2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results
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Author Topic: 2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results  (Read 59530 times)
adma
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« Reply #925 on: October 11, 2021, 11:17:36 PM »
« edited: October 12, 2021, 06:01:03 AM by adma »


If you're an American and commenting on a Canadian election, you should be aware that Canadian ridings tend to have far greater swings from election to election than American U.S House districts.  So, whereas a 55-45% U.S House district is barely competitive unless that was the result in a wave year, in Canada that's much more competitive historically.


I can't help thinking of the bemusement of a lot of Canadians when they hear of a Mississippi US Senate race being deemed "safe GOP" even at a projected 55-45 margin--but that's all heavily racialized terminal inelasticity making its mark...

The size of our electorates is much larger, so the number of votes difference between a Canadian Parliament seat being spread by 10 points and a U.S. Senate seat being spread by 10 points is very large.

Doesn't matter; it's not about the size, it's about the inelasticity.  That is, if you break Mississippi down into Canadian-style and Canadian-size constituencies, you'd have that same inflexibility problem--IOW everything depends not upon "swaying" voters, but upon turnout and gerrymander.  

Closest thing to "elasticity" might be if Memphisburban growth is "moderating" DeSoto County.
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the506
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« Reply #926 on: October 12, 2021, 09:31:42 AM »

Anybody know how long it usually takes before Elections Canada post poll by poll results?  I am guessing sometime in November.  Would like to make some county and municipal maps like I have in past.

We're not getting the official poll by poll results until 2022. Maybe well into 2022.

The preliminary results are available to media outlets who ask, but EC is stingy with who they give it out to for some weird reason.
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« Reply #927 on: October 12, 2021, 10:22:50 AM »

Is there a possible way Tories can make inroads in Quebec to make their path easier . Say they got 30 seats in Quebec and say 16 in Atlantic Canada and held all the Scheer seats , that would take them to 153 seats meaning they only need a little over 50 in Ontario to get a majority
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« Reply #928 on: October 12, 2021, 10:57:08 AM »

Is there a possible way Tories can make inroads in Quebec to make their path easier . Say they got 30 seats in Quebec and say 16 in Atlantic Canada and held all the Scheer seats , that would take them to 153 seats meaning they only need a little over 50 in Ontario to get a majority

If they got a leader from that province, they might get such numbers - otherwise I don't see it happening.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #929 on: October 12, 2021, 11:11:28 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2021, 08:41:29 PM by mileslunn »

Is there a possible way Tories can make inroads in Quebec to make their path easier . Say they got 30 seats in Quebec and say 16 in Atlantic Canada and held all the Scheer seats , that would take them to 153 seats meaning they only need a little over 50 in Ontario to get a majority

Possible, I mean CAQ wins much of the regions of Quebec but with BQ appealing to the nationalist vote it is very tough.  Not impossible but not exactly likely.  16 in Atlantic Canada is far more doable.  Not easy either, but not impossible.  Big thing for Tories is most are PCs in Atlantic Canada and Harper loathed so more they can get away from Harper era better chances are.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #930 on: October 12, 2021, 08:18:06 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2021, 08:28:23 PM by Frank »

Is there a possible way Tories can make inroads in Quebec to make their path easier . Say they got 30 seats in Quebec and say 16 in Atlantic Canada and held all the Scheer seats , that would take them to 153 seats meaning they only need a little over 50 in Ontario to get a majority

The last time the (Progressive) Conservatives dominated Quebec was with Brian Mulroney in the 1984 and 1988 Quebec elections.  1984 was about 'time for a change' probably as much as the 'native son' aspects.  With the brief exception of in 1979, the Liberals had been in power from 1963-1984.  Since 1935, the (Progressive) Conservatives have basically only come to power when voters tire of long Liberal governments.

I'm sure there are people who know a lot more on this than I do, but Quebecers seems to swing, especially on economics, between the center left and the center right, as they seem to go through periods of sort of championing government involvement in the economy, and then go through periods of championing businesses, especially, obviously, Quebec businesses.

The 1988 election was the perfect storm for the Progressive Conservatives in Quebec. This was a period with Liberal Premier Robert Bourassa who was a pro-business/pro economic development especially with hydro electric power Liberal, a time when Quebecers were pro businesses with Quebec business success stories like Bombardier, and an election fought on free trade that both the separatists and the federalists supported.  The federalists thought it would be good for businesses, while the separatists thought that being part of a wider free trade group would pave the way for Quebec independence.   Both of the major provincial parties in Quebec at that time at least tacitly endorsed the Progressive Conservatives.

