2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[adma]

To add to what Earl said, the Tories did better in rural Newfoundland this election than they did in 1997 with the Atlantic Chretien backlash, or Mulroney's 1988 result. This indicates that rural Newfoundland has had a rightward trend that goes beyond individual candidates doing well.

Though 1997 had an added "anti-Liberal option" factor in the mix: an Atlantic Canadian NDP leader in the form of Alexa McDonough.  (Even though that was only good for mid-teens shares in all but 3 ridings. And in a PPC foreshadowing, there were a few bottom-feeding Reform candidates that year as well.)

And Newfoundland being Newfoundland, it's still unclear how terminally "right" the Conservative vote necessarily is--there's still a lot of potential electoral promiscuity around the edges; we're not exactly talking about rural N&L going Fundy-Royal or New Brunswick Southwest on us...

[mileslunn]

I look at both gap between parties, past results, provincial results (for ideological make up and possibilities even though not always same) and overall trends to.  If a riding used to vote a certain way but you see a steady trend away, its probably not going back.  If a riding has never voted for a certain point, but you see it trending a certain way, good chance it flips at some point.  Best way to judge trends is look at how far off percentage was with national results.  If a riding was L+9 one election, L+6 next, and then L+2, then you can say its trending away from the Liberals for example. 

Quebec is without question the most elastic, but usually its pretty steady, but when they do swing, they tend to swing hard.  Also there is reversion to mean too.  In 2019, swing in Atlantic Canada was much bigger than most provinces as Liberals were at ridiculously high levels and Tories ridiculously low so you were bound to get some reversion to mean thus larger swing.  Other elastic ones I find are Downtown Toronto as they seem to be mostly promiscuous progressives and will never vote Tory, but can swing quite heavily between NDP or Liberals.  Most there unlike 416 suburbs and 905 (where many are Blue Liberals thus would never go NDP, but some might go Tory) lean left here and will swing heavily behind whichever party most likely to stop the Tories. 

Another is just straight up demographics and what parties do well there.  Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, and Northern Ontario saw Tories a lot closer than normal in ridings they normally aren't even competitive in.  But based on demographics in those ridings, this could more a case of starting to align with how other similar ones already vote.  If Calgary one election swung heavily Liberal, you could say same things as based on demographics of Calgary, it should be going Liberal not Tory.  It likely only goes Conservative due to feeling Liberals are hostile towards province so if you had a Liberal leader who was Alberta friendly, you could see a big swing that way. 

In terms of Northern Ontario, to be sure this is based on stereotypes and myths and I don't know how true either are, but...

In the southern rural ridings,  there is supposedly a myth of 'rugged individualism' that tends to have people there voting for right wing political parties, whereas in northern rural ridings there is a myth of 'communitarianism' that has people voting for left wing political parties.  To be sure, that myth doesn't hold in north eastern British Columbia or in Alberta, but it may be a factor elsewhere.

Northeastern BC has lots of agriculture and generally wherever agriculture is widespread, right wing parties tend to do well.  Otherwise if geography of riding is mostly farmland which Peace River part of BC is, then people will lean right.  Northern Alberta mostly due to oil industry so it goes without saying nowadays anyone in energy industry is probably going to favour parties on right.

Generally I find areas where mining and forestry are big tend to lean left due to strong union movement, but even that is somewhat waning.  A bigger reason northern ridings lean left is large Aboriginal population as I suspect if you look at predominately white parts, Tories were pretty competitive.  Aboriginals tend to go NDP or Liberal but rarely Tory.  Northern Ontario has a large Francophone community and as you saw in Francophone parts of New Brunswick and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Liberals tend to dominate Francophones outside Quebec as they are seen as biggest defenders of language rights for linguistic minorities.  Same reason Anglophones in Quebec vote heavily Liberal. 

Another way of looking at it as how accessible region is.  Areas that are part of highway network I find are more competitive while fly in only communities generally lean left as rely heavily on government support so tend to be wary of parties that want less government spending or too much reliance on free market.

[mileslunn]

To add to what Earl said, the Tories did better in rural Newfoundland this election than they did in 1997 with the Atlantic Chretien backlash, or Mulroney's 1988 result. This indicates that rural Newfoundland has had a rightward trend that goes beyond individual candidates doing well.

