2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results (user search)
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Author Topic: 2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results  (Read 59554 times)
Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« on: September 21, 2021, 07:07:43 AM »

People call Justin Trudeau a fake feminist but it sure looks to me like the only winners of the election he called were Chrystia Freeland, Leslyn Lewis, Rachel Notley and Elizabeth May.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2021, 03:41:58 PM »
« Edited: September 21, 2021, 03:55:35 PM by The Woman from Edward Hopper's 'Automat' »

I don’t know if Angus would be the best bet. I think Timmins is getting tired of him. He’s no Gilles Bisson. To be honest I think he should step down next election so the NDP can run a fresh face.
His result in his seat was poor but it's noteworthy that the major swing seems to have been to the PPC. Is that a particularly unvaxxed area?

The NDP seems to have succeeded in a limited sense in Montreal; after all the churn of the last decade, its position in Montreal is at least as strong as in Toronto. Alexandre Boulerice's seat is safe enough and there's obvious and readily identifiable room to grow, which the NDP certainly didn't have in Quebec twenty years ago. Aside from the special case of Berthier—Maskinongé, the NDP vote across the province has held up in the sort of places you'd expect; in Sherbrooke, for instance, despite running a new candidate against the Liberal incumbent and a Bloc star candidate, the NDP managed 14% and third place. That's not exactly a good number, but it's indicative of the sort of people that are voting NDP in Quebec at this point.
Yes, the NDP didn't do well this time but it's certainly conceivable that they'll win Laurier-Sainte Marie, Outremont and/or Hochelaga if the Liberals become unpopular in Quebec, which was not the case at all pre-Layton. They do much, much worse in immigrant-heavy and nationalist working-class areas, but while that's very bad for a social democratic party, it's at least a different class of problem.

I'd go even further and say that at this point the main difference between Quebec and Ontario is the lack of any other areas of strength - in Ontario, the NDP has (to an extent, as this election shows) Northern Ontario and some (post)industrial areas to fall back on if they don't win places like Toronto-Danforth or Parkdale-High Park, in Quebec the equivalent areas currently mostly vote Bloc and CAQ and the NDP was a non-factor there - even if they voted NDP in 2015. Whether they can ever rebuild any support there under another leader, or if their winning those areas was purely an artifact of the Orange Crush artificially sustained by Mulcair, is one of the biggest questions facing the NDP in Quebec going forward.

I'd also add that Sherbrooke is probably not even a terrible result in this context - the NDP had a paper candidate and, given that this is Canada, it's the sort of percentage that could theoretically be built on, especially seeing as QS holds the equivalent provincial seat.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2021, 05:23:29 PM »

I hadn't realised that basically none of those had been counted, maybe a few more close ridings could change hands after all.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2021, 07:56:20 AM »

Singh should of course go, after two disastrous elections in a row now, but there is nothing NDP voters love more than losing while feeling superior about themselves, so they will of course keep him.

This is right. On CBC the NDP woman they had was talking about how proud everyone was of Jagmeet; it doesn't matter whether they won or not, what was important was that they made such a great stand by making the turban man their leader. It's the attitude that comes from being in permanent opposition. Nobody got into the NDP because they wanted to win, so nobody can even imagine what winning would be like. It's not surprising that Rachel Notley has tended to keep her distance from the federal NDP, because she is a winner and they are losers.

Speaking as the person who first sounded a "could the NDP underperform 2019?" note, let me say this:  "disastrous" is an overstatement.  If you want "disastrous" in the bigger scheme of things, look to Audrey McLaughlin in 1993, or to the Mulcair tailspin over the course of the 2015 campaign.  And yes, this result highlighted a certain all-surface-no-guts element to the Jagmeet campaign--and in a weird way, I think PPC energy-hogging plowed a big mound of dirt on top of Jagmeetian "positivity" over the course of the campaign.  Otherwise, "bittersweet" might be the more fitting term, not too much different from the Douglas/Lewis leadership era--or else you might as well suggest that the federal NDP's very existence has been one continuous disaster (2011 excepted) for six decades running, and more if you include the CCF.

Painting this in blunt-testosterone winners vs losers terms betrays too much conditioning within hyper-binary systems a la the US or Australia.  I prefer my electoral politics gynaecological over phallic, thank you.

Still feeling this way? I’m waking up to the NDP being at 25, which is frankly pitiful given all the potential upside they had this year. I wasn’t thrilled when I was going to bed with them at 29, but now I’m actually upset.

I probably preemptively insulated myself through my prior "could the NDP underperform 2019?" speculation.  And again:  when all is said and done, more bittersweet than "disastrous", much less "two disastrous elections in a row".