In 1993, Quebec of course swung heavily to the Bloc Quebecois and remained but less so in 1997.  In the 2000 election the Liberals under Prime Minister Chretien had increased their standing to the point where the election result was basically a tie.  In 2004, the polling prior to the Sponsorship scandal showed Quebec swinging heavily to the Liberals under Prime Minister Paul Martin, an Anglo Quebecer (originally from Windsor, Ontario where his father was a long time M.P.)  But, after the sponsorship scandal, Quebec instead swung back heavily to the Bloc Quebecois.

In 2011, of course the province swung away from the Bloc which had come to be seen as ineffective in Ottawa and to the NDP led by the Ontarian Jack Layton whose father (Robert Layton) was a Cabinet Minister from the Montreal area in the Mulroney Cabinet.

So, that's the history.  My takeaway is that:
1.With the exception of somewhat 1984, more-so 1988 and 2011 that Montreal, with the somewhat exception of East End Montreal, has been heavily Liberal.

2.Quebecers including in Montreal can swing heavily to one political party and that the party doesn't have to be led by a Quebecer, though having roots in Quebec certainly seems to help.

Quebec under Francois Legault does seem to have shifted back to the center right on economics.  I believe this is one of the reasons why the Conservatives were so hopeful initially of making major gains in Quebec and why they shamelessly pandered to Quebec.

I think the Conservatives can try to gain seats in Quebec going one of two ways, but either way, I think they have to be more 'Red Tories.'  It seems that even in the Quebec City area, which seems to be the most conservative region in Quebec, that even conservatives there generally prefer 'Red Tories.'

Regionally, the Bloc Quebecois, other than to some degree the Montreal suburbs, hold ridings that fit the Conservative profile outside of Quebec: smaller cities, towns and rural areas.  Those are definitely the areas where the Conservatives seemed to focus on this election, And polling does show that for many Quebecers in these areas that vote Bloc, their second choice is often the Conservatives. However, obviously under this scenario, the Bloc would basically need to disappear.  

I think there might be a second possibility though for a 'Red Tory' party that would be consistent with prior elections, but it would take for the public to get sick of the Liberals, that the Conservatives in Quebec focus more on Montreal and the Gatineau area with the argument that 'the Liberals take you for granted.'  Clearly the Conservatives have not done well in Montreal or the Gatineau for more than 30 years now, but we have seen how Quebecers can swing dramatically from one election to the next.  

I believe this was somewhat the strategy that Joe Clark tried in 1979 (but the Liberals were dominant throughout Quebec at that time, not just in Montreal) but rather than simply run on 'time for a change' he tried to oppose Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau's political/philosophical views on Federalism with the argument that Canada was a 'community of communities.'  Had I voted in that election, I would have voted Progressive Conservative, but the net result for Joe Clark was that the P.Cs lost one of their three seats in Quebec. (The Liberals got a popular P.C M.P Claude Wagner to retire by appointing him as a judge and they gained his riding.)
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #931 on: October 12, 2021, 08:41:52 PM »

I counted a narrow defeat as any riding lost by around 12.5%.  I chose 12.5% for my cutoff, after initially having it at 10%, because I kept wanting to find more close riding losses for the N.D.P but many of the ridings they lost were somewhere between 10-12.5%, so I decided to make it 12.5%

Selection bias.

Any cutoff point for what is and isn't a narrow defeat is arbitrary.  It's only a half a dozen or so ridings that were greater than 12.5% that I considered to be narrow defeats.  

You chose to change your definition of what you considered close to benefit a particular group. Granted, you can do the results for 10%, but if you're wanting to do a mathematical analysis of results, you need to take a cruel unsympathetic point of view and not caring what is outside or inside based on how it makes your results look unless you're specifically being a blind partisan, perhaps even to yourself. Numbers don't have feelings. So you change it from 10% to 12.5% to help the NDP, and then you include extra results right outside that number, so really it's not 12.5%, it's 13%. You lay out in your post the case you want to make and then before you even start diving into the numbers make your case more wishy-washy. Just trying to help you become better.

Two points here:
1.I disagree with your assertion that 'hard numbers' automatically provide the best analysis.  'Hard numbers' are often a rather simple analysis.  They don't take into consideration either the elasticities of a riding or the trends in the riding.  I don't really know the elasticities in any riding, but I did try to take into account the trends.  I'm not saying that 'hard numbers don't provide a reasonable analysis, but they are merely one method and I don't think there is necessarily any one best method.  I agree that the 'hybrid' method I used often doesn't satisfy anybody.

