2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[MaxQue]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

Val Gagné is not Francophone, but Mennonite.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

Val Gagné is not Francophone, but Mennonite.

Ah yes, you're right, there's actually an Old Order Mennonite church there.

Still, just looking at towns with the highest proportion of Francophones in Ontario going down the PPC overperformed in Hearst (94% Francophone), Moonbeam (84%), Hawkesbury (79%), Alfred and Plantagenet (74%), Smooth Rock Falls (71%) and Kapuskasing (70%).

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

Maybe we can chalk that up to Bernier's semi-unique position as a Francophone bringing a message geared towards non-urban and non-Quebec Canadians.

Definitely possible. If that's the case the days of Charlie Angus could be numbered when Poilievre becomes Tory leader.

[adma]

One other reflection of the PPC effect on the Mennonite community: in the far N of Alberta, the Mennonite settlement of La Crete has traditionally seen CPC shares at a North Korean level that's hyperactive even by rural Alberta standards.  *This* time, the La Crete polls went 618 CPC to 425 PPC (and 59 for "others", which also seems higher than the norm, even with Maverick accounted for).

ETA:  the La Crete advance went 792 CPC, 320 PPC, 62 "others".

[toaster]

Definitely possible. If that's the case the days of Charlie Angus could be numbered when Poilievre becomes Tory leader.

Have you heard Poilièvre speak French?  He sounds like an anglophone kid in a French Immersion class speaking.  Don't let the French last name fool you.  And one of the biggest turn offs for Francophones hors and in Quebec is an English person trying to speak French. His "French" while probably more "correct" or hyper-formal than most Franco-Ontariens, lacks their "native-slang" fluency for lack of a better term. He says "Jamais" as Jamé, "Je fais" (fé, native Speakers in Canada say "Fè", "jamè"), Je vais (Says it :Je vé..hyper formal in Canada native French speakers use Je vè or even the incorrect Je va (orally).  Let's just say Charlie won't have to worry about Poillièvre having the same Francophone appeal that Bernier has in these communities because of his mother tongue.

[adma]

Here's the seats where Advance/Special differed from e-day in any way...

Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame:  Advance & Special Lib (final CPC)

Halifax: e-day NDP (final Lib)

South Shore-St Margarets:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Sydney-Victoria:  Advance & Special CPC (final Lib)

Fredericton:  Advance & Special CPC (final Lib)

Miramichi-Grand Lake:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Beauport-Limoilou:  Advance CPC, Special Lib, Advance + Special BQ (final BQ)

(Berthier-Maskinonge:  REB lost e-day by only 62 votes)

Brome Missisquoi:  e-day BQ (final Lib)

Chateaugay-Lacolle: Advance BQ (Advance + Special BQ) (final Lib)

Hochelaga:  Advance BQ (final Lib)

(Laurier-Sainte-Marie:  Guilbeault ahead of NDP by only 66 votes on e-day)

Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne:  Advance BQ (final Lib)

Longueuil-Saint Hubert:  e-day Lib (final BQ)

Riviere-des-Mille-Iles:  Special Lib (final BQ)

Shefford:  Special Lib (final BQ)

Therese-De Blainville:  Special Lib (final BQ)

Trois-Rivieres:  Special Lib, e-day CPC (final BQ--who were 3rd on e-day)

Brampton East:  Special CPC (final Lib--but some kind of significant tab error, w/oversized NDP/PPC and undersized Lib in the Special tally)

(Carleton:  Skippy only won the Group 2 Special by 10 votes)

Davenport:  Advance/Special NDP (final Lib)

Flamborough-Glanbrook:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Hastings-Lennox and Addington:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Kanata-Carleton:  Advance CPC (final Lib)

King-Vaughan:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Kitchener-Conestoga:  Advance CPC (final Lib)

Kitchener South-Hespeler:  Advance CPC (by 2 votes!) (final Lib)

Niagara Falls:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Northumberland-Peterborough South:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Parkdale-High Park:  Special NDP (final Lib)

Perth-Wellington:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Peterborough-Kawartha:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Sault Ste Marie:  e-day CPC (final Lib)

Spadina-Fort York:  e-day NDP (duh) (final Lib)

Windsor-Tecumseh:  e-day NDP (final Lib)

Charleswood-St James-Assiniboia-Headingley:  Special Lib (final CPC)

(Portage-Lisgar:  Group 2 Special PPC)

Regina-Lewvan:  Special NDP (final CPC)

