2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results
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Author Topic: 2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results  (Read 59555 times)
adma
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« Reply #1050 on: September 12, 2022, 05:42:59 AM »

And interesting side note, Doug Ford PCs flipped Oshawa from NDP in 2022 (part of municipality in Durham)

Because of the narrowness of Jennifer French's victories vs the Ford Tories and the N Oshawa parts which lie within Durham riding (where the NDP won no polls in *2018*, never mind 2022), I'm not sure there's much "interesting" here--most pundits would agree that French hanging on at all in '22 was the greater surprise.

Quote
Muskoka District

Conservatives 48% (+8)
Liberals          22% (-9)
NDP               17% (+6)
PPC                7% (+7)
Greens           6% (-10)

It seems like in many touristy areas, O'Toole's more moderate style of conservatism helped.  Tories won all six municipalities this time while in 2019 Bracebridge was only that went Liberal.  Wahta Mohawk Territory had too few votes for Elections Canada to publish for confidentiality reasons so no idea how it voted but my guess is NDP but who knows.

What also helped was the sinking-in fact of *Scott Aitchison's* more moderate style of conservatism--and even more importantly, the fact that the Liberals ran a parachute from the GTA (as opposed to, in '19, the candidate who came close to upsetting Tony Clement in '15--and judging from the *provincial* Liberal debacle within the riding, the PSM Liberals at large seem in disarray).

Quote
PPC topped 20% in Leamington and it seems like a really economically depressed area thus ripe for populism

Actually, when it comes to Leamington, populism doesn't explain PPC strength so much as the Malahide-esque evangelical base (especially in the rural Mersea parts)

Quote
Combined right is 79% in Oil Springs which was highest in Ontario and based on name no surprise.

The blue strength in Oil Springs is ancestral; the historical petro-economy is incidental to said strength, unless one wants to project Simpsons Texas Guy inclinations upon *everyplace* that has black stuff oozing from the ground.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1051 on: September 12, 2022, 09:25:28 AM »

Muskoka was much more interesting in the provincial election due to the Green strength there.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1052 on: September 12, 2022, 02:04:03 PM »

Looking at shifts so far, my general thought is see following trends.

Liberals: Were beneficiaries of decline in Green support in areas where NDP is weak while from Conservatives, only big swing over was Chinese community where it appears many voted Tory 2019 and Liberal 2021.  It appears lost some Blue Liberals to Conservatives.  Not a lot and not enough to make a difference but definitely Liberal 2019-Conservative 2021 voters existed and tended to be more educated with above average incomes.  Loss to NDP mostly in areas were not competitive in.

Conservatives:  Party did gain some Liberal voters despite overall vote total not changing.  Just Liberal gains offset by losses to PPC although most Liberal gains were in right areas but only enough to close gap, not actually flip seats.  It seems if university educated with higher incomes, many like lower taxes and balanced budgets but don't care about cultural conservatism so Trudeau's big spending made them uneasy, but cultural conservatism did too and O'Toole's moderation helped bring them over.  Lost a fair bit to PPC but mostly in rural strongholds they were winning anyways.  Probably types angry at O'Toole for moderating, but again this group was largely in ridings they were winning easily anyways. 

NDP: Picked up a fair bit from Greens in BC and had some minor shifts but nothing too major.  As for NDP-Tory voters, most of those likely switched earlier or went first to non-voter then went Conservative.  I don't think NDP 2019-Conservative 2021 were that numerous.  Maybe some ancestral in Northern Ontario and a few blue collar ridings in BC flipped but that was about it.  There were probably more Conservative 2019-NDP 2021 voters although this group was overwhelmingly in Alberta.  Probably people who voted Conservative by habit, but unpopularity of UCP and fact now supporting NDP provincially pushed them over to NDP federally.

PPC: While a lot came from Conservatives, you cannot add two together.  A sizeable chunk were probably previous non-voters who felt no party represented them so if no PPC would have stayed home.  Also some Greens amongst your hippy types switched because they are against vaccines since against putting non-natural products in body even if on other issues disagree with them.

Greens:  Mostly lost votes and both Liberals and NDP benefitted.  In Atlantic Canada seems more Liberals while BC more NDP.  Some went PPC but that cohort fairly small.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1053 on: September 12, 2022, 04:59:26 PM »

Saskatchewan

Because Quebec will take longest I am skipping to Saskatchewan but will do Quebec over next week when I have time.  Unless otherwise stated, Saskatchewan is pretty boring as Conservatives win every municipality outside North and Indian Reserves which in case of latter all go NDP former mix of NDP and Liberals.  Saskatoon and Regina had sections Conservatives didn't win but still won city overall

Division 1

Conservatives 79% (-9)
PPC                9% (+7)
NDP                6% (+1)
Liberals           3% (-)
Greens            0% (-1)

Division 2

Conservatives 75% (-10)
PPC                10% (+8)
NDP                8% (-)
Liberals           4% (-)
Greens            0% (-2)

Division 3

Conservatives 71% (-8)
NDP               10% (-)
PPC                10% (+7)
Liberals           5% (-)
Greens            1% (-1)

Division 4

Conservatives 71% (-10)
NDP               9% (+1)
PPC                7% (+5)
Liberals           4% (-1)
Greens            1% (-1)

Division 5

Conservatives 71% (-7)
NDP               11% (-)
PPC                9% (+7)
Liberals           6% (-)
Greens           1% (-2)

Division 6

Conservatives 53% (-3)
NDP               25% (+5)
Liberals          16% (-3)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-1)

Regina was CPC 49%, NDP 27%, LPC 19%, PPC 4%, Greens 2%

Division 7

Conservatives 56% (-12)
NDP               22% (+3)
PPC                13% (+9)
Liberals           6% (+1)
Greens            1% (-1)

Division 8

Conservatives 72% (-8)
NDP               12% (+1)
PPC                7% (+4)
Liberals           5% (+1)
Greens           1% (-1)

Division 9

Conservatives 66% (-7)
NDP               13% (-1)
PPC                10% (+8)
Liberals           7% (-1)
Greens           2% (-1)

Division 10

Conservatives 70% (-1)
NDP               14% (-)
Liberals           7% (-3)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens            1% (-2)

Division 11

Conservatives 52% (-4)
NDP               31% (+3)
Liberals          10% (-1)
PPC                 6% (+4)
Greens            1% (-2)