2.I'm not a partisan New Democrat, but I know that many people in this board are partisan New Democrats, and all I was trying to do was avoid hurting their feelings.

When I posted I was thinking of an interview that a Much Music journalist, a man named Kim Clark Champniss did with the Bee Gees.  I forget the question, but one of the Bee Gees was so enraged with one question that he temporarily walked out of the interview, and one of his brothers said to Champniss something like "You had to do that, didn't you?  He's really a lovely man, but he's sensitive and you just had to piss him off, didn't you?"

With that, I did indeed follow up and do the breakdown with a hard 10% gap, which I'm going to post right now.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #932 on: October 12, 2021, 09:02:51 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2021, 09:06:20 PM by Frank »

This is the breakdown of ridings with a hard 10% gap.  

With this, there are just 12 ridings that were three way races.
1.Beauport-Limoilou
2.Trois Rivieres
3.Hamilton-Mountain (Hamilton Mountain?)
4.Nickel Belt
5.Sudbury
6.Thunder Bay-Rainy River
7.Windsor-Tecumseh
8.Edmonton Centre
9.Nanaimo-Ladysmith
10.Port Moody-Coquitlam
11.Vancouver-Granville
12.West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country-Delhi-Seoul-Washington-New York
(sorry, just protesting the silly long name.)

There are 90 competitive ridings won by less than 10%
Atlantic: 9
Quebec: 20
Ontario: 36
Manitoba: 1
Saskatchewan: 1
Alberta: 4
British Columbia: 17
Territories: 2
Total: 90

Close losses by Party
Conservative: 51
Liberal: 20
NDP: 20
B.Q: 10
Green: 1
Total: 102

Close wins by Party
Conservative: 16
Liberal: 57
NDP: 8
B.Q: 9
Total: 90

Remember, there were 12 three way races, and 102-90= 12

Range:
Conservative: 103-170
Liberal: 103-180
NDP: 17-45
B.Q: 23-42
Green: 2-3
Total: 248-440

338 total ridings - 90 close ridings = 248 'safe' ridings.
338 total ridings +90 close ridings + 12 three way races = 440

The Conservatives won 16 of 67 ridings that they were competitive in.
The Liberals won 57 of 77 ridings that they were competitive in.
The NDP won 8 of 28 ridings that they were competitive in.  

The main thing though obviously about the NDP, is that with a 10% cutoff, the NDP could probably be classified as a 'large fringe party' at least in terms of ability to win or even be competitive in ridings.  

Reluctance to point that out is why I went with the 'not hard' 12.5% cutoff.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #933 on: October 12, 2021, 09:26:58 PM »

These are the close losses by party and their losing gap. 
Bolded ridings are three way races

Liberal
1.Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame 0.9%, defeated Liberal incumbent
2.South Shore-St. Margaret's, 3.8, defeated Liberal incumbent
3.Miramichi-Grand Lake, 4.4, Liberal open seat
4.Beauport-Limoilou, 5.7
5.La Prairie, 9.1
6.Longeuil-St. Hubert, 2.9
7.Riviere des Mille Iles, 5.3
8.Shefford, 8.4
9.Therese de Blainville, 6.0
10.Trois Rivieres, 0.9
11.Bay of Quinte, 4.8, defeated Liberal incumbent
12.Flamborough-Glanbrook, 5.1
13.King-Vaughan, 2.2, defeated Liberal incumbent
14.Niagara Falls, 4.4
15.Peterborough-Kawartha, 3.9, defeated Liberal incumbent
16.Charleswood-St. James- Assiniboia-Headingly-Nickel Back-Northern Pikes, 1.0

(Given that this is a riding in the city of Winnipeg, it's an even sillier name, as it's as lengthy as a name for a rural riding, so it can be a bit confusing.  'Headingly' reminded me of the awful Canadian band Headley, so that's bound to lead a Canadian with music taste to other awful Canadian bands like Nickel Back and the Northern Pikes.)