Saskatoon-University:  Special NDP (final CPC)

Saskatoon West:  Special NDP (final CPC)

Edmonton Centre:  Advance CPC (final Lib)

Edmonton Griesbach:  Advance CPC (final NDP)

Cloverdale-Langley City:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC) (final Lib)

Kootenay-Columbia:  Special NDP (final CPC)

Nanaimo-Ladysmith:  Advance CPC, Special Green (Advance + Special CPC) (final NDP--3rd in Advance + Special)

North Island-Powell River:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC) (final NDP)

Richmond Centre:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC)  (final Lib)

Skeena-Bulkley Valley:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC)  (final NDP)

South Surrey-White Rock:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Vancouver Granville:  e-day NDP (final Lib)

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea To Sky Country:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC) (final Lib)

Nunavut:  Advance Lib (final NDP)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Another oddity, this time in the northern QC riding of Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.

For some reason minor parties but especially the Marijuana Party did unusually well in the Inuit polls. Maybe the funniest poll result came from Tasiujaq's poll 11, where the Conservatives managed to come sixth behind the FPC, the PPC and the Marijuana party. It isn't just a weird artifact of low turnout or LPC/NDP dominance like some other unexpected results from reserves; the latter three combined would have actually tied for first with the Liberals.

[adma]

Another oddity, this time in the northern QC riding of Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.

For some reason minor parties but especially the Marijuana Party did unusually well in the Inuit polls. Maybe the funniest poll result came from Tasiujaq's poll 11, where the Conservatives managed to come sixth behind the FPC, the PPC and the Marijuana party. It isn't just a weird artifact of low turnout or LPC/NDP dominance like some other unexpected results from reserves; the latter three combined would have actually tied for first with the Liberals.

I checked; it's only 64 votes altogether (the winning Liberal got 20 votes, or 31%).  In its rogueishness, it also reminds me of certain mobile or "institutional" polls (the latter of which seem to have been more prevalent in the past: psychiatric hospitals where fringe candidates overperformed at the expense of mainstreamers and the like)

[Hatman 🍁]

Another oddity, this time in the northern QC riding of Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.

For some reason minor parties but especially the Marijuana Party did unusually well in the Inuit polls. Maybe the funniest poll result came from Tasiujaq's poll 11, where the Conservatives managed to come sixth behind the FPC, the PPC and the Marijuana party. It isn't just a weird artifact of low turnout or LPC/NDP dominance like some other unexpected results from reserves; the latter three combined would have actually tied for first with the Liberals.

I checked; it's only 64 votes altogether (the winning Liberal got 20 votes, or 31%).  In its rogueishness, it also reminds me of certain mobile or "institutional" polls (the latter of which seem to have been more prevalent in the past: psychiatric hospitals where fringe candidates overperformed at the expense of mainstreamers and the like)

I wonder if that's the case of people just voting randomly (in psychiatric hospitals)?

[adma]

Another oddity, this time in the northern QC riding of Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.

For some reason minor parties but especially the Marijuana Party did unusually well in the Inuit polls. Maybe the funniest poll result came from Tasiujaq's poll 11, where the Conservatives managed to come sixth behind the FPC, the PPC and the Marijuana party. It isn't just a weird artifact of low turnout or LPC/NDP dominance like some other unexpected results from reserves; the latter three combined would have actually tied for first with the Liberals.

I checked; it's only 64 votes altogether (the winning Liberal got 20 votes, or 31%).  In its rogueishness, it also reminds me of certain mobile or "institutional" polls (the latter of which seem to have been more prevalent in the past: psychiatric hospitals where fringe candidates overperformed at the expense of mainstreamers and the like)

I wonder if that's the case of people just voting randomly (in psychiatric hospitals)?

Could be; a matter of eeny meeny miny mo or pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey randomness among those technically incompetent to make an informed decision upon exercising their franchise.  (And likewise with mayoral races, where in Toronto at least, assisted housing, institutional, and shelter polls have been *very* prone to plumping things on behalf of the fringe.)

[adma]

The Election Atlas polling maps have been up for a week or so, in case anyone wants a look.

I've been going through things in Ontario slowly and alphabetically--one thing I'm wondering about re PPC's overperformance in AMK's Kap-Hearst "11 corridor" is whether some kind of observant Catholic element within the Franco-Ontarian electorate was mobilized.  And what's interesting is how PPC actually *underperformed* in the most traditionally right/populist-leaning parts (Echo Bay et al in SSM's outskirts).