Though 1997 had an added "anti-Liberal option" factor in the mix: an Atlantic Canadian NDP leader in the form of Alexa McDonough.  (Even though that was only good for mid-teens shares in all but 3 ridings. And in a PPC foreshadowing, there were a few bottom-feeding Reform candidates that year as well.)

And Newfoundland being Newfoundland, it's still unclear how terminally "right" the Conservative vote necessarily is--there's still a lot of potential electoral promiscuity around the edges; we're not exactly talking about rural N&L going Fundy-Royal or New Brunswick Southwest on us...

Agreed but still all relative just as Tories still win in urban Alberta and Saskatchewan, but urban areas in those two are definitely trending away from them.  Actually outside of the three southern rural New Brunswick ridings (New Brunswick Southwest, Tobique-Mactaquac, and Fundy-Royal), Liberals can still under right conditions win in all others (those only went Liberal in 1993 and 2015 so I suspect it will be a long time before they do again) but definitely seeing Tories either winning but not blowouts asides those three, or losing but having strong seconds in most rural Atlantic ridings.  By contrast in urban Atlantic Canada, its Liberals in first, NDP in second and Tories distant third.  St. John's used to be one of their strongest spots, now its their weakest after Halifax and that makes some sense as it is second largest city in this region.  Even Saint John-Rothesay which in past was one of the strongest Tory ridings in region stayed Liberal by double digits despite Tory gains elsewhere.

Likewise in Newfoundland, the only two outside St. John's won by double digits were Avalon (which was most favourable Tory one a decade ago) and Labrador.  Former is close enough to St. John's that probably getting some suburban spillover although provincially St. John's suburbs are most reliably PC although city proper has swung away too provincially.  Labrador probably a combination of local candidate mattering more, but also large Aboriginal population too. 

[adma]

By contrast in urban Atlantic Canada, its Liberals in first, NDP in second and Tories distant third. 

There actually isn't much of "urban Atlantic Canada" where that's the case--basically, Halifax and St. John's and that's it.  And thank the Alexa and Jack Harris legacies for that.

And keep in mind that a generation or so ago, conventional wisdom was that Cape Breton as a "competitive" proposition would have been Lib vs NDP.  No longer.

[DistingFlyer]

Now the Davenport recount is listed as having been stopped as well - no news items yet about why, though.

Looks like the 2021 count is finally over. Will update the Google Drive datafile today.

[DC Al Fine]

By contrast in urban Atlantic Canada, its Liberals in first, NDP in second and Tories distant third. 

There actually isn't much of "urban Atlantic Canada" where that's the case--basically, Halifax and St. John's and that's it.  And thank the Alexa and Jack Harris legacies for that.

And keep in mind that a generation or so ago, conventional wisdom was that Cape Breton as a "competitive" proposition would have been Lib vs NDP.  No longer.

And even in Halifax really only describes the two more urban ridings. The Halifax burbs, are more like Liberal first, with NDP and Tories duking it out for second. It's closer to Hamilton East-Stoney Creek or London North Centre than Davenport.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

By contrast in urban Atlantic Canada, its Liberals in first, NDP in second and Tories distant third.  

There actually isn't much of "urban Atlantic Canada" where that's the case--basically, Halifax and St. John's and that's it.  And thank the Alexa and Jack Harris legacies for that.

Parallels with Quebec post-Orange Crush.

And keep in mind that a generation or so ago, conventional wisdom was that Cape Breton as a "competitive" proposition would have been Lib vs NDP.  No longer.

Why did this happen, btw? The provincial party is still competitive in part of the area, so it's not like it's a complete dead zone for the NDP even now, but it seems like a place where they could be more of a factor than they are.

[DistingFlyer]

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR?usp=sharing

Have updated the pdf file as well as the xls (which includes turnout figures).


Have also updated the margin/vote share/swing maps to reflect the recounts:

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a graph illustrating turnouts from 1935 to the present; as with other ones like this I've made, the top line is the highest-turnout riding, the bottom line the lowest-turnout riding and the middle line the national turnout. The numbers are colored according to the winning party.




The constituency with the highest turnout this time was Ottawa Centre, just barely edging out Souris - Moose Mountain (which topped the list last time). The riding with the lowest participation was Nunavut, which beat out Fort McMurray - Athabasca in 2008 for the all-time lowest turnout.

[Njall]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12iGwDt_pMK_Zx_bB0Pp6RNyMhsr_kpvV/view?usp=sharing

Have updated the pdf file as well as the xls (which includes turnout figures).