17.Edmonton-Mill Wood, 3.9
18.Burnaby South, 9.9
19.Port Moody-Coquitlam, 9.9
20.South Surrey-White Rock, 3.5

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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #934 on: October 12, 2021, 09:45:28 PM »

NDP
1.Halifax, 3.0%
2.Berthier-Maskinonge, 1.7
3.Laurier-Sainte Marie, 5.1
4.Davenport, 0.1
5.Essex, 9.3
6.Hamilton-Mountain, 1.7, NDP open seat
7.Nickel Belt, 8.6
8.Parkdale-High Park, 3.3
9.Spadina-Fort York, 4.4
10.Sudbury, 5.0
11.Thunder Bay-Rainy River, 5.8
12.Windsor-Tecumseh, 1.1
13.Saskatoon West, 6.1
14.Edmonton Centre, 4.9
15.Kootenay-Columbia, 5.3
16.Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, 4.8
17.Vancouver-Centre, 9.7
18.Vancouver-Granville, 0.9
19.West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, 8.3
20.Northwest Territories, 5.9
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #935 on: October 12, 2021, 09:54:30 PM »

B.Q
1.Argentuil-La Petite Nation, 3.0%
2.Brome-Missisquoi, 0.4
3.Chateaguay-La Colle, 0.0
4.Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, 7.6 (only riding B.Q narrowly lost to Conservatives)
5.Compton-Stanstead, 6.1
6.Gaspesie-Les Iles de la Madeleine, 7.1
7.Hochelaga, 6.5
8.Longeuil-Charles Le Moyne, 5.1
9.Quebec, 6.4
10.Sherbrooke, 8.5

Green
1.Nanaimo-Ladysmith, 3.1

I'll add the Conservatives later
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mileslunn
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« Reply #936 on: October 12, 2021, 10:05:54 PM »

I look at both gap between parties, past results, provincial results (for ideological make up and possibilities even though not always same) and overall trends to.  If a riding used to vote a certain way but you see a steady trend away, its probably not going back.  If a riding has never voted for a certain point, but you see it trending a certain way, good chance it flips at some point.  Best way to judge trends is look at how far off percentage was with national results.  If a riding was L+9 one election, L+6 next, and then L+2, then you can say its trending away from the Liberals for example. 

Quebec is without question the most elastic, but usually its pretty steady, but when they do swing, they tend to swing hard.  Also there is reversion to mean too.  In 2019, swing in Atlantic Canada was much bigger than most provinces as Liberals were at ridiculously high levels and Tories ridiculously low so you were bound to get some reversion to mean thus larger swing.  Other elastic ones I find are Downtown Toronto as they seem to be mostly promiscuous progressives and will never vote Tory, but can swing quite heavily between NDP or Liberals.  Most there unlike 416 suburbs and 905 (where many are Blue Liberals thus would never go NDP, but some might go Tory) lean left here and will swing heavily behind whichever party most likely to stop the Tories. 

Another is just straight up demographics and what parties do well there.  Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, and Northern Ontario saw Tories a lot closer than normal in ridings they normally aren't even competitive in.  But based on demographics in those ridings, this could more a case of starting to align with how other similar ones already vote.  If Calgary one election swung heavily Liberal, you could say same things as based on demographics of Calgary, it should be going Liberal not Tory.  It likely only goes Conservative due to feeling Liberals are hostile towards province so if you had a Liberal leader who was Alberta friendly, you could see a big swing that way. 
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adma
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« Reply #937 on: October 13, 2021, 05:27:34 AM »

Another is just straight up demographics and what parties do well there.  Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, and Northern Ontario saw Tories a lot closer than normal in ridings they normally aren't even competitive in.  But based on demographics in those ridings, this could more a case of starting to align with how other similar ones already vote.  If Calgary one election swung heavily Liberal, you could say same things as based on demographics of Calgary, it should be going Liberal not Tory.  It likely only goes Conservative due to feeling Liberals are hostile towards province so if you had a Liberal leader who was Alberta friendly, you could see a big swing that way. 

I'm still circumspect about whether rural Newfoundland really belongs in that category, mainly because it's been through this before (like, 1997 after 1993), and there's still a lot of in-riding variants that depend on candidates and ground teams and local issues.  Generally speaking, relative to the Libs, rural Newfoundland has played out over the years more like the proverbial grunge record (soft, and then LOUD, and then soft, and then LOUD). 

Though it could be that we'll never see 1993/2015-style landslides again--but when it comes to corresponding with patterns elsewhere, rural Newfoundland shifting terminally away from the Libs is not so much a "given" as urban Newfoundland (the St. John's ridings) shifting terminally away from the Cons.