Also, in Aurora-OR-RH, while the Chinese shift to the Libs has been noted, what I also noticed was a counter-swing *to* the Cons in Aurora, which suggests that O'Toole did have success (however limited) in repatriating some of the more traditionally "moderate Tory" Ontario demos that have strayed in the Liberal direction in recent elections.

Plus, the helter-skelter random-fire poll amalgamations in certain constituencies have rendered the polling map an incoherent, disconnective mess (how did they choose what to amalgamate?  pulling numbers from a hat?).  And in many cases, there's been a *huge* bump in the NDP vote in the Group 1 Special Voting Rules (what would that be?  Incarcerated electors?)

[mileslunn]

Using Riding builder, I was able to put together results by county in Canada.  Below is 2021 and in brackets I put change from 2019.  This will be a few posts as one per province.  I also did by municipality but posts way too long.  Later I can do some maps.

Alberta

Division 1

Conservatives 64% (-14)
NDP               16% (+7)
PPC                9% (+7)
Liberals          8% (+1)
Greens           1% (-1)

Division 2

Conservatives 60% (-12)
NDP               16% (+4)
Liberals          12% (+1)
PPC                8% (+6)
Greens            >1% (-3)

Lethbridge itself despite being competitive provincially still went solidly CPC 52% with NDP in second at 22%

Division 3

Conservatives 69% (-11)
NDP               10% (+3)
PPC                9% (-6)
Liberals          7% (+1)
Greens           3% (-1)

Division 4

Conservatives 80% (-12)
PPC                7% (+5)
NDP                4% (+1)
Liberals            3% (+1)
Greens            1%(-)

This is fairly sparsely populated and in found in areas with mostly farms and small hamlets is where Tories ran up biggest margins

Division 5

Conservatives 70% (-13)
PPC                10% (+7)
NDP               10% (+6)
Liberals           5% (-)
Greens            >1%(-2)

Division 6

Conservatives 56% (-13)
Liberals          20% (+4)
NDP               16% (+7)
PPC                5% (+3)
Greens           2% (-2)

In Calgary it was CPC 53 LPC 22 NDP 17 PPC 5.  Interestingly enough CPC got 66% in 2019 in Calgary which is pretty much unheard of for a party on the right in a city this large in the Anglosphere.

Division 7

Conservatives 75% (-13)
PPC               8% (+5)
NDP               7% (-3)
Liberals          4% (+1)
Greens           1% (-1)

Division 8

Conservatives 64% (-16)
NDP               15% (+7)
PPC                12% (+8)
Liberals           6%(-)
Greens            0% (-3)

Division 9

Conservatives 70% (-17)
PPC                14% (+9)
NDP                8% (+3)
Liberals           4% (-)
Greens            0% (-2)

Division 10

Conservatives 69% (-15)
NDP               11% (+5)
PPC                10% (+7)
Liberals           5% (+1)
Greens            1% (-2)

Division 11

Conservatives 46% (-14)
NDP               28% (+11)
Liberals          18% (-)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens           >1% (-2)

In Edmonton, Tories unlike provincially narrowly won but tightened quite a bit from 2019.  Results were CPC 39% NDP 32% LPC 23% PPC 5% while in 2019 CPC got 52% in Edmonton.  Results higher as surrounding areas far more conservative.  Even provincially, NDP only won this division by 3 points, 45% to 42% despite winning Edmonton by much bigger margin.

Division 12

Conservatives 67% (-14)
PPC               13% (+10)
NDP               12% (+4)
Liberals          6% (-)
Greens           1% (-1)

Division 13

Conservatives 66% (-18)
PPC                12% (+9)
NDP                11% (+5)
Liberals            5% (-)
Greens            1% (-1)

Division 14

Conservatives 70% (-17)
PPC                14% (+9)
NDP                9% (+4)
Liberals           4% (-)
Greens            0% (-2)

Division 15

Conservatives 39% (-5)
NDP               27% (+6)
Liberals          23% (+2)
PPC                5% (+2)
Greens           4% (-7)

NDP flipped Banff which Tories won on splits in 2019.  Canmore went Conservative, but only 35% thanks to strong splits.  Jasper was solidly NDP and Lake Louise also went NDP too.  Conservative support more in Crowsnest Pass and other unincorporated areas

Division 16

Conservatives 70% (-10)
PPC                12% (+8)
NDP                9% (+4)
Liberals           8% (-3)
Greens            1% (-)

Division 17

Conservatives 59% (-16)
NDP               15% (+5)
PPC                14% (+9)
Liberals           7% (-2)
Greens            1% (-2)

NDP won big on Indian reserves so like much of Prairies easy to pick them out. 