Saskatoon was CPC 48% NDP 35% LPC 11% PPC 5% GPC 1%

Division 12

Conservatives 69% (-7)
NDP               15% (+1)
PPC                7% (+5)
Liberals           5% (-)
Greens            1% (-1)

Division 13

Conservatives 72% (-9)
NDP               11% (+1)
PPC                6% (+4)
Liberals           4% (-1)
Greens            1% (-1)

Division 14

Conservatives 71% (-8)
NPD               11% (-)
PPC                9% (+7)
Liberals          6% (-1)
Greens           1% (-1)

Division 15

Conservatives 64% (-3)
NDP               16% (-2)
Liberals          11% (+1)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens            1% (-1)

Division 16

Conservatives 66% (-3)
NDP               15% (-)
Liberals          10% (-2)
PPC                6% (+4)
Greens           1% (-1)

Division 17

Conservatives 67% (-9)
NDP               12% (-1)
Liberals           7% (-1)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens            1% (-)

Division 18

Liberals           41% (+6)
Conservatives  28% (+5)
NDP                25% (-15)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens             1% (-1)

This one pretty straightforward as everywhere that Aboriginals are majority went Liberals with Tories in teens or single digits.  Everywhere that was predominately white which is largely at southern end went solidly Conservative like rest of Saskatchewan.
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adma
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« Reply #1054 on: September 12, 2022, 05:49:53 PM »

Muskoka was much more interesting in the provincial election due to the Green strength there.


Though "boring-interesting", in the way things reduced out of strategic necessity to strict binaries tend to be.  (Wonder how the Greens would have done were there a Liberal candidate--perhaps still 2nd place, though a more "relaxed" kind of 2nd)
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adma
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« Reply #1055 on: September 12, 2022, 05:53:26 PM »

There were probably more Conservative 2019-NDP 2021 voters although this group was overwhelmingly in Alberta.  Probably people who voted Conservative by habit, but unpopularity of UCP and fact now supporting NDP provincially pushed them over to NDP federally.

Another unspoken factor (besides PPC and other dissident-right forces like Maverick) behind the CPC fall in Alberta: Erin O'Toole being their first non-Western leader (i.e. a token "not one of us" factor)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1056 on: September 12, 2022, 11:37:19 PM »

There were probably more Conservative 2019-NDP 2021 voters although this group was overwhelmingly in Alberta.  Probably people who voted Conservative by habit, but unpopularity of UCP and fact now supporting NDP provincially pushed them over to NDP federally.

Another unspoken factor (besides PPC and other dissident-right forces like Maverick) behind the CPC fall in Alberta: Erin O'Toole being their first non-Western leader (i.e. a token "not one of us" factor)

That and also Kenney's endorsement of O'Toole and fact Kenney's approval was rock bottom likely hurt party.  AB NDP had around a 15 point lead in polls then so probably some spillover from that.  That has largely disappeared since but does seem provincial politics can have some impact just as Ford's unpopularity in 2019 hurt federal Tories.  I suspect vast majority of Conservative 2019-NDP 2021 in Alberta were types who voted NDP provincially in both 2015 and 2019. 

O'Toole having no Alberta connection though probably hurt him somewhat on right but mostly amongst Maverick Party voters as none of the leaders had Alberta connection.  On September 20, 2021, covid was largely under control in Central Canada so not a major issue but in Alberta hospitals near breaking point and it seemed in Alberta province split between those who wanted tougher restrictions and those that wanted none and former who voted Conservative in 2019 likely defected to NDP in 2021 while those who wanted none more likely to go to PPC.

Anyways going to start working on Quebec.  Will give both for 17 Regions and the RCMs in each.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1057 on: September 13, 2022, 12:49:28 AM »
« Edited: September 13, 2022, 07:15:25 PM by mileslunn »

Here are the 17 Regions of Quebec, RCMs will be in separate post after

Bas-Saint Laurent

BQ                 47% (+5)
Liberals          22% (-1)
Conservatives 21% (+5)
NDP               5% (-11)
PPC                2% (+1)
Greens           0% (-2)

Saguenay-Lac Saint Jean

BQ                 43% (+4)
Conservatives 31% (+5)
Liberals          19% (-1)
NDP               4% (-8)
Greens           1% (-1)
PPC                0% (-1)

Capitale National

Conservatives 37% (+6)
BQ                 27% (-1)
Liberals          24% (-2)
NDP               7% (-1)
Greens           2% (-2)
PPC                2% (-)

Mauricie

Liberals          32% (+3)
BQ                 29% (-1)
Conservatives 22% (+3)
NDP               13% (-4)
Greens           1% (-3)
PPC                1% (-)

Estrie

Liberals           34% (-)
BQ                  33% (+1)
Conservatives  18% (+3)
NDP                 8% (-4)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens             2% (-3)

Ile de Montreal

Liberals            49% (-)
NDP                 17% (+1)
BQ                   17% (-1)
Conservatives    11% (+1)
PPC                  3% (+2)
Greens              2% (-4)

Conservatives flipped Hampstead from Liberals (its largely Jewish so kind of like Thornhill) while BQ won Montreal Est both times.  All others went Liberal

Outaouis

Liberals            47% (-3)
BQ                   21% (+1)
Conservatives   14% (+2)
NDP                 10% (-1)
PPC                  4% (+3)
Greens             2% (-4)

Abitibi-Temiscamingue

BQ                   48% (+4)
Liberals            25% (-1)
Conservatives   13% (-3)
NDP                 6% (-3)
PPC                  4% (+3)
Greens             2% (-1)

Cote Nord

BQ                  53% (-1)
Conservatives  22% (+3)
Liberals           19% (-)
NDP                4% (-)
Greens            0% (-3)
PPC                 0% (-1)

Nord du Quebec

BQ                  30% (+1)
NDP                24% (+1)
Liberals           23% (-5)
Conservatives  14% (+1)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens            2% (-3)

Gaspesie-Ile de la Madeleine

Liberals           44% (+2)
BQ                  41% (-)
Conservatives   8% (-)
NDP                 4% (-1)
PPC                  2% (+1)
Greens             0% (-3)

Ironically PQ won this in 2018 provincial so weird how went Liberal federally but PQ provincially.

