2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!

[adma]

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!

No argument there ;-)

[mileslunn]

A lot of talk of where former NDP voters went, but how about former Liberals and former Tories?  First for Liberals, most they've lost since 2015 were probably people who voted NDP or Conservative in 2011 so was a one time thing and simply returned to how they voted before.

I would say area with biggest swing against Liberals is Southwestern Ontario.  Yes in 90s, was partly due to split on right, but even in 2004, Liberals won ridings like Huron-Bruce, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, and Sarnia-Lambton.  Likewise provincially those went Liberal as recently as 2007 and even ridings like Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry and Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke were once Liberal strongholds, but now some of the safest Tory seats in Ontario.  Brantford-Brant and Essex used to be NDP/Liberal battlegrounds with Tories never winning them, but now Tories are favourites although don't always win.  My thinking is change here was less ideology and more parties.  Most Liberal MPs and MPPs you had from this area tended to come from the right of the party and likely wouldn't fit in modern Liberal party.  They were often quite socially conservative.  After all they elected people like Roger Gallaway, Paul Steckle, and Rose Marie-Ur and I suspect those types would be a better fit in the Tories today than Liberals.  They may still vote Liberal out of habit, but I bet a lot of the supporters have gone elsewhere.

For Tories, biggest swing is Lower Mainland which up until 2015, right whether it be Reform, Canadian Alliance, or Conservatives dominated suburbs yet since then mostly Liberal.  Also same thing has happened provincially as mostly BC Liberal until recently now mostly NDP.  Here I believe its a mix of some switching, but also changing demographics and Tories and BC Liberals unable to appeal to new voters moving to those areas.  905 belt is always swingy and I also think you have a fair number of Liberals in 905 belt who will always vote Liberal in a Liberal/Tory race but go Conservative in a Tory/NDP one.  So yes some shifting, but not as dramatic as some say.  In 1999, 905 belt went massively for Harris yet in 2000 federal and 2004 federal went massively Liberal and even if you combined PC + CA votes, Liberals still would have swept it.  In 2011 federally went massively Tory, yet strongly Liberal in 2011 and 2014 provincial.  Massively PC in 2018 provincial but solidly Liberal in federal 2015, 2019, and 2021 so that suggests just lots of swing voters vs. real shifting.

I think the biggest shift in Ontario away from Tories to Liberals has been Ottawa.  Places like Kanata and Nepean were solid Tory a decade ago but now lean Liberal.  Ottawa West-Nepean and Orleans used to be swing ridings but now solid Liberal.  I think probably education as many university educated turned off by right wing populism who may lean right fiscally have moved away.  Atlantic Canada has seen some shift, but most were your Joe Clark or Robert Stanfield type Red Tories who never left party, party left them.  St. John's really only example of big swing away as discussed earlier.  If you go really far back, Tories used to win St. Paul's, Toronto Centre, and Vancouver Centre in 80s but so much has changed since then so not sure if its voters shifting more many who voted Tory then are now dead and those still around are too small to win on their own.  On other hand those who moved there since or became of age since have mostly gone for progressive parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!

Crossed my mind as well, but there are lots of examples of New Democrats switching to the Liberals. More interesting to track the more right wing drifters/

Another NDP to Tory switcher is Angela Vautour who was elected in the 1997 Alexa wave, but defected. Kind of amazing to think that the NDP ever won Beausejour of all places.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kind of amazing to think that the NDP ever won Beausejour of all places.

Very much a confirmation that in Canada any party really can win anywhere under the right circumstances.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

How does that happen ?

[DC Al Fine]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

How does that happen ?

I don''t know the exact details, but he got his start trying to unionize deckhands on the lobster boats before going into politics. There was a very public split between the Cape Breton NDP (led by him), and the Halifax NDP (led by Alexa McDonough) during the 80's, in which he accused the NDP of "selling out the working man to appease a bunch of hippie kids from Dalhousie". That's basically his critique of the left today.


He definitely fits the stereotype of the sort of person the NDP used to appeal to but increasingly struggles with today.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that he was born in Worcestershire and grew up in Newport. Heh.

[mileslunn]

I was doing some calculations on swings and got some interesting ones.  Haven't yet done BQ or NDP but got this.