(The Cape Breton seats are a little different due to their unique-for-Atlantic-Canada Rust Belt situation.  If they *might* be analogous to anything, it's Sault Ste Marie.)
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« Reply #938 on: October 13, 2021, 09:55:48 AM »

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.
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« Reply #939 on: October 13, 2021, 11:12:09 AM »

The recount in Brome - Missisquoi has stopped, as the Bloc candidate has conceded the race and the Liberals hold the seat.

Davenport now the only recount left to finish; I imagine that will be completed later today.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #940 on: October 13, 2021, 03:16:42 PM »

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.

Very true, although even before Harper, Liberals tended to win rural NL while Tories would win St. John's.  Now it seems to be reverse as rural NL competitive while St. John's Liberal/NDP and Tories in distant third.  After all Harper won the two St. John's ridings in 2004 and 2006 before Williams' ABC campaign, but those have not seen party rebound.  So probably true hatred of Harper is why strong in 2011, but overall rural/urban divide is why this is swinging Tory, but St. John's is not. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #941 on: October 13, 2021, 03:24:20 PM »

Another is just straight up demographics and what parties do well there.  Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, and Northern Ontario saw Tories a lot closer than normal in ridings they normally aren't even competitive in.  But based on demographics in those ridings, this could more a case of starting to align with how other similar ones already vote.  If Calgary one election swung heavily Liberal, you could say same things as based on demographics of Calgary, it should be going Liberal not Tory.  It likely only goes Conservative due to feeling Liberals are hostile towards province so if you had a Liberal leader who was Alberta friendly, you could see a big swing that way. 

I'm still circumspect about whether rural Newfoundland really belongs in that category, mainly because it's been through this before (like, 1997 after 1993), and there's still a lot of in-riding variants that depend on candidates and ground teams and local issues.  Generally speaking, relative to the Libs, rural Newfoundland has played out over the years more like the proverbial grunge record (soft, and then LOUD, and then soft, and then LOUD). 

Though it could be that we'll never see 1993/2015-style landslides again--but when it comes to corresponding with patterns elsewhere, rural Newfoundland shifting terminally away from the Libs is not so much a "given" as urban Newfoundland (the St. John's ridings) shifting terminally away from the Cons.

(The Cape Breton seats are a little different due to their unique-for-Atlantic-Canada Rust Belt situation.  If they *might* be analogous to anything, it's Sault Ste Marie.)

True, although until recently, generally Tories did better in St. John's than rural NL while Liberals better in rural NL than St. John's irrespective of how it went.  Now true in 2011, Tories did do better in rural NL than St. John's but so did Liberals as St. John's went NDP then while NDP is very weak in rural NL.  In fact biggest thing Liberals have going in rural NL is NDP is so weak Tories cracking 40% isn't enough to win there whereas in most parts of the country it is.  Long Range Mountains Tories just got under 40% and in Bonavista-Trinity-Burin over it.  Likewise even in riding they lost, Liberals still got 45%.  In fact I actually think Tories would have only won 6 seats in Atlantic Canada if there was a PPC candidate in all ridings as both Coast of Bays-Notre Dame and South Shore-St. Margaret's had no PPC candidate which probably helped Tories.  Likewise Fredericton would have probably not been that close if there was a PPC candidate (PANB does very well there and while separate, I would expect some spillover but certainly not all or even most). 
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adma
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« Reply #942 on: October 13, 2021, 04:43:17 PM »

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.

Very true, although even before Harper, Liberals tended to win rural NL while Tories would win St. John's.  Now it seems to be reverse as rural NL competitive while St. John's Liberal/NDP and Tories in distant third.  After all Harper won the two St. John's ridings in 2004 and 2006 before Williams' ABC campaign, but those have not seen party rebound.  So probably true hatred of Harper is why strong in 2011, but overall rural/urban divide is why this is swinging Tory, but St. John's is not. 

It's not so much Harper who won those ridings in '04 and '06 as incumbents Norman Doyle and Loyola Hearn, carryovers from the PC era.  Once they left, Con support plummeted to the basement.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #943 on: October 13, 2021, 06:04:11 PM »

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.

Very true, although even before Harper, Liberals tended to win rural NL while Tories would win St. John's.  Now it seems to be reverse as rural NL competitive while St. John's Liberal/NDP and Tories in distant third.  After all Harper won the two St. John's ridings in 2004 and 2006 before Williams' ABC campaign, but those have not seen party rebound.  So probably true hatred of Harper is why strong in 2011, but overall rural/urban divide is why this is swinging Tory, but St. John's is not. 

It's not so much Harper who won those ridings in '04 and '06 as incumbents Norman Doyle and Loyola Hearn, carryovers from the PC era.  Once they left, Con support plummeted to the basement.

