S House district is barely competitive unless that was the result in a wave year, in Canada that's much more competitive historically.

[Benjamin Frank]

Is there a possible way Tories can make inroads in Quebec to make their path easier . Say they got 30 seats in Quebec and say 16 in Atlantic Canada and held all the Scheer seats , that would take them to 153 seats meaning they only need a little over 50 in Ontario to get a majority

The last time the (Progressive) Conservatives dominated Quebec was with Brian Mulroney in the 1984 and 1988 Quebec elections.  1984 was about 'time for a change' probably as much as the 'native son' aspects.  With the brief exception of in 1979, the Liberals had been in power from 1963-1984.  Since 1935, the (Progressive) Conservatives have basically only come to power when voters tire of long Liberal governments.

I'm sure there are people who know a lot more on this than I do, but Quebecers seems to swing, especially on economics, between the center left and the center right, as they seem to go through periods of sort of championing government involvement in the economy, and then go through periods of championing businesses, especially, obviously, Quebec businesses.

The 1988 election was the perfect storm for the Progressive Conservatives in Quebec. This was a period with Liberal Premier Robert Bourassa who was a pro-business/pro economic development especially with hydro electric power Liberal, a time when Quebecers were pro businesses with Quebec business success stories like Bombardier, and an election fought on free trade that both the separatists and the federalists supported.  The federalists thought it would be good for businesses, while the separatists thought that being part of a wider free trade group would pave the way for Quebec independence.   Both of the major provincial parties in Quebec at that time at least tacitly endorsed the Progressive Conservatives.

In 1993, Quebec of course swung heavily to the Bloc Quebecois and remained but less so in 1997.  In the 2000 election the Liberals under Prime Minister Chretien had increased their standing to the point where the election result was basically a tie.  In 2004, the polling prior to the Sponsorship scandal showed Quebec swinging heavily to the Liberals under Prime Minister Paul Martin, an Anglo Quebecer (originally from Windsor, Ontario where his father was a long time M.P.)  But, after the sponsorship scandal, Quebec instead swung back heavily to the Bloc Quebecois.

In 2011, of course the province swung away from the Bloc which had come to be seen as ineffective in Ottawa and to the NDP led by the Ontarian Jack Layton whose father (Robert Layton) was a Cabinet Minister from the Montreal area in the Mulroney Cabinet.

So, that's the history.  My takeaway is that:
1.With the exception of somewhat 1984, more-so 1988 and 2011 that Montreal, with the somewhat exception of East End Montreal, has been heavily Liberal.

2.Quebecers including in Montreal can swing heavily to one political party and that the party doesn't have to be led by a Quebecer, though having roots in Quebec certainly seems to help.

Quebec under Francois Legault does seem to have shifted back to the center right on economics.  I believe this is one of the reasons why the Conservatives were so hopeful initially of making major gains in Quebec and why they shamelessly pandered to Quebec.

I think the Conservatives can try to gain seats in Quebec going one of two ways, but either way, I think they have to be more 'Red Tories.'  It seems that even in the Quebec City area, which seems to be the most conservative region in Quebec, that even conservatives there generally prefer 'Red Tories.'

Regionally, the Bloc Quebecois, other than to some degree the Montreal suburbs, hold ridings that fit the Conservative profile outside of Quebec: smaller cities, towns and rural areas.  Those are definitely the areas where the Conservatives seemed to focus on this election, And polling does show that for many Quebecers in these areas that vote Bloc, their second choice is often the Conservatives. However, obviously under this scenario, the Bloc would basically need to disappear.  

I think there might be a second possibility though for a 'Red Tory' party that would be consistent with prior elections, but it would take for the public to get sick of the Liberals, that the Conservatives in Quebec focus more on Montreal and the Gatineau area with the argument that 'the Liberals take you for granted.'  Clearly the Conservatives have not done well in Montreal or the Gatineau for more than 30 years now, but we have seen how Quebecers can swing dramatically from one election to the next.  

I believe this was somewhat the strategy that Joe Clark tried in 1979 (but the Liberals were dominant throughout Quebec at that time, not just in Montreal) but rather than simply run on 'time for a change' he tried to oppose Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau's political/philosophical views on Federalism with the argument that Canada was a 'community of communities.'  Had I voted in that election, I would have voted Progressive Conservative, but the net result for Joe Clark was that the P.Cs lost one of their three seats in Quebec. (The Liberals got a popular P.C M.P Claude Wagner to retire by appointing him as a judge and they gained his riding.)

[Benjamin Frank]

I counted a narrow defeat as any riding lost by around 12.5%.  I chose 12.5% for my cutoff, after initially having it at 10%, because I kept wanting to find more close riding losses for the N.D.P but many of the ridings they lost were somewhere between 10-12.5%, so I decided to make it 12.5%

Selection bias.

Any cutoff point for what is and isn't a narrow defeat is arbitrary.  It's only a half a dozen or so ridings that were greater than 12.5% that I considered to be narrow defeats.  

You chose to change your definition of what you considered close to benefit a particular group. Granted, you can do the results for 10%, but if you're wanting to do a mathematical analysis of results, you need to take a cruel unsympathetic point of view and not caring what is outside or inside based on how it makes your results look unless you're specifically being a blind partisan, perhaps even to yourself. Numbers don't have feelings. So you change it from 10% to 12.5% to help the NDP, and then you include extra results right outside that number, so really it's not 12.5%, it's 13%. You lay out in your post the case you want to make and then before you even start diving into the numbers make your case more wishy-washy. Just trying to help you become better.