If Tories won every riding they came within 5 points of, seat count would be 144-139 and enough close ones that with recounts probably would have taken a few weeks before certain.

If Tories won everything they got within 10% of, would win 168 seats so two shy of a majority and with 3 new seats in Alberta and one less in Quebec 2024 boundaries might put them on line.  Interestingly enough only would have won 13 seats in Quebec while in 905 belt it would be more like 2008 being a mix not a sweep.  Instead would have won vast majority of ridings in rest of province so 64 seats to Liberals 52.  Would have only won one seat in 416 which would be York Centre.  Would have gained 10 seats in BC however and won 33 of 34 in Alberta.

If Liberals won everything they came within 5% of, only 172 seats so barely a majority.  If every within 10%, only 180 seats.

By contrast on loss side, if Liberals lost everything they won by under 5%, down to 133 seats while if by 10%, then down to 103 seats so lots of close seats they could lose with just a small drop.

For Tories, they only drop to 109 seats at 5 points and 104 seats at 10% so they seem to have more safe seats than Liberals meaning vote less efficient thus why can win popular vote but lose election.  But at same time also means even in a bad election they can form a decent size opposition for this reason.

[adma]

I think the biggest shift in Ontario away from Tories to Liberals has been Ottawa.  Places like Kanata and Nepean were solid Tory a decade ago but now lean Liberal.  Ottawa West-Nepean and Orleans used to be swing ridings but now solid Liberal.  I think probably education as many university educated turned off by right wing populism who may lean right fiscally have moved away.  Atlantic Canada has seen some shift, but most were your Joe Clark or Robert Stanfield type Red Tories who never left party, party left them.  St. John's really only example of big swing away as discussed earlier.  If you go really far back, Tories used to win St. Paul's, Toronto Centre, and Vancouver Centre in 80s but so much has changed since then so not sure if its voters shifting more many who voted Tory then are now dead and those still around are too small to win on their own.  On other hand those who moved there since or became of age since have mostly gone for progressive parties.

Re Toronto Centre:  remember that unlike past incarnations, today's riding doesn't have Rosedale--in its present form (and I'm not talking about simple poll transposition), it might have had a hard time going federally Tory in '84, or indeed at any time post-Diefenbaker.  (OTOH there's a good chance that present-day University-Rosedale *would* have gone Tory, and as the place where David Crombie would likely have run had it existed in '84.)

Ottawa's actually an interesting case in that it's often been electorally ahead of the game--first, the Liberals managed a near-sweep in '88 one election ahead of the Chretien landslide; then, the Alliance + Tories seemed to ominously "overperform" in 2000 in a way that anticipated the more think-tanky side of Harper's "reach"; then, the Libs didn't lose as much ground as they could have, and in some cases even gained ground, under Dion and Ignatieff.  And *perhaps* signs of rekindled Lib weakness in places like Kanata-Carleton over the last couple of elections--or maybe, in the aftermath of '18 provincially, NDP "potential"?

[mileslunn]

I think the biggest shift in Ontario away from Tories to Liberals has been Ottawa.  Places like Kanata and Nepean were solid Tory a decade ago but now lean Liberal.  Ottawa West-Nepean and Orleans used to be swing ridings but now solid Liberal.  I think probably education as many university educated turned off by right wing populism who may lean right fiscally have moved away.  Atlantic Canada has seen some shift, but most were your Joe Clark or Robert Stanfield type Red Tories who never left party, party left them.  St. John's really only example of big swing away as discussed earlier.  If you go really far back, Tories used to win St. Paul's, Toronto Centre, and Vancouver Centre in 80s but so much has changed since then so not sure if its voters shifting more many who voted Tory then are now dead and those still around are too small to win on their own.  On other hand those who moved there since or became of age since have mostly gone for progressive parties.

Re Toronto Centre:  remember that unlike past incarnations, today's riding doesn't have Rosedale--in its present form (and I'm not talking about simple poll transposition), it might have had a hard time going federally Tory in '84, or indeed at any time post-Diefenbaker.  (OTOH there's a good chance that present-day University-Rosedale *would* have gone Tory, and as the place where David Crombie would likely have run had it existed in '84.)