Still, I agree that there's a *bit* of delusionality among partisans.  And while I've suggested that Layton was himself prone to novelty gimmicks, at least he set out to build an organizational foundation "where it counts", and a lot of that as a carryover from his latter-day approach to municipal politics, setting up alliances and seeking common ground in unlikely places.  Whereas Jagmeet and his team seem more adept at whipping up millennial-friendly pixie dust than that kind of Laytonesque meat-and-potatoes kitchen-table fare (and millennials and post-millennials are too "lateral" a demo for the "verticality" that a FPTP electoral system demands).  Too much AOC, not enough "2016 Bernie".  The result being that the *actual* unsexy ground-level riding-by-riding party infrastructure winds up being undernourished--and of course, Covid concerns don't presently help; perhaps they were hoping the pixie dust could compensate for necessarily thwarted groundwork.

Let's presume the NDP *does* clue into that deficiency.  And if Jagmeet is *still* not the right vehicle (perhaps because it'd be hard to get him to do meat-and-potatoes without putting a cute "Punjabi" spin on it?), then as future leadership goes...anyone for Avi Lewis?  (Seriously.  He finished an awfully strong 3rd in a universally-agreed-upon hopeless cause, *probably/perhaps* as a preview to a future run in a more viable riding--and on top of that, his family bloodline practically *codified* a certain characteristically "NDP" hyperintensive street-level voter-identification approach to electoral politics.)

I'm not sure Avi Lewis is the Laytonesque alternative to Singh, and especially because this is a minority parliament where the NDP is likely to play a big role, I'm not sure picking an extra-parliamentary leader (again) is a good call.

Charlie Angus is the name everyone's throwing around, he has this "straight-talkin' jack" persona which contrasts well with Trudeau. Or if they really want to call back to Layton and make gains in Quebec, Boulerice seems like the obvious pick. Nathan Cullen could be a good pick, but I don't imagine he wants to throw away his job in BC as a majority government minister in exchange for leading the federal party. Maybe Jenny Kwan, Peter Julian, or Don Davies from the Vancouver area? Maybe Leah Gazan from Winnipeg?

But in all honesty, I don't think Singh goes.
I do think the NDP might beneft from having a leader from a province where they're actually a party of power, rather than what they usually do. Probably a forlorn hope, but maybe a little bit of that mindset could rub off on the federal party.

At this stage, that leaves you with BC, Alberta and Manitoba. Peter Julian seems good, but the fact that he's been sidelined in two leadership elections in a row now does have to give one pause. Is there anything to be said for Blaikie the Younger, or Heather McPherson?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2021, 01:27:32 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2021, 01:52:01 PM by The Woman from Edward Hopper's 'Automat' »

Major issue with the NDP is that, once in power, they do not govern in a way that lives up to their federal promises. It's noticeable that Horgan and Notley have had no coattails here. In this context a personal campaign around a fairly popular leader makes sense, but that didn't work either. I don't think a change of leadership would help here. There needs to be a fundamental change in the federal party's objectives. They need to figure out their base that wins them provinicial seats (working class, indigenous, young folks) and act like the Bloc - if its good we vote yes, if its bad for them we vote no.

Heat has already alluded to this, but since Tommy Douglas the only NDP leader who was even sort of from the west was Audrey McLaughlin, who grew up in Ontario and moved to the Yukon as an adult. With that possible exception, they've all been easterners. The federal NDP should fare much better in the west than it does; it's hard not to imagine that this has something to do with its constant longing for what is not there.
I'd say that, whether we think it's possible to be a national party in a country as large and internally divided as Canada or not, the NDP needs to be seen as credible and comfortable in its own skin to get anywhere. Barring the emergence of another Eastern politico as talented as Jack Layton (who was not really a typical NDP leader in many ways), the best plausible way of instilling this in the federal party would seem to be to look to the places where it already has what it wants i.e. a consistent chance at power. This is something the NDP hasn't done since Douglas, and even his federal career is telling on this front - he failed to win a seat in Saskatchewan and the party instead had to scrounge up a safer seat in BC for him. This is a similar trajectory to Singh's (except Douglas at least tried first), and it seems unhealthy (if in character for a social democratic party, I guess) that BC - one of the stronger pillars of the NDP for its entire existence - is rarely if ever considered as a source of potential leaders, only as a repository of safe(ish) seats.