Two points here:
1.I disagree with your assertion that 'hard numbers' automatically provide the best analysis.  'Hard numbers' are often a rather simple analysis.  They don't take into consideration either the elasticities of a riding or the trends in the riding.  I don't really know the elasticities in any riding, but I did try to take into account the trends.  I'm not saying that 'hard numbers don't provide a reasonable analysis, but they are merely one method and I don't think there is necessarily any one best method.  I agree that the 'hybrid' method I used often doesn't satisfy anybody.

2.I'm not a partisan New Democrat, but I know that many people in this board are partisan New Democrats, and all I was trying to do was avoid hurting their feelings.

When I posted I was thinking of an interview that a Much Music journalist, a man named Kim Clark Champniss did with the Bee Gees.  I forget the question, but one of the Bee Gees was so enraged with one question that he temporarily walked out of the interview, and one of his brothers said to Champniss something like "You had to do that, didn't you?  He's really a lovely man, but he's sensitive and you just had to piss him off, didn't you?"

With that, I did indeed follow up and do the breakdown with a hard 10% gap, which I'm going to post right now.

[Benjamin Frank]

This is the breakdown of ridings with a hard 10% gap.  

With this, there are just 12 ridings that were three way races.
1.Beauport-Limoilou
2.Trois Rivieres
3.Hamilton-Mountain (Hamilton Mountain?)
4.Nickel Belt
5.Sudbury
6.Thunder Bay-Rainy River
7.Windsor-Tecumseh
8.Edmonton Centre
9.Nanaimo-Ladysmith
10.Port Moody-Coquitlam
11.Vancouver-Granville
12.West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country-Delhi-Seoul-Washington-New York
(sorry, just protesting the silly long name.)

There are 90 competitive ridings won by less than 10%
Atlantic: 9
Quebec: 20
Ontario: 36
Manitoba: 1
Saskatchewan: 1
Alberta: 4
British Columbia: 17
Territories: 2
Total: 90

Close losses by Party
Conservative: 51
Liberal: 20
NDP: 20
B.Q: 10
Green: 1
Total: 102

Close wins by Party
Conservative: 16
Liberal: 57
NDP: 8
B.Q: 9
Total: 90

Remember, there were 12 three way races, and 102-90= 12

Range:
Conservative: 103-170
Liberal: 103-180
NDP: 17-45
B.Q: 23-42
Green: 2-3
Total: 248-440

338 total ridings - 90 close ridings = 248 'safe' ridings.
338 total ridings +90 close ridings + 12 three way races = 440

The Conservatives won 16 of 67 ridings that they were competitive in.
The Liberals won 57 of 77 ridings that they were competitive in.
The NDP won 8 of 28 ridings that they were competitive in.  

The main thing though obviously about the NDP, is that with a 10% cutoff, the NDP could probably be classified as a 'large fringe party' at least in terms of ability to win or even be competitive in ridings.  

Reluctance to point that out is why I went with the 'not hard' 12.5% cutoff.

[Benjamin Frank]

These are the close losses by party and their losing gap. 
Bolded ridings are three way races

Liberal
1.Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame 0.9%, defeated Liberal incumbent
2.South Shore-St. Margaret's, 3.8, defeated Liberal incumbent
3.Miramichi-Grand Lake, 4.4, Liberal open seat
4.Beauport-Limoilou, 5.7
5.La Prairie, 9.1
6.Longeuil-St. Hubert, 2.9
7.Riviere des Mille Iles, 5.3
8.Shefford, 8.4
9.Therese de Blainville, 6.0
10.Trois Rivieres, 0.9
11.Bay of Quinte, 4.8, defeated Liberal incumbent
12.Flamborough-Glanbrook, 5.1
13.King-Vaughan, 2.2, defeated Liberal incumbent
14.Niagara Falls, 4.4
15.Peterborough-Kawartha, 3.9, defeated Liberal incumbent
16.Charleswood-St. James- Assiniboia-Headingly-Nickel Back-Northern Pikes, 1.0

(Given that this is a riding in the city of Winnipeg, it's an even sillier name, as it's as lengthy as a name for a rural riding, so it can be a bit confusing.  'Headingly' reminded me of the awful Canadian band Headley, so that's bound to lead a Canadian with music taste to other awful Canadian bands like Nickel Back and the Northern Pikes.)

17.Edmonton-Mill Wood, 3.9
18.Burnaby South, 9.9
19.Port Moody-Coquitlam, 9.9
20.South Surrey-White Rock, 3.5

[Benjamin Frank]

NDP
1.Halifax, 3.0%
2.Berthier-Maskinonge, 1.7
3.Laurier-Sainte Marie, 5.1
4.Davenport, 0.1
5.Essex, 9.3
6.Hamilton-Mountain, 1.7, NDP open seat
7.Nickel Belt, 8.6
8.Parkdale-High Park, 3.3
9.Spadina-Fort York, 4.4
10.Sudbury, 5.0
11.Thunder Bay-Rainy River, 5.8
12.Windsor-Tecumseh, 1.1
13.Saskatoon West, 6.1
14.Edmonton Centre, 4.9
15.Kootenay-Columbia, 5.3
16.Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, 4.8
17.Vancouver-Centre, 9.7
18.Vancouver-Granville, 0.9
19.West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, 8.3
20.Northwest Territories, 5.9