Ottawa's actually an interesting case in that it's often been electorally ahead of the game--first, the Liberals managed a near-sweep in '88 one election ahead of the Chretien landslide; then, the Alliance + Tories seemed to ominously "overperform" in 2000 in a way that anticipated the more think-tanky side of Harper's "reach"; then, the Libs didn't lose as much ground as they could have, and in some cases even gained ground, under Dion and Ignatieff.  And *perhaps* signs of rekindled Lib weakness in places like Kanata-Carleton over the last couple of elections--or maybe, in the aftermath of '18 provincially, NDP "potential"?

True Ottawa being a government town may mean they are ahead of the curve as you are right in 2000, 2004, and 2006, right outperformed there while in 2008 stalled and in 2011 they underperformed.  In fact I believe Tories got same percentage in 2006 in Ottawa as 2011 despite a 9 point increase in Ontario overall.  Provincially have seen same as Ford saw much weaker swing to PCs there than in most parts of the province although in 90s was opposite as in 1995, swing to Harris was weaker than province, but in 1999 then more in line with province while swing away in 2003 was in line with province (Eves in 2003 much like Harper in 2015 got over 40% in a lot of 905 belt ridings despite losing most, it was mostly collapse of NDP that cost Tories there.  It was in 2007 provincially and 2019 federally Tories saw biggest fall in 905 belt and provincially weren't able to recover until 2018 and haven't federally).

Yes Toronto Centre then included Rosedale but even Rosedale in recent elections is a toss-up not solid Tory like it was then and in other parts of riding, I don't think PCs were getting in teens or single digits in 1988 like they do today.  In 1988 generally rural/urban gap was largely non-existent.  PCs did much better in GTA than they do nowadays while Liberals were competitive and even won many rural Ontario ridings.  Haldimand-Norfolk and Leeds-Grenville for example went Liberal in 1988 but now are very safe Tory ridings.  In 80s, I believe income rather than population density was main driver of left vs. right.  BC continued that way provincially even under Gordon Campbell, but then under Christy Clark started to shift away from that.  Australia is perhaps one country I can think of where you still see voting along those lines.

[adma]

(Eves in 2003 much like Harper in 2015 got over 40% in a lot of 905 belt ridings despite losing most, it was mostly collapse of NDP that cost Tories there.  It was in 2007 provincially and 2019 federally Tories saw biggest fall in 905 belt and provincially weren't able to recover until 2018 and haven't federally).

There wasn't a collapse of the ONDP specific to 2003--if anything, they *gained* ground that year  (though their 1999 collapse helped strategically position a lot of 416/905 Libs for future victory in the form of 40% 2nd places and the like).

And '07 and '19 were a matter of them losing whatever incumbent advantage they previously had.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa was also one of the few places in the province that saw a large (comparatively) swing away from Doug Ford's Tories in 2018.  I've also noticed the NDP has been doing much better in Ottawa, than ever, really (except in Ottawa Centre ) For example, the NDP had its best result ever in my riding of Ottawa South this year.

[adma]

Ottawa was also one of the few places in the province that saw a large (comparatively) swing away from Doug Ford's Tories in 2018.  I've also noticed the NDP has been doing much better in Ottawa, than ever, really (except in Ottawa Centre ) For example, the NDP had its best result ever in my riding of Ottawa South this year.

The 1970s provincially could stand as an exception, i.e. when they held both Ottawa Centre and Carleton East, and performed respectably elsewhere (in '75, a 32.4% 2nd place in Ottawa South as it then existed, i.e. N into the Glebe, and no further S than Walkley Rd)

[mileslunn]

Ottawa was also one of the few places in the province that saw a large (comparatively) swing away from Doug Ford's Tories in 2018.  I've also noticed the NDP has been doing much better in Ottawa, than ever, really (except in Ottawa Centre ) For example, the NDP had its best result ever in my riding of Ottawa South this year.

Also wonder if Ford was a bad fit.  It seems in your white upper middle class areas, O'Toole generally saw favourable swings whereas those were areas where Ford most underperformed.  He did better in the more diverse working class ridings which O'Toole did horrible in.  I believe Ford was a tough sell for college educated types as even though some are fiscal conservatives, they tend to eschew right wing populism.  Sort of like in US, Romney had a decent showing in upper middle class suburbs whereas Trump did horrible in those but made that up being running up margins in rural areas and doing better in smaller industrial centres than Romney did. 