Apologies if I missed it elsewhere, but is the xls file available somewhere. I'd be interested in playing around with some stats. If not, no worries!

[DistingFlyer]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12iGwDt_pMK_Zx_bB0Pp6RNyMhsr_kpvV/view?usp=sharing

Have updated the pdf file as well as the xls (which includes turnout figures).

Apologies if I missed it elsewhere, but is the xls file available somewhere. I'd be interested in playing around with some stats. If not, no worries!

Whoops - I see that the link was only for the pdf. Have corrected that to link to the whole folder, which has pdfs for all the provinces as well as a federal xls file (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR?usp=sharing)

[adma]

By contrast in urban Atlantic Canada, its Liberals in first, NDP in second and Tories distant third.  

There actually isn't much of "urban Atlantic Canada" where that's the case--basically, Halifax and St. John's and that's it.  And thank the Alexa and Jack Harris legacies for that.

Parallels with Quebec post-Orange Crush.

And keep in mind that a generation or so ago, conventional wisdom was that Cape Breton as a "competitive" proposition would have been Lib vs NDP.  No longer.

Why did this happen, btw? The provincial party is still competitive in part of the area, so it's not like it's a complete dead zone for the NDP even now, but it seems like a place where they could be more of a factor than they are.

Well, it's not like the party couldn't *still* be competitive (particularly in Sydney-Victoria).  It's probably more the happenstance of CPC hyperstrategizing w/star candidates in 2019 + the federal NDP entering that election as basically a dead party walking, especially in the Maritimes where they were battling the Greens for 3rd.  And while Team Jagmeet was in better shape going into 2021, it wasn't enough to prevent the Cape Breton '19 result from being a template for '21 as well...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

By contrast in urban Atlantic Canada, its Liberals in first, NDP in second and Tories distant third.  

There actually isn't much of "urban Atlantic Canada" where that's the case--basically, Halifax and St. John's and that's it.  And thank the Alexa and Jack Harris legacies for that.

Parallels with Quebec post-Orange Crush.

And keep in mind that a generation or so ago, conventional wisdom was that Cape Breton as a "competitive" proposition would have been Lib vs NDP.  No longer.

Why did this happen, btw? The provincial party is still competitive in part of the area, so it's not like it's a complete dead zone for the NDP even now, but it seems like a place where they could be more of a factor than they are.

Well, it's not like the party could *still* be competitive (particularly in Sydney-Victoria).  It's probably more the happenstance of CPC hyperstrategizing w/star candidates in 2019 + the federal NDP entering that election as basically a dead party walking, especially in the Maritimes where they were battling the Greens for 3rd.  And while Team Jagmeet was in better shape going into 2021, it wasn't enough to prevent the Cape Breton '19 result from being a template for '21 as well...

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

[adma]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a curiosity as they've maintained a strong vote there even without much recent attention and even with quite frequent strongly contested Lib/Con contests. Which is more than can be said for some other places. It does seem like somewhere where it would make sense to find someone to nurse the seat on a long-term basis.

[Benjamin Frank]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

[DC Al Fine]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

[Benjamin Frank]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

Peter Fenwick in Newfoundland and Labrador also went from being the NDP provincial leader and hardline union activist to running for the Canadian Alliance in 2000.

[beesley]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

Peter Fenwick in Newfoundland and Labrador also went from being the NDP provincial leader and hardline union activist to running for the Canadian Alliance in 2000.

Slightly less of a shift perhaps as it's Newfoundland, but Ryan Cleary, having lost for the federal NDP in St. John's South subsequently ran for the PCs in Windsor Lake in the almost immediate provincial election afterwards. This was not well-received by anyone.

[Benjamin Frank]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

Peter Fenwick in Newfoundland and Labrador also went from being the NDP provincial leader and hardline union activist to running for the Canadian Alliance in 2000.

Slightly less of a shift perhaps as it's Newfoundland, but Ryan Cleary, having lost for the federal NDP in St. John's South subsequently ran for the PCs in Windsor Lake in the almost immediate provincial election afterwards. This was not well-received by anyone.

Yes, that's well known. He was always something of a flake.

[Hatman 🍁]

And then of course there's Dominic Cardy. You could argue he didn't change his beliefs all that much though.