In general, the seductive logic of 'people vote for people who look like them' has served the NDP poorly for its entire existence - there are all the Ontarian leaders who failed to break through in Ontario, obviously (lest we forget, Andrea Horwath did much better with ethnic minority voters in the 905 in 2018 than Singh has done in either of his outings thus far), and while Layton may have been born in Montréal nobody perceived him as a Quebecker, it wasn't a major part of his political image, he gave Quebeckers other reasons to vote for him - and when the NDP was led by a Quebecker it did much worse there.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2021, 02:49:15 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2021, 02:59:08 PM by The Woman from Edward Hopper's 'Automat' »

Also, as yet more proof that the NDP replicates all the dysfunctions of European/Commonwealth social democratic parties while being much, much worse at winning votes than they are, I'm marvelling at them possibly fumbling Hamilton Mountain, a held seat they really shouldn't be losing in an election where they're increasing their vote share, by trying to stick Malcolm Allen there. "Ah sure, things can't possibly get worse there, we can hand the seat to our unlucky mate... Oh. Oh no." It's somehow even funnier than Howard Hampton being the candidate in Kenora in 2015.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2021, 01:05:35 AM »

Ultimately O'Toole's problem is that, much like Singh in 2019, he only grounds on which he can really credibly stay on for another election is by pointing to the CPC's terrible pre-campaign polling and saying 'look, I dug us out of the hole' - which does raise the question of why the party was in such a hole when he was running it in the first place. And, unlike in the NDP, we can be certain someone will ask that question.

This is regrettable because everyone waiting in the wings to succeed O'Toole appears to be a lunatic of some sort, and because his friend-to-all-humans snake-oil salesman act was hilarious and I'd have liked to see more of it.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2021, 04:09:50 AM »

I also think Edmonton was quite interesting in its results. Both the Liberals and NDP should be quite happy there. The Liberals regained Edmonton Centre and the NDP won a second seat in Alberta for the first time ever (interestingly Edmonton Griesbach is the successor to the old Edmonton East the NDP won in 1988). The NDP also appears to have really locked down Edmonton Strathcona. And, despite getting third place in Edmonton Centre, they were less than 5% behind first, a legit 3-way race. Using the same format as above (although a little trickier as Edmonton is a 3-party city, unlike Calgary):

Edmonton Strathcona NDP+12.7% - NDP+10.2% - NDP+34.0%
Edmonton Griesbach CPC+5.9% - CPC+26.2% - NDP+3.4%
Edmonton Centre LPC+2.2% - CPC+8.4% - LPC+1.2%
Edmonton Mill Woods LPC+0.18% - CPC+16.7% - CPC+3.6%

I really don't think that these Edmonton results are good news for the Liberals at all. Centre and Mill Woods were the two ridings in the city that the Liberals targeted (naturally, since those were the two they won in 2015) and they made a serious effort in both of them. In neither riding did they meaningfully improve their own share of the vote; for all the work that the Liberal campaign put in, both ridings experienced a straight CPC to NDP swing. In Centre the drop in the Conservative vote was enough to deliver the seat to the Liberals, but voters clearly did not believe that the Liberals were the only non-Conservative option, and come next election Randy Boissonnault will have to defend his seat from both ends. In Mill Woods the NDP candidate did not do nearly as well, but as a result the Conservative vote failed to drop far enough for the Liberal candidate to pick up the seat. Again, this is not a result that is suggestive of any real Liberal strength.

The provincial NDP was much more active in this campaign than in past federal election campaigns, and it seems that at least in Edmonton it hurt federal Liberals that the Alberta Liberal Party is now truly dead. Alberta has never really had a New Democratic tradition, but maybe now one is being invented.
And Boissonnault's performance, coupled with the strong NDP third place and their results in the rest of Edmonton, does not really suggest a seat that would have gone Liberal in the absence of a candidate who was already a relatively recognisable face in the area.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2021, 01:28:46 PM »

hurling computer monitors at staff.
Excuse me, what
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2021, 04:48:52 PM »

Everyone says Poilievre but, surely, the CPC brain trust won't let that happen right? He's popular with the base because he's an attack dog, but attack dogs don't make good party leaders.
Yes, because when I think of the CPC circa 2021, I think of a party where a 'brain trust' has tight control over everything that goes on internally.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2021, 04:56:58 PM »

The decline of the NDP in the industrial centers of Ontario is really quite striking.  Charlie Angus down to 35%.  Third place in Nickel Belt for the first time since the 1960s.  Third place in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. The old working class "labor party" constituency has eroded.
I mean, I'm sure all the places you mentioned have changed quite a bit over the decades, but the provincial party, which is famously very competent and not at all a human disaster, still wins them all without too much trouble, so maybe, just maybe this line, which gets wheeled out every time a social democratic party does badly, does not cover all the factors involved.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2021, 05:59:00 PM »


Because when it came to post-Orange Crush dynamics, the Conservatives, and not the Liberals, were already positioned as the default alternative in most of the Capitale-Nationale (w/the exception of Louis-Hebert and Quebec)

I imagine it also has to do with ground game. The Capitale-Nationale/Chaudières-Appalaches/Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean belt is where Tories have a pre-existing base, so it would make sense if they put in a lot more effort there than, say, Greater Montreal where apart from a few Anglo suburbs they're lucky to keep their deposit.
I get that the Quebec City area and Chaudières-Appalaches are pretty well-suited to them, but I'll admit that I'm not really sure what Tory strength around Saguenay specifically is based on.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2021, 09:33:19 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2021, 09:39:42 AM by The Woman from Edward Hopper's 'Automat' »

By contrast in urban Atlantic Canada, its Liberals in first, NDP in second and Tories distant third.  