Division 18

Conservatives 64% (-19)
NDP               11% (+4)
PPC                10% (+7)
Liberals           5% (-)
Greens            0% (-2)

Division 19

Conservatives 68% (-16)
NDP               13% (+6)
PPC                10% (+7)
Liberals           5% (-)
Greens            0% (-2)

Conservatives took a big hit, largely Kenney effect, but appears went in both directions.  NDP gained on left, but PPC on right thus may explain why UCP having such difficulty now as do they go right to win back PPC voters or be more centrist to win over those who went left.  Liberals were largely flat.  At same time 2019 was a high point for Conservatives so in some ways numbers just came back to earth as Conservatives still as usual won big in Alberta.  I will do a separate post for each province and do them in alphabetical order so BC next.

[mileslunn]

British Columbia

Alberni-Clayquot

NDP                50% (-2)
Conservatives  29% (+1)
Liberals           10% (+1)
Greens            6%   (-4)
PPC                 5% (+5)

NDP won all parts including even blue collar Port Alberni which has not shifted like some blue collar places in other parts of country or abroad.

Bulkley-Nechako

Conservatives 50% (-)
NDP               27% (+2)
PPC                11% (+8)
Liberals          7%  (-4)
Greens            3% (-4)

Tories flipped Smithers from NDP while NDP picked up Fort St. James from Tories but both quite close.  Vanderhoof, Houston, and Telkwa went Conservative both times while Burns Lake NDP both times.  NDP dominated reserves and First Nations communities obviously.

Capital

NDP                36% (+8)
Liberals           22% (+3)
Conservatives  20% (+2)
Greens            18% (-15)
PPC                 4%  (+3)

Oak Bay went Liberal, pick up from Greens.  Central Saanich, Sidney, North Saanich, and Gulf Islands were Green holds.  Saanich and Metchosin flipped from Greens to NDP.  Rest NDP hold.  Unlike a decade ago, Tories didn't win anything here and were generally not competitive but North Saanich was closest being 34% Green to 33% CPC

Cariboo

Conservatives 53% (-4)
NDP               20% (+7)
Liberals          15% (-3)
PPC                8% (+6)
Greens            3% (-7)

NDP won the historical and touristy town of Wells, everything else went solidly Conservative.

Central Coast

NDP                61% (+2)
Conservatives  14% (+1)
PPC                 11% (+9)
Greens            7%   (-6)
Liberals           7%   (-2)

Surprised PPC so high here as this area largely indigenous.

Central Kootenay

NDP                44% (+1)
Conservatives  32% (-)
PPC                 9% (+6)
Liberals            9% (+6)
Greens            6% (-7)

NDP flipped Salmo largely due to implosion of Greens while PPC got 10% mostly at expense of CPC.  Creston went solidly CPC (its more politically like East Kootenays than central part) while Nakusp narrowly went Conservative.  Nelson was NDP blowout and Tories in teens which is quite low for interior, but town is known as a hippy one.  Lots of draft dodgers in 60s settled there.

Central Okanagan

Conservatives 46% (-1)
Liberals          25% (-5)
NDP               19% (+6)
PPC                7%  (+5)
Greens           3%  (-4)

Conservatives won all municipalities here.  Plurality in Kelowna, majority in remainder

Columbia-Shuswap

Conservatives 44% (-2)
NDP               25% (+3)
Liberals          16% (-4)
PPC                 9% (+7)
Greens            5% (-4)

NDP wins Revelstoke (and by big margin unlike provincially where much closer)  and Golden.  Conservatives win Salmon Arm and Sicamous and also unincorporated portions.

Comox Valley

NDP                43% (+3)
Conservatives  33% (+1)
Liberals           13% (+1)
Greens            6%  (-9)
PPC                 5% (+4)

NDP not only won Cumberland as expected but even Comox and Courtenay.  Both have large senior population, many from Alberta but my guess is more progressive types move to Island, more conservative to Okanagan Valley

Cowichan Valley

NDP                40% (+6)
Conservatives  29% (+2)
Liberals           14% (-)
Greens             9% (-14)
PPC                  6% (+4)

NDP won all municipalities and unincorporated.  Ladysmith flipped from Greens to NDP

East Kootenay

Conservatives 52% (-3)
NDP               31% (+4)
Liberals           9% (-)
PPC                 6% (+4)
Greens            3% (-3)

NDP flipped Kimberley and Fernie which both went Conservative narrowly in 2019 so some residual blue collar support.  Invermere narrowly went Conservative while Cranbrook and Radium Hot Springs more solid wins and Sparwood and landslide Conservative win.