Chaudiere-Appalaches

Conservatives   52% (+6)
BQ                   20% (-2)
Liberals             14% (-1)
PPC                  6% (-3)
NDP                  5% (-)
Greens              1% (-2)

Laval

Liberals           48% (+1)
BQ                  25% (-2)
Conservatives  14% (+2)
NDP                 8% (-)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens             1% (-3)

Lanaudiere

BQ                 49% (-5)
Liberals           24% (-)
Conservatives  10% (+2)
NDP                9% (-)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens            1% (-3)

Laurentides

BQ                 46% (-)
Liberals           28% (-3)
Conservatives  12% (+3)
NDP                7% (-)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens            2% (-3)

Monteregie

BQ                 42% (+1)
Liberals          34% (-)
Conservatives 11% (+1)
NDP               9% (-1)
PPC                2% (+1)
Greens           1% (-5)

Centre du Quebec

BQ                 37% (-1)
Conservatives 34% (+3)
Liberals          16% (-)
NDP                7% (-2)
PPC                2% (+1)
Greens            0% (-4)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1058 on: September 13, 2022, 05:59:01 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2022, 02:26:57 PM by mileslunn »

Here is Quebec by RCMs which will be much longer

Region: Bas-Saint Laurent

Kamouraska

Conservatives 48% (+7)
BQ                 29% (-5)
Liberals          17% (+3)
NDP                4% (-4)
Greens            0% (-2)
PPC                0% (-1)

BQ wins Notre Dame du Portage, Sainte Andre de Kamouraska and Saint Bruno de Kamouraska Tory pickup from BQ, everything else went Conservative both times

La Matapedia

BQ                 67% (+5)
Liberals          16% (-10)
Conservatives 9% (+2)
PPC                4% (+3)
NDP                2% (-)
Greens           0% (-1)

All BQ both times

La Mitis

BQ                 62% (+8)
Liberals           19% (-10
Conservatives  10% (+1)
NDP                4% (-1)
PPC                2% (+1)
Greens            0% (-2)

Metis sur Mer BQ pickup from Liberals, everything else BQ hold

Les Basques

BQ                 46% (+7)
Liberals           26% (+5)
Conservatives  17% (+3)
NDP                4% (-19)
PPC                 1% (-)
Greens            0% (-2)

All BQ holds

La Matanie

BQ                 59% (+10)
Liberals          24% (-17)
Conservatives 8%   (+2)
NDP               3% (+1)
PPC                3% (+3)
Greens           0% (-1)

All BQ holds

Rimouski-Neigette

BQ                 50% (+12)
Liberals          24% (+2)
Conservatives 11% (+5)
NDP                7% (-24)
PPC                2% (+2)
Greens           0% (-2)

Saint Valerien BQ flip from NDP, rest BQ holds

Riviere du Loup

Conservatives 42% (+11)
BQ                 31% (-9)
Liberals          20% (+2)
NDP               4% (-4)
Greens           0% (-2)
PPC                0% (-1)

BQ won Cacouna, Notre Dame du Portage, Tories won both times Saint Francois Xavier de Viger and Saint Arsene.  All others were BQ 2019, Conservative 2021

Temiscouata

BQ                 48% (+12)
Liberals          27% (+5)
Conservatives 17% (+2)
NDP                3% (-22)
PPC                 2% (+1)
Greens            0% (-2)

Saint Eusebe BQ gain from NDP, everything else BQ hold

Region: Saguenay-Lac Saint Jean

Le Fjord du Saguenay

BQ                 38% (+4)
Conservatives 37% (+8)
Liberals          18% (+4)
NDP               5% (-14)
Greens           1% (-1)
PPC                0% (-1)

Conservative holds were Begin, Ferland et Boileau, Saint Felix d'Otis, Conservative pickup from BQ Saint Honore, rest went BQ

Lac Saint Jean Est

BQ                 54% (+7)
Conservatives 24% (-1)
Liberals          17% (-2)
NDP               4% (-2)
Greens           2% (-)
PPC                0% (-1)

BQ sweep

Le Domaine du Roy

BQ                 47% (+4)
Conservatives 27% (+5)
Liberals          21% (-6)
NDP               3% (-2)
Greens           2% (-)
PPC               0% (-1)

BQ sweep

Maria-Chapedeleine

BQ                 48% (+11)
Conservatives 28% (+7)
Liberals          20% (-16)
NDP               3% (-1)
Greens           1% (-)
PPC                0% (-1)

BQ pickups from Liberals: Dolbeau-Mistassini everything else BQ both times

Saguenay

BQ                  38% (+3)
Conservatives  35% (+7)
Liberals           20% (+3)
NDP                 5% (-11)
Greens             1% (-2)
PPC                 1% (-)

Region Capitale Nationale

Charlevoix Est

BQ                  51% (-1)
Liberals           23% (+1)
Conservatives  17% (-3)
NDP                3% (-)
PPC                 2% (+1)
Greens            1% (-1)

All went BQ

Charlevoix

BQ                  52% (+3)
Liberals           22% (-3)
Conservatives  18% (-)
NDP                3% (-1)
PPC                 2% (+1)
Greens            1% (-2)

All went BQ

La Cote de Beaupre

Conservatives  35% (+1)
BQ                  35% (+4)
Liberals           20% (-1)
NDP                5% (-1)
PPC                 2% (-)
Greens            2% (-1)

BQ wins Beaupre, Saint Ferroul les Nieges, and Saint Joachin, Conservatives won Chateau Richer, Boischatel, and L'Ange Gardien, BQ flipped Sainte Anne de Beaupre from Tories and Sainte Tite des Caps

Ile d'Orleans

BQ                 36% (+1)            
Conservatives 36% (+5)
Liberals          20% (-)
NDP                4% (-2)
PPC                2% (-1)
Greens            1% (-1)

Conservatives won Saint Famile de I'le d'Orleans, BQ won Saint Francois de l'Ile d'Orleans, Saint Jean I'le d'Orleans, Saint Pierre Ile d'Orleans, and Sainte Petronille, Conservative gain from BQ Saint Laurent de I'le d'Orleans

La Jacques Cartier

Conservatives 51% (+8)
BQ                 23% (-)
Liberals          15% (-4)
NDP               6% (-1)
PPC                3% (-)
Greens           0% (-4)

Conservatives picked up Lac Delage from BQ, everything Conservative both times

Portneuf

Conservatives 56% (+8)
BQ                 23% (-1)
Liberals          13% (-4)
NDP               4% (-1)
PPC                2% (-1)
Greens           0% (-3)

All went Conservative

Quebec City Agglomeration

Conservatives  35% (+6)
BQ                  26% (-2)
Liberals           26% (-2)
NDP                8% (-1)
Greens            2% (-2)
PPC                 1% (-1)

All three municipalities went Conservative.  Liberals & BQ likely would have won some of the municipalities pre-amalgamation from 20 years ago as Tories dominated northern parts, BQ Eastern part, Liberals core and Western part.

