2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

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How is it looking like compared to 2019(with similar amount of votes in these ridings)

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Tory GAIN South Shore-St. Margaret's, in Nova Scotia. First flip of the night. Polls have closed in Quebec.

EDIT: With 70% in, Tory lead is growing in Coast of Bays. Upset?

What source are you using

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The two party system is back in Canada, NDP and Green not project to lead in any seat.

Even in 2011 NDP didnt do great in Atlantic

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Why do all the rural non-college whites in Atlantic Canada vote Liberal ?

Cause regional divides matter more in Canada than the rest of the West

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So is it likely gonna be a repeat of 2019 at this point

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First CBC call outside of the Atlantics is Megantic-L'Erable for the Tories.

So What are the chances of Liberals < 150 at this point

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Will Canada ever have right wing govt again?

This is crazy

Trudeau’s stubborn appeal is frustrating

Opposition parties seem to founder for 9-15 years in Canada

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So this election was basically a giant waste of time

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So did reform cost the Tories or not really given they are at 5%

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If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

I don't think a ton of Canadians and even a bunch of Liberals have hated Chrystia Freeland for more than 20 years.

Still, she oozes "Laurentian Elite", and the Cons would have a field day with that.

Though the *real* 2016 analogy would be if they elected *Maxime Bernier* as leader.

Bernier probably would have been their leader for this election if he didnt idiotically bolt the party in 2019

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Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

Also wonder anybody have turnout numbers by riding.  Just looking at seat difference compared to vote, I cannot help but think turnout was much lower in GTA and urban ridings than rural ones so similar phenomenon to UK 2005 where Labour beat Tories by only 3%, yet got double the seats for this reason.

In Ontario, think of it as ruling-government incumbency, further urban-rural sorting (i.e. "metropolitan" seats in the outer GTA and Greater Ottawa and K-W-type places in SW Ontario being more thoroughly out of reach), the decline of the NDP and so-far lack of CPC seat gains in N Ontario, and the simple fact that there are so many more "Liberal-type" suburban seats now, thanks to population growth and thanks to the Harper-era expansion of Commons, which was supposed to work in *his* favour but didn't.

True but with only a four point spread, only way I could see this happening is if turnout was much higher in rural areas than metro ones and if turnout were equal that would mean Liberals would have bigger popular vote lead.  Its not like rural Ontario Tories are running up the score like they do in Prairies.  They won those ridings but solid margins, but they aren't blowouts like in Prairies.  After all only got over 50% in 6 ridings in the entire province and that is quite a bit less than Liberals.  So that is why curious if turnout higher in rural areas and certainly possible as with pandemic people in cities perhaps more worried thus more reluctant to show up than in rural areas where people seem to be less worried about pandemic.

Again, a big factor might be the most recent redistribution, which not only reflected suburban growth but was meant to give the suburbs more weight--which is how Ontario leapt from 106 to 121 seats, a outsize "redistribution bump" intended to avoid monstrosities like the former Oak Ridges-Markham.  Because when all is said and done, the Cons only had a net drop of 3 seats from '06.

'06 Con seats which are (or their equivalents are) no longer Con:  St. Catharines, Halton, Burlington, Milton, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Whitby-Oshawa, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.  Present Con seats which weren't Con in '06:  Huron-Bruce, Brantford-Brant, Thornhill, Kenora--and I suppose King-Vaughan as the spawn of former Liberal seats.  And added seats in the Barrie and Quinte areas, and I have to figure what else there might be...

Even then still double seats with only 4 point difference points to huge voter efficiency.  My guess is lower turnout in Liberal ridings than Conservative ones as only other way this happens is if votes evenly spread out like PEI or if Tories were running up margins in ridings they won and on balance Tory wins weren't exactly that much larger than Liberal ones were.  Both had strongholds and more mixed.

I am thinking it was more like UK 2005 where Labour only beat Tories by 3 points but got double seats and big reason was turnout was higher in Tory ridings than Labour.  Due to re-alignment that is no longer an issue in UK as Tories now winning many of those former Labour strongholds with low turnouts and Labour doing better in more middle class urban areas.

The Tories still arent anywhere near as efficient as Labour were in the Blair years. Keep in mind Boris won the PV by a larger margin than Blair did in 2001 yet his majority is more similar to Blair 2005 than Blair 2001

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Is there a possible way Tories can make inroads in Quebec to make their path easier . Say they got 30 seats in Quebec and say 16 in Atlantic Canada and held all the Scheer seats , that would take them to 153 seats meaning they only need a little over 50 in Ontario to get a majority