2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Pericles]

Are the mail-in votes supposed to be more Conservative or Liberal?

[Oryxslayer]

Are the mail-in votes supposed to be more Conservative or Liberal?

https://twitter.com/AngusReid/status/1439380510904520705?s=20

As usually though, grain of salt. Mail votes are like 8-9% of the estimated 33% of 2019 turnout who voted through the equivalent of early in-person. High/Low turnout on its own doesn't benefit anyone - it's where the high/low turnout is occurring.

it is only mail votes are that are not counted tonight, other types of early votes actually can start getting counted a bit before polls close.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/paulisci/status/1440060935171817474?s=20

Whenever parties are like this they want to set expectations low.

[Continential]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2021/results/
The results if you want a link to it

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/alexboutilier/status/1440047306858921987?s=21

[Suburbia]

Does Bernier's party have the potential to take away votes from the Tories?

Did any major Canadian endorse Bernier, like Don Cherry, etc?

[Vosem]

Getting conflicting responses: I presume low turnout favours Tories?

Probably just disfavors the parties with youth-skewed support, like the NDP or PPC. I'm not sure it makes a difference between Tories and Liberals, especially since some data shows the Liberals are the party with the oldest support?

[H. Ross Peron]

Is there any good equivalent to this article from the last Canadian election?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2019/battlegrounds/

[KaiserDave]

I am predicting a liberal majority but I'd like to be proven wrong.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Getting conflicting responses: I presume low turnout favours Tories?

That's the assumption, because Tories tend to be more motivated to vote (and polling shows this). Every election that Harper won had lower turnout than Trudeau's two wins, for example. But drawing a link between turnout and party performance isn't necessarily that simple.

A better metric I think is polling error. Turnout is linked to polling error, as most polls weigh by census data and not turnout rates. I think Hatman said on the earlier thread that you can probably take 1-2 pts off the NDP's numbers in EKOS because they're getting high NDP support from low-turnout groups, and I assume it's the same for other pollsters.

Age and education tend to be predictors of turnout - seniors and university-educated voters turn out at higher rates. University-educated voters tend to be more to the left, mainly the Liberals but also the NDP, but NDP always gets screwed by low support from seniors. This time out, Liberals seem to be polling best among the 55+ group. This works to the Liberals' favour.

Historically, the CPC outperforms polls or at least finishes on par. They were roughly on par in 2006 and 2015, but clearly outperformed polls in 2008, 2011 and 2019 - likely because of high base motivation. 2004 is the exception where the polls predicted a close finish but on E-day Paul Martin's Liberals pulled ahead. During this period, NDP support was overestimated in every election (2015 is debatable because momentum was clearly against them). This suggests that NDP voters are less likely to turn out.

All this to say, yes the CPC will probably outperform expectations because of low turnout, while the NDP will probably underperform. The silver lining for the Liberals is the LPC shift among seniors, because if older voters disproportionately turned out (as they always do), it's probably to their benefit.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://theturtleislandnews.com/index.php/2021/09/20/federal-election-poll-moves-off-six-nations-after-haudenosaunee-confederacy-council-supporters-block-driveway/
✊✊✊

Great. Another of those rogue Native "governments", who are in fact a cover for weapon and drugs smuggling.

Tell me you're from Quebec wothout telling me you're from Quebec

There is an huge spike of gun violence in Montreal caused by guns smuggled from the Awkwasne reservation on the Quebec/Ontario/New York State border and it is a known zone of outlawness.

Native self-government and auto-determination cannot serve as cover and/or puppets for international crime rings.

As you can read in the article, they are literaly blocking their own members from voting, which is totally illegal and outrageous.

Agreed, and this is a reminder that indigenous communities are often themselves divided on political issues, including whether or not they should participate in Canadian democracy. It's not racist to point out that there are well-documented examples of mismanagement and corruption in indigenous governments - of course, that goes with the caveat that Canada has a long history of preventing effective indigenous government, and state policies have often imposed poverty and denied economic opportunities, paving the way for crime and corruption to take hold of many communities.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Is there any good equivalent to this article from the last Canadian election?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2019/battlegrounds/

If you have an ipolitics subscription, they have a list of ridings across the country that are close along with projected vote share. Ipolitics has a pretty good reputation on these things, but their projections are based on Mainstreet polling and not the polling consensus (Mainstreet is showing more Liberal-friendly numbers than the consensus, so keep that caveat in mind). Hill Times also has a good reputation and a list of 30 close seats, but alas, I'm paywalled.

680news put this out. I've never heard of 680news nor their reputation, but their picks look pretty close to the polling consensus.

The least worst free resource is probably just 338Canada. Any riding they project as "toss up" or "leaning" is probably worth watching.

[Mike88]

TV coverage of election night:

Global News

[Oryxslayer]

CBC's stream is live on their site for those that want their coverage, even if you are abroad. Official primetime broadcast starts at 6:30est.

[MaxQue]

Anyone been to a polling station today? Will be skewed by postal voting, but preliminary insights on turnout?

Heavier than expected, age profile was also younger than expected given my neighbourhood.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/alexboutilier/status/1440047480805027840

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/alexboutilier/status/1440047480805027840

Expectations management?

[Oryxslayer]

Expectations management?

Of course, under these easy goalposts O'Toole could claim a success if the seat models projections of a result similar to 2019 come to pass. Of course it won't stop his ouster if the Tories don't go up significantly, nor Trudeau's eventual similar fate if said numbers play out.

[BigSerg]

Lol 2 pages... It is obvious that this is not the United States ;(

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Behave or get out of the thread.

[DC Al Fine]

Expectations management?

Of course, under these easy goalposts O'Toole could claim a success if the seat models projections of a result similar to 2019 come to pass. Of course it won't stop his ouster if the Tories don't go up significantly, nor Trudeau's eventual similar fate if said numbers play out.

It's kind of weird because if you told me when the writ was dropped that Trudeau was held to a minority I'd call that a modest win. Funny how events change expectations haha.

[TrumpBritt24]

CBC having no purple/Bernier/coverage of PPC is a little Nineteen Eighty-Four-ish.

CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc. at least shows the Greens and Libertarians for a second. Some even showed Kanye West in November. How is this not obvious bias?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I'm predicting a Liberal Minority govt.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls have now closed in the home of the Good Puppers.



Votes cast ahead of time in-person could begin to be counted 1 hour before polls closed. These MAY be the first to appear.

I'm watching St. John East, Bonavista, and Labrador.

[Crumpets]

First results!

Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame

Liberals 23 votes
Conservatives 4 votes

Discuss with maps.