Region: Mauricie

Les Chenaux

Liberals          37% (+2)
BQ                 30% (-4)
Conservatives 23% (+3)
NDP               6% (-)
Greens            1% (-2)
PPC                0% (-2)

BQ won Batiscan, Liberals picked up Champlain from BQ, BQ picked up Saint Luc de Vicennes, Liberals win everything else.

Maskinoge

NDP               45% (-)
BQ                 26% (-1)
Liberals          15% (+1)
Conservatives 11% (-)
PPC                2% (+1)
Greens            1% (-)

Only NDP win in Quebec and here mostly Ruth Ellen Brosseau personal votes, probably would be in single digits with generic candidate.  Liberals and BQ much higher, Tories probably only slightly.

Saint Matheiu du Parc BQ gain from NDP, everything else NDP hold.

Mekinac

Liberals           40% (+3)
BQ                  32% (-3)
Conservatives  21% (+2)
NDP                3% (-1)
Greens            1% (-3)
PPC                 0% (-2)

BQ won Notre Dame de Montauban, Lac aux Sables Liberals flip Sainte Thecle from BQ, Herouxville (this is shock if you remember negative attention it got on anti-immigrant town rules), rest went Liberal

La Tuque

Liberals          40% (+3)
BQ                 35% (-4)
Conservatives  17% (+2)
NDP                4% (-)
Greens            1% (-2)
PPC                 0% (-1)

Shawnigan

Liberals           49% (+4)
BQ                  28% (-5)
Conservatives  13% (+1)
NDP                 5% (-)
Greens             1% (-2)
PPC                 0% (-2)

Trois Rivieres

BQ                 30% (+1)
Conservatives  28% (+4)
Liberals          28% (+2)
NDP               10% (-7)
PPC                2% (+1)
Greens           1% (-1)

Region: Estrie

Coaticook

Liberals          44% (+1)
BQ                 25% (-2)
Conservatives 18% (+2)
NDP               5% (-2)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens            3% (-2)

Liberal sweep

Le Granit

Conservatives 47% (+5)
BQ                 24% (-5)
Liberals           16% (-2)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens            1% (-2)

Stratford, Val-Racine Conservative pick up from BQ, everything else Conservative holds

Le Haut Saint Francois

BQ                 33% (-2)
Liberals          32% (-1)
Conservatives 20% (-)
NDP               6% (-)
PPC                5% (+4)
Greens           3% (-2)

Liberals won Cookshire Est, Newport, Saint Isidore de Clifton,  BQ East Angus, Ascot Corner, Dudswell, Weedon, Westbury,

Le Val Saint Francois

BQ                 33% (-3)
Conservatives 28% (+5)
Liberals          25% (-2)
NDP               6% (-1)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens            1% (-5)

Richmond, Cleveland conservative pick up from Liberals, Valcourt, Racine BQ pick up from Liberals, Windsor Conservative pick up from BQ, Saint Claude, Saint Francois Xavier de Brompton Conservative pick up from BQ, Bonsecoeurs, Saint Denis de Brompton, Sainte Anne de Rochelle, Stoke BQ, Val Joli Conservative hold

Les Sources

Conservatives 43% (+4)
BQ                 27% (-6)
Liberals          18% (+1)
PPC                5% (+4)
NDP                4% (-1)
Greens            0% (-5)

Saint Camille a Conservative pick up from BQ, everything else Conservative hold

Memphremagog

Liberals          36% (-2)
BQ                 35% (-)
Conservatives 16% (+4)
NDP                6% (-2)
PPC                3% (+2)
Greens            2% (-3)

BQ won Magog, Eastman, Stukely Sud Liberals won Stanstead, Austin, Hatley, Ogden, Sainte Etienne de Bolton, Potton, Ayer's Cliff, North Hatley, BQ pick up from Liberals Bolton Est, Sainte Catherine de Hatley, Orford

Brome-Missiquoi

Liberals          37% (-3)
BQ                 32% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (+5)
PPC                3% (+2)
Greens            3% (-3)

BQ won Dunham, Farnham, Brigham, East Farnham, Notre Dame de Stanbridge, Stanbridge Station, Saint Ignace de Stanbridge, Sainte Sabine rest goes Liberal

Le Haut Yamaska

BQ                 42% (+4)
Liberals          35% (-4)
Conservatives 12% (-)
NDP                5% (-1)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens            2% (-3)

Liberals won Waterloo, BQ won Roxton Pond, Saint Alphonse de Granby, Saint Joachin de Shefford, Sainte Cecile de Mliton, while BQ flipped Granby from Liberals

Sherbrooke

Liberals           37% (+6)
BQ                  30% (+2)
Conservatives  14% (+3)
NDP                12% (-11)
Greens            3% (-2)
PPC                 3% (+3)

Region: Outaouis

La Vallee de la Gatineau

Liberals           33% (-6)
Conservatives  28% (+8)
BQ                  26% (-4)
NDP                6% (-)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens            2% (-2)

Liberals won: Gracefield, Blue Sea, Cayamant, Denholm, Lac Sainte Marie, Sainte Therese de Gatineau (gain from BQ), Low

Conservatives won: Deleage (gain from BQ), Kazabazua (gain from LPC), Aumond (gain from BQ)

BQ won: Bouchette, Grand Remous, Messines

Les Collines de l'Outaouis

Liberals            43% (-5)
BQ                   19% (+2)
Conservatives   17% (+3)
NDP                 12% (+1)
PPC                  5% (+4)
Greens             3% (-5)

Liberal sweep

Papineau

BQ                 39% (-1)
Liberals          38% (+2)
Conservatives 12% (-)
NDP               5% (-1)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           0% (-4)

Liberals won Boileau, Bowman, Mayo, Montebello (gain from BQ), Notre Dame de la Salette (gain from BQ), Papineauville (gain from BQ), Plaisance (gain from BQ), Thurso, Val des Bois

BQ won Cheneville, Duhamel, Lac des Plages, Lac Simon, Lochaber Partie Ouest, Ripon, Saint Andre-Avellin, Sainte Emile de Suffolk

Pontiac

Conservatives: 42% (+1)
Liberals           31% (-8)
NDP                10% (+2)
PPC                 9% (+7)
BQ                  5% (+1)
Greens            2% (-2)