Not sure on stats, but I believe average incomes in Ottawa are on high side and unlike Toronto cost of living still somewhat affordable but also those with post secondary education in Ottawa is quite high and as education rather than income is a bigger driver in voting intention, it makes some sense in that way.

[beesley]

Ottawa was also one of the few places in the province that saw a large (comparatively) swing away from Doug Ford's Tories in 2018.  I've also noticed the NDP has been doing much better in Ottawa, than ever, really (except in Ottawa Centre ) For example, the NDP had its best result ever in my riding of Ottawa South this year.

Also wonder if Ford was a bad fit.  It seems in your white upper middle class areas, O'Toole generally saw favourable swings whereas those were areas where Ford most underperformed. 

Yeah, it would seem as if in Ottawa the Liberals did well without the NDP doing badly - has to come from somewhere. Ottawa W-Nepean seems fairly illustrative.

[mileslunn]

Ottawa was also one of the few places in the province that saw a large (comparatively) swing away from Doug Ford's Tories in 2018.  I've also noticed the NDP has been doing much better in Ottawa, than ever, really (except in Ottawa Centre ) For example, the NDP had its best result ever in my riding of Ottawa South this year.

Kanata-Carleton and Nepean were solid Tory ridings a decade ago while now bellwether.  Ottawa West-Nepean and Orleans were winnable a decade ago while now they are solid Liberal and lost causes for Tories.  PCs only won Ottawa-West-Nepean on perfect vote split, but doubt they hold it in next election. 

Ottawa South while a Liberal stronghold, I remember when Tories used to put up a strong second and this was a riding they actually targeted. 

Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa Centre have always been bad for Tories and former is solid Liberal while latter Liberal/NDP.

Carleton still seems fairly strong Tory however, but its more exurban than suburban and it appears suburbs went mostly Liberal, but exurbs went largely Tory in Ontario.  In Quebec, BQ won big in exurbs of Montreal and solidly CAQ provincially while suburbs much tighter but were split.  Likewise in Edmonton and Calgary, exurbs vote Tory by pretty big margins so I think if a riding is mostly made up of subdivisions of homes, then votes like suburbs.  If within commuting distance but mostly countryside and small villages dotting landscape, tends to vote more in line with rural areas.  Even in US you saw this as suburbs clearly backed Biden, but Trump largely held onto the Exurbs. 

Also wonder if Ford was a bad fit.  It seems in your white upper middle class areas, O'Toole generally saw favourable swings whereas those were areas where Ford most underperformed. 

Yeah, it would seem as if in Ottawa the Liberals did well without the NDP doing badly - has to come from somewhere. Ottawa W-Nepean seems fairly illustrative.

[adma]

Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

This the wrong thread to ask this.

To go way back to this post, I was just reminded of a quip I made in 2015:  Stephen Harper earned Wayne Gretzky's support that year, and came out of the election with 99 seats ;-)

[Benjamin Frank]

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!

Crossed my mind as well, but there are lots of examples of New Democrats switching to the Liberals. More interesting to track the more right wing drifters/

Another NDP to Tory switcher is Angela Vautour who was elected in the 1997 Alexa wave, but defected. Kind of amazing to think that the NDP ever won Beausejour of all places.

Not sure how much of this you're already familiar with.

In British Columbia, Barrett era cabinet minister Graham Lea, who ran for the NDP leadership in 1984, shortly after expressed disappointment with Bob Skelly's leadership and first formed his own party, The United Party, before that party merged with the provincial Progressive Conservatives. In the end, Lea did not run in the 1986 election.

In a similar vein but not an elected politician, John Twigg, who was Premier Barrett's press secretary is now a provincial Conservative.

I'm not sure if I can find it, but there was a clever column in either the Vancouver Sun or Province printed on April Fool's day before the 1996 provincial election with fake quotes of Dave Barrett explaining why he was quitting the New Democrats and joining, I think, the provincial Reform Party. It was the familiar thing about 'I was also for the little guy in economics.  This left wing party is now elitists only concerned with social issues and the environment, so I'm joining the populist party.'  It apparently fooled a considerable number of people.  I believe that article was written by a guy whose first name is Shane.  I should see if I can find it sometime.