Fraser Valley

Conservatives 46% (-2)
Liberals          22% (-1)
NDP               21% (+1)
PPC                7%  (+4)
Greens            3% (-6)

Conservatives won all incorporated municipalities which is not surprising.

Fraser-Fort George

Conservatives 48% (-2)
NDP               22% (+6)
Liberals          17% (-4)
PPC                8% (+5)
Greens           5% (-5)

Conservatives also won all municipalities here

Kitimat-Stikine

NDP                46% (+3)
Conservatives  35% (+3)
Liberals           8% (-5)
PPC                 7% (+5)
Greens            3% (-4)

NDP surprisingly won Terrace even though provincially goes BC Liberals.  Kitimat went Conservative probably due to building of LNG so despite NDP past has swung right at both levels.  Stewart also Conservative.  Most unincorporated went NDP.  I am guessing amongst whites Tories won here and it was large indigenous population that tipped it to NDP.

Kootenay-Boundary

NDP                43% (+6)
Conservatives  33% (-1)
Liberals           10% (-5)
PPC                 8% (+5)
Greens             5% (-5)

NDP flipped Montrose from Conservatives rest went NDP.  Conservatives won some unincorporated areas however.

Metro Vancouver

Liberals           37% (+3)
Conservatives  29% (-1)
NDP                28% (+3)
PPC                 3%  (+2)
Greens            2% (-6)

Liberals: Bowen Island, Coquitlam (gain from Tories), Delta, University Endowment Lands, City of North Vancouver, District of North Vancouver, Port Coquitlam, Richmond (Gain from Tories, Tory win by +17 in 2019, Liberal +6 2021), Surrey, White Rock

Conservatives: Anmore, Belcarra (only municipality Tories got over 50% in), City of Langley, Township of Langley, Maple Ridge, West Vancouver

NDP:  Burnaby, New Westminster, Pitt Meadows (gain from Tories), Port Moody (gain from Liberals), Vancouver (gain from Liberals)

Mount Waddington

NDP                41% (-)
Conservatives  39% (+2)
Liberals           11% (+2)
Greens             5% (-6)
PPC                  4% (+2)

Conservatives won both Port Hardy and Port McNeil, but rest went NDP.  So does suggest making inroads amongst blue collar workers on very north end of island but less so further south.

Nanaimo

NDP                32% (+6)
Conservatives  30% (-)
Greens            19% (-10)
Liberals           15% (+1)
PPC                 5% (+4)

This was a gain from Tories but in 2019 won largely on splits.  Lantzville went Conservative while both Parksville and Qualicum Beach were NDP gains from Tories.  Kind of surprising as both have lots of retirees and not long ago were reliably conservative.  NDP picks up Nanaimo from Greens.  Unincorporated mostly NDP, but Tories won some areas along coast.

North Coast

NDP                58% (+2)
Conservatives  21% (+3)
Liberals           8% (-3)
Greens            6% (-5)
PPC                 5% (+4)

NDP won all municipalities and unincorporated.  Interestingly enough Prince Rupert went BC Liberal in 2017 although swung massively NDP in 2020

North Okanagan

Conservatives 45% (-2)
NDP               20% (+4)
Liberals          19% (-3)
PPC                10% (+7)
Greens            6% (-5)

Conservatives swept all municipalities not surprisingly.  Vernon though was only one where combined right (CPC + PPC) was below 50%

Northern Rockies

Conservatives 72% (-10)
NDP               9% (+3)
Liberals          7% (-)
PPC               7% (+5)
Greens           1% (-2)

This area much like Peace River district votes more like Alberta than BC.  Even BC Interior is usually not this lopsided.

Okanagan-Similkameen

Conservatives 40% (+1)
NDP               34% (+4)
Liberals          16% (-5)
PPC                6% (+4)
Greens            3% (-4)

Conservatives won every municipality except Penticton which oddly enough went BC Liberal in both 2017 and 2020 but NDP both times federally which is weird.  Also Naramata unincorporated went NDP too.

Peace River

Conservatives 67% (-13)
PPC                11% (+8)
NDP                9% (+3)
Liberals           5% (-2)
Greens            2% (-2)

All Conservative blowouts and probably most right wing division outside Prairies.  Only thing of interest is in 2020, BC Conservatives won Hudson's Hope.