Conservative holds: Alleyn et Cawood, Bristol, Bryson, Campbell's Bay, Clarendon, Litchfield, Rapides des Joachims, Shawville, Portage du Fort

Conservative pick ups from Liberals: L'Ile du Grand Calumet, L'Isles aux Amettes, Otter Lake, Thorne

Liberal holds: Mansfield et Pontefract, Sheenboro, Waltham, Chichester, Fort Coulogne

Gatineau

Liberals           51% (-2)
BQ                  20% (+2)
Conservatives  11% (+1)
NDP                11% (-1)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens            2% (-3)

Region: Abitibi-Temiscamingue

Abitibi

BQ                 50% (+4)
Liberals          23% (-1)
Conservatives 13% (-5)
NDP                5% (-3)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens           2% (-2)

All went BQ

Abitibi Ouest

BQ                  54%
Liberals           23% (+2)
Conservatives  12% (-6)
PPC                 4% (+3)
NDP                4% (-3)
Greens            1% (-3)

All went BQ as well

La Vallee de l'Or

BQ                 43% (+2)
Liberals          27% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
NDP               5% (-3)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-1)

Melartic, Rivere-Heva went Independent, Val d'Or went BQ

Temiscamingue

BQ                 44% (+8)
Liberals          25% (-3)
Conservatives 13% (-1)
NDP               9% (-9)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           1% (-2)

Notre Dame du Nord BQ pick up from NDP, everything else BQ hold

Rouyn-Noranda

BQ                  52% (-5)
Liberals           25% (-1)
Conservatives  10% (-3)
NDP                 7% (-3)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens            2% (-2)

Regions: Cote Nord

BQ                  51% (-12)
Conservatives  35% (+13)
Liberals           6% (-2)
NDP                4% (+1)
PPC                0% (-2)
Greens            0% (-3)

All BQ

La Sept Rivieres

BQ                 55% (-1)
Liberals          22% (+3)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
NDP               3% (+1)
PPC                0% (-1)
Greens           0% (-3)

All went BQ

Manicouagan

BQ                   56% (+5)
Conservatives   21% (-6)
Liberals            16% (-)
NDP                 4% (+1)
Greens             0% (-2)
PPC                  0% (-1)

Pessamit went Liberal, everything else BQ

Nord du Quebec, see Regions but for municipalities Chibougamau, Chapais, Lebel sur Quevillon, Matagami went  independent gain from BQ.  NDP won the predominately aboriginal communities in southern half, but Liberals took all those in Northern half otherwise ones under Cree territory

Region: Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine

Avignon

BQ                   51% (+12)
Liberals            28% (-11)
Conservatives   9% (-)
NDP                 8% (+1)
PPC                  3% (+2)
Greens             0% (-4)

Escuminac, Saint Alexis de Matapeida BQ pick up for Liberals, Saint Andre de Restigouche, Ruisseau-Ferguson.  Riviere Nouvelle Liberal hold, while Listujuj went NDP.  Everything else BQ hold.

Bonaventure

Liberals           43% (-)
BQ                  37% (+2)
Conservatives  12% (+1)
NDP                5% (-1)
PPC                 2% (+1)
Greens            0% (-4)

New Richmond BQ pickup from Liberals, Paspebiac, Caplan BQ hold rest Liberal holds.  Funnily enough this like others in Gaspe peninsula went PQ provincially so guessing probably local candidate big reason

La Rocher Perce

Liberals          53% (+6)
BQ                 38% (-4)
Conservatives 6% (-)
NDP               2% (-1)
PPC                1% (+1)
Greens            0% (-2)

Port Daniel-Gascons went BQ, Sainte Therese de Gaspe Liberal pick up from BQ, rest went BQ

La Cote de Gaspesie

BQ                 44% (-)
Liberals          42% (+5)  
Conservatives 8% (+1)
NDP               5% (-)
PPC                1% (-)
Greens            0% (-4)

Despite closeness all went BQ as most live in Gaspe

La Haute Gaspesie

BQ                 47% (-2)
Liberals          37% (+2)
Conservatives 9% (+1)
NDP               3% (-1)
PPC                2% (+1)
Greens           0% (-3)

All went BQ

Grosse Ile

Liberals          65% (+13)
Conservatives 24% (-10)
PPC                7% (+1)
NDP               2% (-3)
BQ                 1% (-)
Greens           0% (-6)

Iles de la Madeleine

Liberals          55% (+6)
BQ                 34% (-5)
Conservatives 5% (-)
NDP               3% (-1)
PPC               1% (+1)
Greens           0% (-2)

Region: Chaudiere-Appalaches

Beauce Centre

Conservatives 49% (+8)
PPC                19% (-10)
BQ                 14% (+1)
Liberals           12% (+2)
NDP               3% (-)
Greens            1% (-1)

Conservatives won all in both elections

Beauce-Sartigan

Conservatives 43% (+10)
PPC                21% (-9)
BQ                 17% (+3)
Liberals          13% (-)
NDP               3% (-)
Greens           1% (-1)

PPC won Saint Rene in 2019 PPC but not 2021 won Saint Georges, Saint Come-Liniere, Saint Philibert (PPC almost won this in 2021 too, only lost by 3 votes), everything else went Conservative both times.

Bellechasse

Conservatives 63% (+1)
BQ                 19% (+1)
Liberals          11% (-1)
NDP               3% (-)
Greens           1% (-1)
PPC               0% (-2)

All went Conservative

La Nouvelle Beauce

Conservatives 57% (+9)
BQ                 14% (-)
Liberals          11% (-)
PPC                11% (-8)
NDP               4% (-)
Greens           1% (-2)

Les Appalaches

Conservatives  59% (+9)
BQ                  20% (-6)
Liberals           13% (-2)
PPC                4% (+2)
NDP                3% (-1)
Greens            1% (-1)

Beauce-Gartby Conservative gain from BQ, all others Conservative holds

Les Etchemins

Conservatives 55% (+6)
BQ                 17% (-4)
Liberals          12% (+1)
PPC                9% (-5)
NDP               3% (+1)
Greens           1% (-1)

Saint Prosper Conservative gain from BQ (BQ won in 2019 on splits), Saint Zacharie Conservative gain from PPC, all the rest Conservative holds.

L'Islet

Conservatives 57% (+7)
BQ                 23% (-4)
Liberals          15% (-)
NDP               2% (-3)
PPC                0% (-1)
Greens           0% (-2)

Sainte Louise Conservative pick up from BQ, everything else Conservative hold.