In Saskatchewan, the provincial health minister appointed after the 1960 election, crossed the floor to the Saskatchewan Liberals explaining that he felt pressured to get Medicare running in time to make Tommy Douglas look good as the first leader of the federal N.D.P and that he was unhappy in the government's treatment of the doctors who he felt were being forced to strike. I can't remember his name.  

In Manitoba, a number of historians have argued that the MLAs of the provincial NDP that won in 1969 were a collection of people with very differing political opinions whose biggest connection was a grievance with the WASP dominated provincial Liberal and Progressive Conservative parties.  One historian said that he could just imagine what caucus discussions between the hardline socialist Cy Gonick and the ardent social conservative Joe Borowski must have been like.

A number of New Democrats who were elected in 1969 (or earlier) later left the party (as, of course, did Borowski.)  

Sidney Green, who was a senior cabinet minister in the Schreyer government, was a combination of a socialist on economic issues and a conservative on social issues who also generally opposed welfare spending and was also somewhat anti union.  He ended up quitting the NDP caucus in 1979 and formed his own party called the Progressive Party.  

Russell Doern was also first elected in 1966.  He became increasingly social conservative and quit the NDP in 1984 over the issue of French Language rights in the province, which was a major issue at the time.  He ran for mayor of Winnipeg in 1986 finishing second and was apparently so despondent as an independent who either rejected all the parties or was rejected by all the parties that he sadly committed suicide in 1987.

As far as I know finally there was James Walding who was first elected in a byelection in 1971.  He was also somewhat socially conservative and was also unhappy that Premier Pawley did not appoint him to the cabinet in 1981.  Pawley appointed him Speaker to try to placate him. After siding with Progressive Conservative obstruction tactics as Speaker, the NDP tried to defeat him for re-nomination in 1986 and he was not reappointed as Speaker after the election.  In 1988, while the reelected NDP government was very unpopular, he  voted for a de-facto non-confidence motion put forward by the Progressive Conservatives that brought down the NDP.

I'm not sure where he went politically, if anywhere, after that.

Edit to add: nope there were others. Two other New Democratic MLAs joined Sidney Green in leaving the NDP for their Progressive Party.  Bud Boyce who was first elected in 1969. He joined the cabinet in 1974. He died in 1984.  And Ben Hanuschak, who was also first elected in 1966 and was appointed to the cabinet in 1970 after being the Speaker for the first year or so of the Schreyer government.

Sid Green, Bud Boyce and Ben Hanuschak were all urban New Democrats representing Winnipeg ridings, then there was also Sam Uskiw who represented the rural riding of Lac du Bonnet. He was an NDP MLA from 1966-1986. He was a minister under both the Schreyer and Pawley governments, but expressed dissatisfaction with the closeness between the NDP and the labour movement and considered joining the Progressive Party in 1981.

In 1986 he retired and endorsed the Progressive Conservative candidate in his riding in that election. He then joined the provincial Progressive Conservatives and became a fundraiser for them, and according to Wiki: There was a period when he may have been the party's largest personal donor.

So, at least 7 of the 28 New Democrats who were elected in the 1969 election or a subsequent byelection before the 1973 general election left the NDP, with most (or all) joining a more right wing party.

On the flip side, you might note that as the Manitoba Legislature has had 57 seats for a long time, the NDP was elected to a minority government in 1969 with 28 ridings. They secured a majority when the Liberal MLA for St Boniface, Laurent Desjardins, crossed the floor to first sit as an independent within the NDP caucus and then as a New Democrat in 1971.  Interestingly, he is one of the few New Democrats who was a member of the party at one level but not at all levels as the NDP allowed him to become a provincial New Democrat while remaining a federal Liberal.

Desjardins was a funeral director (or undertaker) who later became the Health Minister. Some might think that is a conflict of interest.   For Hatman, he also played football with the Montreal Alouettes in the 1940s.