In Saskatchewan, there's Ross Thatcher. Elected in the 1944 CCF landslide wanting to do something about the depression, his small business sensibilities made him an awkward fit with a socialist party, so he became a leading champion of free enterprise, and an opponent of Tommy Douglas, later becoming Premier of the province.

[mileslunn]

And then of course there's Dominic Cardy. You could argue he didn't change his beliefs all that much though.

In Saskatchewan, there's Ross Thatcher. Elected in the 1944 CCF landslide wanting to do something about the depression, his small business sensibilities made him an awkward fit with a socialist party, so he became a leading champion of free enterprise, and an opponent of Tommy Douglas, later becoming Premier of the province.

Dominic Cardy also endorsed Maxime Bernier for CPC leader in 2017.  Indeed his platform in New Brunswick election was surprisingly conservative for an NDPer.  In fact it was Brian Gallant who ran on the more left wing platform.

[mileslunn]

Also be interesting how many former NDP voters over 50 now voting Conservative.  In particular BC Interior, Saskatchewan, a few pockets in Ontario like Oshawa or Essex are all examples of this.  In case of Quebec, not so many although a lot who voted for Layton in 2011 supported Legault in 2018 but the Orange wave in Quebec was a one off and more over Quebec loved Layton and less over policy.  After all a lot of Layton 2011 voters voted for Mulroney in the 80s. 

In case of BC Interior, I would imagine many over 50 who voted for BC NDP in 90s are now going BC Liberal and Conservative federally.  Saskatchewan too although it seems in Saskatchewan some of the shift is demographic churn.  I believe at least in rural Saskatchewan, most NDP supporters were people around when Tommy Douglas was and a lot voted NDP until they died, but most dead today.  Whereas unlike in much of country, I think those who came of age since 90s have tended to be quite Conservative in Saskatchewan which has pulled province rightward.  Out migration primarily to Alberta I think played a big role and many thought if only Saskatchewan would behave more like Alberta they could end the out migration.  Sort of did but not fully as I think harsh climate and small population lead to many leaving even if economy strong. 

Still it does seem in Canada much like US and UK, you are seeing some former blue collar union types moving right (not union leaders, but workers) while that is being offset by gains amongst your urban progressives and good thing for NDP is latter is growing and much larger while former is declining.  I mean if you look at age breakdown, most who voted NDP came of age this century so its probably fair to say the record low votes they were getting in 90s federally has continued amongst people old enough to vote then and just those who have come of age since have helped avoid party from similar disaster.

In case of Atlantic Canada though, I suspect almost all lost NDP votes have been to Liberals from McDonough era.  In case of Toronto from 2011, I think most of those were promiscuous progressives not NDP supporters and they will just swing en masse behind whichever party most likely to stop Tories.  Thus why in 2018 provincially, old city of Toronto pre-amalgamation went massively NDP, but federally Liberal.  In fact 2011 federal and 2018 provincial suggest liberal dominance of GTA is a large coalition with the suburban ones being more on right of party and urban core more on left of party so absence of Liberals means Tories dominate suburbs and NDP urban core, but Liberals falling in between two parties on spectrum are able to unite both when they are viable. 

[DistingFlyer]

And then of course there's Dominic Cardy. You could argue he didn't change his beliefs all that much though.

In Saskatchewan, there's Ross Thatcher. Elected in the 1944 CCF landslide wanting to do something about the depression, his small business sensibilities made him an awkward fit with a socialist party, so he became a leading champion of free enterprise, and an opponent of Tommy Douglas, later becoming Premier of the province.

There's also Dennis Fentie in the Yukon, who was an NDP MLA for six years before he switched to the Yukon Party; a month after doing so he became the party's leader, and five months after that he led them to victory in the snap general election.

[adma]

And then of course there's Dominic Cardy. You could argue he didn't change his beliefs all that much though.

In Saskatchewan, there's Ross Thatcher. Elected in the 1944 CCF landslide wanting to do something about the depression, his small business sensibilities made him an awkward fit with a socialist party, so he became a leading champion of free enterprise, and an opponent of Tommy Douglas, later becoming Premier of the province.

There's also Dennis Fentie in the Yukon, who was an NDP MLA for six years before he switched to the Yukon Party; a month after doing so he became the party's leader, and five months after that he led them to victory in the snap general election.

And of course, Bob Rae in Ontario.

And there were not a few of Rae's MPP's who drifted to the Libs or beyond--an extreme case of "beyond" being Giorgio Mammoliti in Toronto...