Lotbiniere

Conservatives 60% (+5)
BQ                 17% (-4)
Liberals          12% (-1)
NDP               6% (+1)
PPC                3% (-)
Greens            1% (-2)

Saint Antoine de Tilly is Conservative pick up from BQ, all others conservative holds

Montmagny

Conservatives 58% (+7)
BQ                 20% (-3)
Liberals           16% (-1)
NDP                3% (-3)
PPC                 0% (-1)
Greens           0% (-2)

All Conservative holds

Levis

Conservatives 45% (+4)
BQ                 25% (-2)
Liberals          18% (-1)
NDP               7% (-)
Greens           2% (-1)
PPC               1% (-2)

Region: Lanaudiere

D'Autray

BQ                  41% (-3)
NDP                28% (-3)
Liberals           15% (-2)
Conservatives  10% (+1)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens            1% (-1)

Berthierville BQ pick up from NDP, Saint Cuthbert, Sainte Genevieve de Berthier, Saint Barthlemy went NDP, rest BQ holds

Joliette

BQ                 56% (-4)
Liberals          22% (+1)
Conservatives 10% (+1)
NDP               6% (+1)
PPC                3% (+2)
Greens           2% (-2)

All went BQ

L'Assomption

BQ                 52% (-2)
Liberals          27% (-)
Conservatives 9% (+1)
NDP               7% (-)
Greens           0% (-4)
PPC                0% (-1)

All went BQ

Les Moulins

BQ                 44% (-8)
Liberals          28% (-)
Conservatives 11% (+3)
NDP                7% (-1)
PPC                3% (+2)
Greens           2% (-2)

Both municipalities went BQ

Matawanie

BQ                 52% (-3)
Liberals          23% (+1)
Conservatives 9% (-)
NDP               8% (-)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-2)

All went BQ

Montcalm

BQ                 54% (-6)
Liberals          18% (-)
Conservatives 12% (+2)
NDP               6% (+1)
PPC               5% (+4)
Greens           3% (-1)

Region: Laurentides

Antoine Labelle

BQ                 57% (+8)
Liberals          21% (-9)
Conservatives 11% (+2)
NDP               4% (-3)
PPC                3% (+3)
Greens           2% (-1)

All BQ holds

Argenteuil

BQ                 37% (-2)
Liberals          35% (+1)
Conservatives 14% (+1)
PPC                7% (+5)
NDP                6% (-1)
Greens            0% (-5)

Liberals won Grenville sur le Rouge, Harrington, Wentworth, rest went BQ

Deux Montagnes

BQ                 43% (-1)
Liberals          31% (-)
Conservatives 11% (+2)
NDP                8% (-1)
PPC                3% (+1)
Greens            2% (-4)

Liberals won Deux Montagnes all else went BQ

La Riviere du Nord

BQ                 52% (-)
Liberals          22% (-)
Conservatives 12% (-)
NDP                7% (-)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens            0% (-6)

All went BQ

Les Laurentides

BQ                 49% (+3)
Liberals          25% (-8)
Conservatives 10% (+3)
NDP                7% (+1)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens            3% (-3)

Liberals won Arundel rest went BQ

Les Pays d'en Haut

BQ                   44% (-)
Liberals            30% (-6)
Conservatives   11% (+4)
NDP                  7% (+1)
PPC                   4% (+3)
Greens              2% (-4)

Morin Heights went Liberal, rest BQ

Mirabel

BQ                  47% (-4)
Liberals           23% (-2)
Conservatives  14% (+5)
NDP                 9% (+1)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens             2% (-3)

Therese de Blainville

BQ                 41% (-1)
Liberals          35% (-1)
Conservatives 11% (+2)
NDP                7% (-1)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens            2% (-3)

Lorraine and Rosemere went Liberal, rest BQ
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,800
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« Reply #1059 on: September 15, 2022, 04:21:31 PM »

Quebec continued

Region: Monteregie

Acton

BQ                 49% (+5)
Liberals          20% (+2)
Conservatives 15% (-)
NDP               10% (-8)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens            0% (-4)

BQ sweep

La Vallee du Richelieu

BQ                 52% (+2)
Liberals          25% (-)
Conservatives 9% (+3)
NDP               9% (-4)
PPC                2% (+1)
Greens            2% (-3)

BQ sweep

Le Haut Richelieu

BQ                 46% (+1)
Liberals          28% (-3)
Conservatives 13% (+2)
NDP                7% (-1)
Greens            2% (-3)
PPC                0% (-1)

Liberals gain Saint Georges de Clarenceville from BQ, rest went BQ

Les Maskoutains

BQ                 47% (+6)
Liberals          23% (+1)
Conservatives 13% (-1)
NDP               12% (-7)
PPC                3% (+1)
Greens            0% (-4)

BQ sweep

Marguerite D'Youville

BQ                 57% (+2)
Liberals          24% (-1)
Conservatives 9% (-)
NDP               7% (-)
PPC                2% (+1)
Greens           0% (-5)

All went BQ

Pierre de Saurel

BQ                 59% (-1)
Liberals          18% (-)
Conservatives 13% (-1)
NDP                5% (-)
PPC                 2% (+2)
Greens            1% (-2)

BQ Sweep

Rouville

BQ                 50% (-)
Liberals          24% (-)
Conservatives 12% (+2)
NDP                7% (-3)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens            2% (-2)

BQ sweep

Beauharnois-Salaberry

BQ                 54% (+2)
Liberals          25% (-2)
Conservatives 9% (-)
NDP               6% (-1)
PPC                3% (+2)
Greens           0% (-3)

BQ sweep

Le Haut Saint Laurent

BQ                 35% (-)
Liberals          32% (-4)
Conservatives 17% (+4)
NDP               9% (-)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           0% (-4)

BQ won Franklin, Saint Anicet, Saint Chrysostome, and Sainte Barbe Liberals won Huntingdon, Elgin, Hinchinbrooke, Howick, Tres Saint Sacrement and Havelock, BQ gain from Liberals Ormstown and Akwasasne

Les Jardins de Napierville

BQ                  41% (-1)
Liberals           30% (-1)
Conservatives  15% (+1)
NDP                 6% (-1)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens            2% (-2)

Liberals won Hemmingford, BQ won rest

Roussillon

BQ                  40% (+1)
Liberals           37% (-2)
Conservatives  10% (+1)
NDP                 8% (-)
PPC                  3% (+2)
Greens            2% (-2)