There actually isn't much of "urban Atlantic Canada" where that's the case--basically, Halifax and St. John's and that's it.  And thank the Alexa and Jack Harris legacies for that.
Parallels with Quebec post-Orange Crush.

Quote
And keep in mind that a generation or so ago, conventional wisdom was that Cape Breton as a "competitive" proposition would have been Lib vs NDP.  No longer.
Why did this happen, btw? The provincial party is still competitive in part of the area, so it's not like it's a complete dead zone for the NDP even now, but it seems like a place where they could be more of a factor than they are.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2021, 06:40:12 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2021, 06:44:01 PM by The Woman from Edward Hopper's 'Automat' »

By contrast in urban Atlantic Canada, its Liberals in first, NDP in second and Tories distant third.  

There actually isn't much of "urban Atlantic Canada" where that's the case--basically, Halifax and St. John's and that's it.  And thank the Alexa and Jack Harris legacies for that.
Parallels with Quebec post-Orange Crush.

Quote
And keep in mind that a generation or so ago, conventional wisdom was that Cape Breton as a "competitive" proposition would have been Lib vs NDP.  No longer.
Why did this happen, btw? The provincial party is still competitive in part of the area, so it's not like it's a complete dead zone for the NDP even now, but it seems like a place where they could be more of a factor than they are.


Well, it's not like the party could *still* be competitive (particularly in Sydney-Victoria).  It's probably more the happenstance of CPC hyperstrategizing w/star candidates in 2019 + the federal NDP entering that election as basically a dead party walking, especially in the Maritimes where they were battling the Greens for 3rd.  And while Team Jagmeet was in better shape going into 2021, it wasn't enough to prevent the Cape Breton '19 result from being a template for '21 as well...
Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2021, 05:23:59 AM »

I'd probably have to look at the poll-by-poll results to confirm or debunk this, but based on the results since 2004, it does feel like Kenora has a not necessarily large but still electorally decisive racist tendency - a few percentage points' worth of people who will vote Tory when the NDP candidate is First Nations but are still open to a white Dipper.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2022, 08:46:24 AM »

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.

I seem to recall seeing a map of that one on twitter - the Tories won the center and inland, the NDP won the north, and Libs won the urban/suburban far south of the seat.
What sorts of people live in each of those parts of the seat?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2022, 05:31:35 AM »

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.

I seem to recall seeing a map of that one on twitter - the Tories won the center and inland, the NDP won the north, and Libs won the urban/suburban far south of the seat.
What sorts of people live in each of those parts of the seat?

Well, that was a pretty aggressively dumbed-down map that anyone could have educated-guessed on.

But blue = W Van = affluent-class suburbia.  Orange = Sunshine Coast = "hippie types" (and Avi himself).  Red = Sea To Sky Country = ski and resort country, Whistler et al (though w/more of a historical blue-collar streak in Squamish that's made for high NDP figures there over time)
Well, that was unnecessary, especially since Oryx hadn't yet edited the map into his post when I asked. But thank you for the breakdown anyway - I was particularly interested in teasing out how much of a blue-collar streak Lewis would have had to work with.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2022, 05:00:47 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2022, 05:04:00 PM by The Thinking Man's Orangewoman »

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...
Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2022, 11:19:12 PM »

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...
Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.
That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...
Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.

Well, you're right re the above reference to "blue-collar Anglos"--but Westmount was a relatively limited part of the riding, and Jack Layton certainly wasn't devoid of champagne-socialist appeal.  Or one would assume that if Westmount were more like Outremont, the NDP would have done better there.  (Likewise re the surprise NDP pickup of NDG-Lachine in '11: it was "Franco" Lachine--usually an island of relative Bloc-friendliness--that tipped the riding; "Anglo" NDG remained Liberal;  However, when it comes to *present-day* federal NDP support in the province, the present NDG-Westmount is one of the stronger spots--though it might take a "Jill Andrew St Paul's" circumstance for it to actually make the jump.)

Yes, I was alluding to places like Sault Ste. Marie, Vancouver Island, Oshawa, the Niagara region, even working-class Winnipeg (tho there were lots of other factors working against the NDP in Manitoba that year) - all places where you might have generically expected the NDP to do very well while surging into second across the country but where their performance proved mediocre in the end.
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