Qathet

NDP                47% (+2)
Conservatives  25% (+2)
Liberals           14% (-)
Greens            8%  (-7)
PPC                 6% (+4)

NDP dominated this.  This area despite being heavily blue collar is not really trending right like some others are.

Squamish-Lillooet

Liberals           32% (-2)
NDP                30% (+14)
Conservatives  23% (+5)
Greens            10% (-20)
PPC                 4%   (+3)

Liberals won both Squamish and Whistler while picked up Pemberton from Greens.  Conservatives won Lillooet.  It does seem despite losing O'Toole did better in more upper middle class tourist areas as saw same in Ontario so his more moderate version probably more acceptable.

Stikine

Conservatives 40% (+6)
NDP               30% (+3)
Liberals          19% (-3)
PPC                8% (+7)
Greens           2% (-13)

Strathcona

Conservatives 39% (+4)
NDP               37% (-1)
Liberals          13% (-)
Greens           5% (-7)
PPC                5% (+3)

NDP won Tahsis.  Conservatives held Campbell River while flipped Gold River from NDP.

Sunshine Coast

NDP                37% (+16)
Liberals           28% (-2)
Conservatives  24% (+3)
Greens            5% (-20)
PPC                 5% (+3)

This was a pickup by NDP by largely due to implosion of Greens mostly going to NDP.  Both Gibsons and Sechelt were NDP pickups from Liberals

Thompson-Nicola

Conservatives 44% (-1)
NDP               29% (+14)
Liberals          18% (-9)
PPC                6% (+4)
Greens            4% (-8)

Sun Peaks Mountain resort was a Tory gain from Liberals so goes to idea O'Toole more acceptable to upper class university educated types.  Conservatives won everything else however only a plurality in Kamloops while most others were outright majority.

[mileslunn]

Manitoba

Division 1

Conservatives 54% (-9)
Liberals          17% (+3)
NDP               14% (+2)
PPC                11% (+9)
Greens           3% (-4)

Conservative won all municipalities here although PPC got into low 20s in ones along US border

Division 2

Conservatives 48% (-19)
PPC                18% (+16)
Liberals           16% (+3)
NDP               12% (-)
Greens            2% (-4)

Conservatives won all again, but Ste. Anne and St. Pierre Jolys Liberals came close.  Looks like Liberals did well amongst Francophones while PPC strongest in heavy German areas

Division 3

Conservatives 50% (-27)
PPC                29% (+26)
NDP               11% (+5)
Liberals           7% (-)
Greens            0% (-5)

PPC won Stanley and came within 12 votes of winning Rhineland.  Everything else went Conservative.

Division 4

Conservatives 61% (-8)
PPC                13% (+11)
NDP                13% (+6)
Liberals           12% (+2)
Greens             0% (-9)

Conservative sweep here as well

Division 5

Conservatives 71% (-7)
NDP               12% (+6)
PPC                9% (+8)
Liberals           7% (+1)
Greens            0% (-7)

Division 6

Conservatives 73% (-4)
NDP               10% (+2)
PPC                10% (+9)
Liberals           7% (-)
Greens            1% (-4)

Division 7

Conservatives 55% (-3)
NDP               24% (+7)
Liberals          14% (-)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens           0% (-7)

Conservatives won all including Brandon which was 50% CPC to 28% NDP

Division 8

Conservatives 62% (-8)
PPC                15% (+13)
NDP               13% (+5)
Liberals           9% (-7)
Greens            1% (-2)

Division 9

Conservatives: 54% (-7)
NDP                 17% (+5)
Liberals            15% (-2)
PPC                  13% (+10)
Greens              0% (-5)

Division 10

Conservatives 57% (-8)
Liberals          18% (+4)
NDP               16% (+4)
PPC                9% (+7)
Greens            0% (-7)

Division 11

Liberals:          38% (+2)
Conservatives: 29% (-4)
NDP                 27% (+3)
PPC                 4% (+2)
Greens            2% (-3)

Liberals obviously won Winnipeg, but Headingley other municipality it went solidly conservative 58% to Liberals 27% but its more exurban/rural.