Liberals won Candiac, Chateauguay, and La Prairie,

BQ won Delson, Lery, Mercier, Saint Constant, Sainte Catherine, Saint Philippe, Saint Mathieu, and Saint Isiodore

Vaudreuil-Soulanges

Liberals             42% (-2)
BQ                    27% (-2)
Conservatives    16% (+5)
NDP                  10% (-)
Greens               2% (-3)
PPC                    1% (-)

BQ won Coteau du Lac, Les Cedres, Les Coteaux, Riviere Beaudette, Saint Clet, Saint Polycarpe, Saint Telesphore, Saint Zotique, Saint Justine de Newton, Tres Saint Redempteur, and Pointe des Cascades Liberals gain Sainte Marthe and Point Fortune from BQ, all the rest went Liberal

Agglomeration of Longueuil

Liberals             42% (+1)
BQ                    35% (+1)
NDP                  9% (-)
Conservatives    9% (+!)
PPC                   2% (+1)
Greens              1% (-6)

BQ won Boucherville, Longueuil Liberal gain from BQ, rest Liberal holds.

Region: Centre du Quebec

Arthabaska

Conservatives 56% (+4)
BQ                 23% (-4)
Liberals          12% (-)
NDP               4% (-)
PPC               3% (+2)
Greens           0% (-5)

Conservative sweep

Becancour

BQ                 46% (-3)
Conservatives 24% (+3)
Liberals          16% (-3)
NDP                6% (-)
PPC                3% (+1)
Greens            2% (-1)

BQ sweep

Drummond

BQ                  47% (+2)
Liberals           19% (+1)
Conservatives  18% (+1)
NDP                11% (-5)
Greens             0% (-3)
PPC                  0% (-1)

BQ Sweep

L'Erable

Conservatives 60% (+6)
BQ                 17% (-5)
Liberals          13% (-2)
NDP               3% (-2)
PPC                3% (+1)
Greens           1% (-2)

Conservative sweep

Nicolet-Yamaska

BQ                  53% (-3)
Conservatives  18% (+2)
Liberals           16% (-2)
NDP                 5% (-1)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens            2% (-1)

BQ Sweep

So now done all provinces, will use spreadsheets to do territories and then work on maps.  Plan to do first for counties and maybe if have time municipalities but latter may be not.  Will do for counties one on winner another on right vs. left (CPC + PPC vs. LPC + NDP + GPC + BQ).

Quebec looks like Liberals are now more your urban party while suburbs more mixed while rural bad for them.  Tories strong in Quebec City region but outside that Saguenay-Lac Saint Jean only other area and rural Anglophone parts of Pontiac with any strength.  Mind you shift between Tory to BQ once leaving Quebec City region makes me wonder how many strategic voters you had who wanted to defeat Liberals and went for whichever of two parties more likely to.  It seems BQ unlike 90s probably appeals more to centre-right voters but also some centre-left so putting them on ideological spectrum tough.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1060 on: September 15, 2022, 05:39:36 PM »

Northwest Territories

Decho Region

Liberals             42% (-5)
NDP                  37% (+11)
Conservatives    12% (-8)
Independent      6%   (+6)
Greens              2%   (-4)
PPC                   0%  (-1)

NDP won Fort Liard, while tied in Wrigley at 5 votes each, both pick ups from Liberals

Inuvik Region

Liberals           46% (-4)
NDP                28% (+3)
Conservatives  16% (-2)
Independent    6%   (+6)
Greens            2%   (-3)
PPC                 0%   (-1)

NDP won Sachs Harbour (gain from Liberals), all else went Liberal

North Slave Region

NDP               36% (+15)
Liberals          35% (-1)
Conservatives 14% (-13)
Independent   12% (+12)
Greens           2%   (-9)
PPC                0%   (-2)

Liberals won Detah, Lutselk'e, and Whati.  In 2019 was Liberal sweep although Conservatives came close in Yellowknife

Sahtu Region

Liberals          49% (-3)
NDP               23% (+3)
Conservatives 15% (-2)
Independent   9%   (+9)
Greens           2%  (-5)
PPC                0%  (-3)

NDP won Norman Wells, everything else Liberal.  Norman Wells also only community where First Nations not majority.  In 2019 went Liberal with Conservatives only two votes behind

South Slave Lake Region

Liberals          37% (-4)
NDP               27% (+2)
Independent   20% (+20)
Conservatives 13% (-15)
Greens            3%  (-2)
PPC                0%   (-1)

Liberal sweep here although Independent candidate almost won Hay River so probably from there.  In 2019 Conservatives won Hay River, everything else Liberal.  Fort Smith was closest to NDP win being only 4 votes off.

Overall looks like most of the decline for Conservatives went to Independent or NDP.  Big reason is Conservative candidate not only didn't live in riding but had never even visited NWT in her life and in Northern ridings that is a huge issue.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1061 on: September 15, 2022, 06:53:44 PM »

Nunavut

Kitikmeot Region

NDP               42% (+20)
Liberals          33% (-)
Conservatives 25% (-16)
Greens           0%  (-3)

NDP won all communities although Kugluktuk was almost a perfect three way split.  In 2019 Liberals won Cambridge Bay and Taloyoak, Conservatives won Gjoa Haven, Kugaaruk, and Kugluktuk.  I believe former Harper cabinet minister Leona Aglukkaq was from this region this why Tories did well here in 2019 not 2021.

Kivalliq Region

NDP               47% (-2)
Liberals          27% (+4)
Conservatives 25% (-)
Greens           0%  (+1)

NDP sweep both times

Qikiqtaaluk Region

NDP               49% (+5)
Liberals          39%  (+7)
Conservatives 11%  (-11)
Greens           0%   (-2)

Liberals won Cape Dorset (gain from NDP), Kimmirut (gain from NDP), Pangnirtung (gain from NDP), Sanikluaq.  NDP gains from Liberals Arctic Bay and Resolute Bay

Being size of Mexico, often connection to local community as opposed to partisan label seems to play bigger role here.  One pattern though is Conservatives seem to do better on mainland while weaker on Baffin Island.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1062 on: September 15, 2022, 07:23:32 PM »

Yukon is only province or territory without county equivalents, it is just one.  So below are list of winners for each election by municipality

Liberals: Carmacks (gain from Conservatives), Haines Junction, Teslin (gain from Conservatives), Whitehorse, unincorporated parts (gain from Conservatives)

NDP: Dawson, Mayo (gain from Liberals)