Back to British Columbia, but later than this time period, Jim Doyle the former Mayor of Golden in the Kootenays was elected as a New Democrat in 1991 in the riding of Columbia River-Revelstoke and reelected in 1996 but was defeated in the wave election in 2001, came back into politics as the President of the provincial Liberal Columbia River-Revelstoke riding association.  Not really sure what happened with him, he was actually apparently well liked by most everybody.

On the other side though is the rather interesting situation with the NDP further up north in the Cariboo.  All three New Democrats who have represented this area were originally with other parties. Dave Zirnhelt, who was elected in a byelection in 1989, one of four New Democrats who won previously Social Credit seats during the VanderZalm years (along with Elizabeth Cull, Tom Perry and Bill Barlee) had at one time been a federal Liberal.

Bob Simpson who was elected in 2005 for the NDP in Cariboo North ran for the Provincial Liberal nomination in that riding in 1996.  He was removed from the NDP caucus in 2010. He is, generally regarded as highly intelligent, but not exactly a team player.  He's been the mayor of Quesnel since 2014.

Finally, Charlie Wyse who was elected in 2005 for the NDP in Cariboo South had been a longtime Williams Lake city councilor (23 years) and for much of that time was identified as a supporter of the Federal Progressive Conservatives.

[Benjamin Frank]

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!

Hazen Argue.  Did he really quit the NDP?  I think he's more like the Progressive Conservatives in the early 2000s who joined the Liberals arguing that after their party merged with the Canadian Alliance they didn't have a party any longer.  To be sure, he did run against Tommy Douglas for the leadership of the new NDP, though the result was never in doubt.

This is the Wiki source on Hazen Argue winning the CCF leadership.  The Windsor Star, August 13 1960.

"The C.C.F has picked a new leader after much internal dissension at the Regina convention. He is Hazen Argue M.P for Assiniboia since 1945 who has been the party leader in the Commons.

The masterminds of the C.C.F Council tried to head off his accession to the leadership. The C.C.F is to merge with the new party now in formation. The thought was that choice of a permanent C.C.F leader would give him an inside track for the leadership of the new party.

That may be the effect. It will be difficult for the new party to reject Mr Argue without great offence to his supporters in the present C.C.F.  It would mean that a farmer, as Mr Argue is when not busy with politics would be the new party's leader, rather than a Labor man or someone more closely associated with Labour.

This really is the clue to this dissension at the convention. That was only patched up when when it became evident the majority of delegates wanted a leader picked and to have Mr Argue elected to the post.

Premier T.C Douglas was a key man in this decision. If the new party should be dominated by Labor this would react against Mr Douglas in agrarian Saskatchewan. It is quite proper he should have had this influence.  After all, he is the only one with anything to offer the new party in the way of present power through office. Majority of the C.C.F M.P's also looking to their own future, supported Mr. Argue.

Mr. Argue is a young man who has quickly gained political stature.  Only 24 when first elected, he then possessed a good speaking voice though a bit awkward in his eloquence. He has done his political homework, has become a first-rate debater and parliamentarian. He is both intelligent and tough in debate.

He is following two eminent predecessors, the late J.S Woodsworth and Mr M J Caldwell. Mr Woodsworth, the C.C.F's first leader, was a man of unexcelled character, absolute sincerity and unusual unselifshness.

Mr. Coldwell, of course, was one of Canada's finest Parliamentarians, a man of broad humane views, with an exceptional ability to express them. One could, and frequently did, reject the ideas offered by Mr. Woodsworth and Mr Caldwell but only an inveterate partisan questioned their motives.

Mr. Argue, if he measures up to them, can make a real contribution to public life. That will be so even if he never achieves power through victory at the polls."

Interestingly, this was in the news section and not in the editorial section, for people who falsely believe that newspapers had never combined news with editorials until recently.

[Benjamin Frank]

As I posted earlier, the Liberals won 160 ridings and lost another 20 ridings by less than 10%.  That combined is less than the 184 ridings they won in 2015.  So, what are the ridings that the Liberals won in 2015 but lost by more than 10% in 2021?  I don't know all of them, but I believe these are all of them outside of Ontario and Quebec.