Partly true but they also left when Danny Williams started the ABC campaign so both would have lost their seats pretty badly even had they stayed on.  Now probably true St. John's was already moving this way and ABC campaign simply cemented it.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #944 on: October 14, 2021, 03:19:39 AM »

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.

"Their Tory Premier"  Danny Williams!
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #945 on: October 14, 2021, 03:24:54 AM »

I look at both gap between parties, past results, provincial results (for ideological make up and possibilities even though not always same) and overall trends to.  If a riding used to vote a certain way but you see a steady trend away, its probably not going back.  If a riding has never voted for a certain point, but you see it trending a certain way, good chance it flips at some point.  Best way to judge trends is look at how far off percentage was with national results.  If a riding was L+9 one election, L+6 next, and then L+2, then you can say its trending away from the Liberals for example. 

Quebec is without question the most elastic, but usually its pretty steady, but when they do swing, they tend to swing hard.  Also there is reversion to mean too.  In 2019, swing in Atlantic Canada was much bigger than most provinces as Liberals were at ridiculously high levels and Tories ridiculously low so you were bound to get some reversion to mean thus larger swing.  Other elastic ones I find are Downtown Toronto as they seem to be mostly promiscuous progressives and will never vote Tory, but can swing quite heavily between NDP or Liberals.  Most there unlike 416 suburbs and 905 (where many are Blue Liberals thus would never go NDP, but some might go Tory) lean left here and will swing heavily behind whichever party most likely to stop the Tories. 

Another is just straight up demographics and what parties do well there.  Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, and Northern Ontario saw Tories a lot closer than normal in ridings they normally aren't even competitive in.  But based on demographics in those ridings, this could more a case of starting to align with how other similar ones already vote.  If Calgary one election swung heavily Liberal, you could say same things as based on demographics of Calgary, it should be going Liberal not Tory.  It likely only goes Conservative due to feeling Liberals are hostile towards province so if you had a Liberal leader who was Alberta friendly, you could see a big swing that way. 

In terms of Northern Ontario, to be sure this is based on stereotypes and myths and I don't know how true either are, but...

In the southern rural ridings,  there is supposedly a myth of 'rugged individualism' that tends to have people there voting for right wing political parties, whereas in northern rural ridings there is a myth of 'communitarianism' that has people voting for left wing political parties.  To be sure, that myth doesn't hold in north eastern British Columbia or in Alberta, but it may be a factor elsewhere.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #946 on: October 14, 2021, 06:59:31 AM »

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.

To add to what Earl said, the Tories did better in rural Newfoundland this election than they did in 1997 with the Atlantic Chretien backlash, or Mulroney's 1988 result. This indicates that rural Newfoundland has had a rightward trend that goes beyond individual candidates doing well.
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Njall
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« Reply #947 on: October 14, 2021, 12:05:44 PM »

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.

To add to what Earl said, the Tories did better in rural Newfoundland this election than they did in 1997 with the Atlantic Chretien backlash, or Mulroney's 1988 result. This indicates that rural Newfoundland has had a rightward trend that goes beyond individual candidates doing well.

I heard an anecdote from a friend after the 2019 election which indicated this could have been the case. She worked in Scheer's office at the time and had said that one of her colleagues had basically been drafted to run as a paper candidate in one of the rural Newfoundland ridings (I think either Long Range Mountains or Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame) because they couldn't find a local candidate in time. Whichever one it was, apparently he did little-to-no campaigning there, instead helping out candidates elsewhere in the Atlantic provinces, but on election night the CPC vote share with him on the ballot increased by over 15%.
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« Reply #948 on: October 14, 2021, 02:36:58 PM »

I guess we're starting to see NL start to behave more like the rest of the Western world, and ditch its ancestral voting patterns.
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beesley
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« Reply #949 on: October 14, 2021, 03:17:59 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 04:40:16 PM by beesley »


I heard an anecdote from a friend after the 2019 election which indicated this could have been the case. She worked in Scheer's office at the time and had said that one of her colleagues had basically been drafted to run as a paper candidate in one of the rural Newfoundland ridings (I think either Long Range Mountains or Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame) because they couldn't find a local candidate in time. Whichever one it was, apparently he did little-to-no campaigning there, instead helping out candidates elsewhere in the Atlantic provinces, but on election night the CPC vote share with him on the ballot increased by over 15%.

Yes - that was Josh Eisses in Long Range Mountains.
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