Conservatives: Faro, Watson Lake

It was by and large Liberals in Whitehorse, Tories rest of southern part of territory, NDP in northern part.  Overall right wing vote actually went up in 2021 as 2019 Conservative candidate ran as independent since he refused to get vaccinated (O'Toole probably dumped him as running against Yukon PHO so bad look).
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adma
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« Reply #1063 on: September 16, 2022, 04:32:20 AM »

La Vallee de l'Or

BQ                 43% (+2)
Liberals          27% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
NDP               5% (-3)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-1)

Melartic, Rivere-Heva went Independent, Val d'Or went BQ

Nord du Quebec, see Regions but for municipalities Chibougamau, Chapais, Lebel sur Quevillon, Matagami went  independent gain from BQ.  NDP won the predominately aboriginal communities in southern half, but Liberals took all those in Northern half otherwise ones under Cree territory


What's this "going Independent" business?  There wasn't an poll-winning Independent candidate...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1064 on: September 16, 2022, 12:01:37 PM »

La Vallee de l'Or

BQ                 43% (+2)
Liberals          27% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
NDP               5% (-3)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-1)

Melartic, Rivere-Heva went Independent, Val d'Or went BQ

Nord du Quebec, see Regions but for municipalities Chibougamau, Chapais, Lebel sur Quevillon, Matagami went  independent gain from BQ.  NDP won the predominately aboriginal communities in southern half, but Liberals took all those in Northern half otherwise ones under Cree territory


What's this "going Independent" business?  There wasn't an poll-winning Independent candidate...

It said other so not sure how that happened, could be a mistake on ridingbuilder.ca as overall numbers don't suggest it either.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1065 on: September 16, 2022, 03:43:38 PM »

Here are the maps by winner of each division for 2021

Alberta (only province Tories had sweep on divisions)



BC



Manitoba



New Brunswick



Newfoundland & Labrador



Northwest Territories



Nova Scotia



Nunavut

NDP Sweep

Ontario



Prince Edward Island - only other sweep along with Alberta



Quebec by region



Quebec by RCM



Saskatchewan



Yukon no divisions unlike ohters.
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adma
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« Reply #1066 on: September 16, 2022, 04:36:02 PM »

La Vallee de l'Or

BQ                 43% (+2)
Liberals          27% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
NDP               5% (-3)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-1)

Melartic, Rivere-Heva went Independent, Val d'Or went BQ

Nord du Quebec, see Regions but for municipalities Chibougamau, Chapais, Lebel sur Quevillon, Matagami went  independent gain from BQ.  NDP won the predominately aboriginal communities in southern half, but Liberals took all those in Northern half otherwise ones under Cree territory


What's this "going Independent" business?  There wasn't an poll-winning Independent candidate...

It said other so not sure how that happened, could be a mistake on ridingbuilder.ca as overall numbers don't suggest it either.

I suspect the mistake of which you speak.  There was no indy candidate in Abitibi-BJ-N-E.  (And beyond the Bloc-Lib-CPC-NDP big four, the biggest share was sub-4% for PPC.)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1067 on: September 16, 2022, 04:39:00 PM »

Here are 2019 results.  If same as 2021 I didn't bother pasting one in

Alberta - Tory sweep like 2021

BC



Manitoba no change in 2021

New Brunswick



Newfoundland & Labrador - same in 2019 as 2021

Northwest Territories - Liberal sweep in 2019

Nova Scotia



Nunavut



Ontario



PEI - Liberal sweep again

Quebec by Region



Quebec by RCM



Saskatchewan

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mileslunn
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« Reply #1068 on: September 16, 2022, 06:02:13 PM »

Here is right vs. left.  Blue is CPC + PPC 50% or higher, red is LPC + NDP + GPC + BQ higher.  Territories left out as in all three, left won every subdivision, although a few Yukon communities in south, right got more.

Alberta - note left outvoted right in Edmonton, but Division 11 right outvoted due to dominance beyond city



BC



Manitoba



New Brunswick



Newfoundland & Labrador



Nova Scotia



Ontario



PEI, all had left out vote right

Quebec by Region



Quebec by RCM



Saskatchewan - Tories only got plurality in Regina & Saskatoon but CPC + PPC did narrowly exceed 50% in both

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mileslunn
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« Reply #1069 on: September 16, 2022, 08:14:40 PM »

La Vallee de l'Or

BQ                 43% (+2)
Liberals          27% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
NDP               5% (-3)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-1)

Melartic, Rivere-Heva went Independent, Val d'Or went BQ

Nord du Quebec, see Regions but for municipalities Chibougamau, Chapais, Lebel sur Quevillon, Matagami went  independent gain from BQ.  NDP won the predominately aboriginal communities in southern half, but Liberals took all those in Northern half otherwise ones under Cree territory


What's this "going Independent" business?  There wasn't an poll-winning Independent candidate...

It said other so not sure how that happened, could be a mistake on ridingbuilder.ca as overall numbers don't suggest it either.

I suspect the mistake of which you speak.  There was no indy candidate in Abitibi-BJ-N-E.  (And beyond the Bloc-Lib-CPC-NDP big four, the biggest share was sub-4% for PPC.)

Looking at BQ numbers vs. 2019, I think fair to say BQ won those as looks like others and BQ swapped.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1070 on: September 17, 2022, 08:25:03 AM »

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.
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adma
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« Reply #1071 on: September 17, 2022, 11:09:31 AM »

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.

Yet for all their present CAQ-regionalist thrust, they don't make for a terribly easy lump with the right, either.  There's still a "Le Bon Jack NPD" undercurrent to their "reach" that's evident in, say, the Con-Bloc divide within the Quebec City environs...
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« Reply #1072 on: September 17, 2022, 03:07:57 PM »

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.
What makes you say that?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1073 on: September 17, 2022, 03:29:09 PM »

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.

BQ is a tough one to pin down as I wouldn't describe them as right wing, but not really left wing like were under Duceppe.  Strongest point is exurbs and rural areas which are not exactly hotbeds of left wing thinking.  Areas like Hochelaga, Sherbrooke, or Laurier-Sainte Marie which Duceppe won no longer going BQ.  At same time struggle in Chaudiere-Appalaches which is without question the most conservative part of Quebec.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1074 on: September 17, 2022, 05:32:05 PM »

Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.
What makes you say that?

In addition to what others have said, I get the feeling that they'd prefer to prop up the Conservatives over the Liberals if they held the balance of power.
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