1.Kelowna-Lake Country
2Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon
3.Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
4.Calgary Centre
5.Regina-Wascana
6.Kildonen-St Paul
7.Winnipeg Centre
8.Fundy Royal
9.New Brunswick Southwest
10.Tobique-Mactaquac
11.Cumberland-Colchester
12.West Nova
13.Nunavut

I imagine there would be a fair number in Quebec, as the Liberal's main opponent in Quebec in 2015 was the NDP, while in 2021 (and 2019) it was the Bloc. 

[Estrella]

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!

Argue is the only former leader of the CCF or NDP whose portrait is not on the walls of NDP headquarters. [citation needed]

[adma]

As I posted earlier, the Liberals won 160 ridings and lost another 20 ridings by less than 10%.  That combined is less than the 184 ridings they won in 2015.  So, what are the ridings that the Liberals won in 2015 but lost by more than 10% in 2021?  I don't know all of them, but I believe these are all of them outside of Ontario and Quebec.

1.Kelowna-Lake Country
2Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon
3.Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
4.Calgary Centre
5.Regina-Wascana
6.Kildonen-St Paul
7.Winnipeg Centre
8.Fundy Royal
9.New Brunswick Southwest
10.Tobique-Mactaquac
11.Cumberland-Colchester
12.West Nova
13.Nunavut

I imagine there would be a fair number in Quebec, as the Liberal's main opponent in Quebec in 2015 was the NDP, while in 2021 (and 2019) it was the Bloc.  

To that, I'd add Kenora, Hastings-L&A, Northumberland-PS, Laurentides-Labelle, Saint-Jean, Montarville, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Avignon et al.

Kenora's a case of throwaway candidate in 3rd and CPC/NDP filling the void.  Hastings/Northumberland were supermarginal/unexpecteds in '15, and were still not *that* much over 10% in '21.  Chicoutimi was a case of a byelected Conservative throwing the dynamic inside out and turning the Libs into an also-ran force.  LLB was a total '15 "shouldn't have happened" fluke; Avignon happened in '15 largely by default through the ex-Bloc incumbent splitting the separatist vote; Saint-Jean & Montarville provincially border onto the Bloc leader's riding, and Montarville over 10% might be pure happenstance.

The thing is, there were surprisingly few Lib-to-Bloc steals in '19 (most of the uptake came from walking-dead NDPers), and some of those came from Montreal outskirts where there were ex-MPs bidding to take back their seats and more of a baked-in base that wasn't just '15 caught-up-in-the-Justin-rapture.

[DC Al Fine]

The New Brunswick seats are a classic case of a leader winning stretch seats in their first big win (and Harper being a uniquely bad fit for Atlantic Canada).

West Nova (and South Shore-St. Margaret's) are more the result of the Liberals royally screwing up on the Indigenous fisheries protests (see also the Nova Scotia election results).

[mileslunn]

The New Brunswick seats are a classic case of a leader winning stretch seats in their first big win (and Harper being a uniquely bad fit for Atlantic Canada).

West Nova (and South Shore-St. Margaret's) are more the result of the Liberals royally screwing up on the Indigenous fisheries protests (see also the Nova Scotia election results).

Miramichi-Grand Lake only real swing of the 4 Tory seats in New Brunswick.  The three Baptist belt ones much like Hastings-Lennox & Addington in Ontario and Kelowna-Lake Country in BC were one offs in 2015 which few expected to go Liberal so fact they've swung back to Tories is no surprise.

Bernadette Jordan losing on paper seemed long shot as she won by 13 points in 2019, but I heard fishing community hated her and they really mobilized to defeat her.  My bet is almost every fisherman and family of one voted Conservative and that was probably enough to tip riding.  West Nova was case of Tories getting a popular provincial MLA while Liberals a no name and then winning on incumbency.  Cumberland-Colchester though was clearly a case of Tories winning, but the panhandle of Nova Scotia is without question the most conservative part of province.  After all they elected a former PC MLA who ran as independent and was anti COVID restrictions.

Probably the biggest shock in Atlantic Canada was Scott Simms losing.  I don't think many saw that coming.  Not sure even Tories were expecting that.  On Liberal side biggest shock was picking up Richmond Centre which I heard was not on their target list.  But it seems both parties missed the massive shift in Chinese-Canadian community from Tories to Liberals.