Division 12

Conservatives 52% (-9)
Liberals          17% (+4)
NDP               17% (-)
PPC                10% (+8)
Greens            3% (-4)

Division 13

Conservatives 53% (-4)
NDP               21% (+1)
Liberals          18% (+1)
PPC                7% (+6)
Greens           2% (-3)

Division 14

Conservatives 64% (-5)
NDP               16% (+2)
Liberals          11% (+1)
PPC                7% (+6)
Greens           2% (-3)

Division 15

Conservatives 63% (-5)
NDP               13% (-)
Liberals          12% (+2)
PPC                8% (+6)
Greens           3% (-4)

Division 16

Conservatives 67% (-3)
NDP               12% (-)
Liberals          10% (-)
PPC                9% (+7)
Greens           1% (-3)

Division 17

Conservatives 54% (-4)
NDP               17% (-1)
Liberals          16% (-)
PPC                10% (+9)
Greens           2% (-4)

Division 18

Conservatives 58% (-7)
NDP               19% (+2)
Liberals          13% (-)
PPC                8% (+7)
Greens           2% (-3)

Division 19

NDP               56% (-2)
Liberals          31% (-2)
Conservatives 9% (+2)
PPC                2% (+2)
Greens           2% (-)

Liberals won some parts of the unorganized, but all reserves went NDP

Division 20

Conservatives 59% (-10)
PPC               15% (+13)
NDP               12% (-)
Liberals         11% (+1)
Greens           2% (-3)

Division 21

NDP                36% (-9)
Conservatives  35% (+3)
Liberals           18% (+4)
PPC                 7% (+5)
Greens            5% (-3)

Kelsey RM went Conservative but unorganized NDP so looks like in Northern Manitoba Tories gaining blue collar workers, but large aboriginal population (as they have not made inroads there) is big reason Churchill-Keewatinook-Aski still solid NDP.  Conservatives also won Flin Flon and got over 50% there.

Division 22

NDP                40% (-9)
Liberals           32% (+2)
Conservatives  22% (+5)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens            2% (-1)

Tories won Thompson (and quite a big swing so shades of what happened in Northern Ontario) but rest went solidly NDP and some Liberals.  

Division 23

NDP               53% (-3)
Liberals          24% (+1)
Conservatives 15% (+3)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens            3% (-4)

NDP dominated this.  Churchill also has strong tourism industry so probably why less of a swing right than The Pas, Flin Flon, or Thompson

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick

Albert County

Conservatives 41% (+2)
Liberals          31% (+2)
NDP               16% (+4)
PPC                8% (+5)
Greens           4% (-14)

Liberals picked up Riverview from Tories (largely thanks to implosion of Greens as Conservative vote rose), Riverside-Albert, Alma are Tory pick ups (Liberals dropped quite dramatically in both), all others are Tory holds

Carleton County

Conservatives 57% (-)
Liberals          19% (-1)
NDP               11% (+3)
PPC                8% (+6)
Greens           4% (-10)

Conservative sweep of municipalities here

Charlotte County

Conservatives 51% (-1)
Liberals          23% (-6)
NDP               12% (+5)
PPC                10% (+7)
Greens            4% (-5)

Liberals won St. Andrews, everything else went Conservative

Gloucester County

Liberals          65% (+10)
Conservatives 14% (-7)
NDP               11% (-3)
PPC                6% (+6)
Greens            3% (-6)

Miscou was a Liberal pick up from Tories.  New Bandon went Conservative both times.  Everything else went Liberal many landslides.

Kent County

Liberals           55% (+8)
Conservatives  18% (+1)
PPC                 9%  (+7)
NDP                 9% (+3)
Greens            7% (-20)

Weldford was a Tory pick up, everything else went Liberal

Kings County

Conservatives 47% (+1)
Liberals          30% (+2)
NDP               13% (+3)
PPC                6% (-4)
Greens            4% (-9)

Rothesay was a Liberal pickup everything else Tory hold.

Madawaska County

Liberals           53% (+4)
Conservatives  32% (-4)
PPC                 6% (+6)
NDP                4% (-1)
Greens            2% (-9)

Conservatives won Saint Leonard and Baker Brook Sainte Anne-de Madawaska a Liberal pick up as is Riviere Verte (latter massive swing), Saint Andre a Tory pick up

Northumberland County

Conservatives 46% (+10)
Liberals          39% (+2)
NDP               6% (-3)
PPC               5% (+2)
Greens           4% (-6)

Conservative wins both times are Blackville, Doaktown, Northesk, Southesk, Upper Miramichi, Napan, Derby, and Nelson.  Liberal wins both times are Neguac, Rogersville, Tabusintac, Fairisle.  Tory pick ups from Liberals in 2021 were Miramichi, Baie Sainte Anne, and Newcastle Parish

Queens County

Conservatives 52% (+2)
Liberals          24% (+1)
NDP               11% (+4)
PPC                9% (+5)
Greens            5% (-8)

Conservative sweep here.

Restigouche County

Liberals          56% (+4)
Conservatives 21% (-1)
NDP               8% (-)
PPC               7% (+7)
Greens           3% (-16)

San Quentin Liberal pick up from Greens, rest all Liberal holds

Saint John County

Liberals           47% (+6)
Conservatives  30% (-1)
NDP                12% (-1)
PPC                 7% (+5)
Greens            3% (-9)

Saint John went Liberal were majority live but other three municipalities which are fairly rural with not many went Conservative.

Sunbury County

Conservatives 51% (+8)
Liberals          25% (+6)
NDP               14% (+6)
Greens           7% (-19)
PPC                2% (-1)

Conservative sweep here.

Victoria County

Conservatives 45% (-1)
Liberals          29% (-6)
PPC                12% (+10)
NDP               9% (+2)
Greens           3% (-7)

Grand Falls went Liberal, everything else Conservative.

Westmoreland County

Liberals          50% (+7)
Conservatives 24% (+2)
NDP               15% (+5)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens           5% (-16)

Conservatives won Salisbury, Petiticodiac, and Berry Mills.  Sackville & Dorchester Liberal pick ups from Greens.  Murray's Corner Liberal Pick up from Tories.  Port Elgin Tory pick up from Greens

York County

Conservatives 38% (+3)
Liberals          35% (+7)
NDP               13% (+7)
Greens           11% (-17)
PPC                2%  (-)

McAdam saw Tories get 80% so most conservative municipality in New Brunswick, any reason for that?  Fredericton a Liberal pickup from Greens.  New Maryland Liberal pickup from Conservatives while Hanwell Conservative pick up from Liberals.

New Brunswick overall is essentially Liberals: Urban Anglophone + Francophone.  Conservatives rural Anglophone.

[Central Lake]

I am looking forward to your Newfoundland analysis. Especially areas in the four ridings not named St. John's. See where the Conservatives gained the most/least and where they lost.

[mileslunn]

I am looking forward to your Newfoundland analysis. Especially areas in the four ridings not named St. John's. See where the Conservatives gained the most/least and where they lost.

On its way.  Interestingly enough win or lose, O'Toole in almost all parts of Rural Newfoundland outperformed Harper in 2011.  In fact province has flipped from 20 years ago with St. John's now being weakest not strongest for Tories while rural still competitive but trending right.  Newfoundland while later than most provinces is more or less following general trends.

[mileslunn]

Newfoundland & Labrador

Division 1

Liberals           50% (+7)
Conservatives  25% (+2)
NDP                23% (-7)
PPC                 2% (+2)
Greens            0% (-3)

Wabana (Tory flip from NDP), Pouch Cove and Bauline (Liberal flip from Conservative), Flatrock (Liberal flip from Conservative), Logy Bay-Outer Middle cove (Liberal flip from NDP), Torbay (Liberal flip from NDP), Portugal Cove-St. Philips (Liberal flip from NDP), St. John's (Liberal hold), Mount Pearl (Liberal hold), Paradise (Liberal hold), Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove (Liberal hold).  All the rest Liberal holds, but in rural parts of Avalon Peninsula Tories had strong second but fell short.

Division 2

Conservatives 47% (+2)
Liberals          42% (-)
NDP               7% (-3)
PPC                4% (+4)
Greens           0% (-3)

Liberals won Grand Bank, Fortune, while rest went Conservative.

Division 3

Liberals            48% (-6)
Conservatives   43% (+18)
NDP                 7% (-11)
PPC                  2% (+2)
Greens             0% (-3)

Conservatives flipped Channel Port aux Basques from Liberals (by 2 votes only), and Harbour Breton.  Liberals won rest.  Liberals dominated the more sparsely unincorporated areas.

Division 4

Liberals           41% (-2)
Conservatives  40% (+8)
NDP                11% (-7)
PPC                 8% (+8)
Greens            0% (-4)

Conservatives flipped from Liberals Stephenville Crossing, Kippens, and Port au Port, Cape St. George rest went Liberals.  This was best part of province for PPC who got in double digits in some communities, not sure why.

Division 5

Liberals           44% (-2)
Conservatives  37% (+12)
NDP                16% (-9)
PPC                 3% (+3)
Greens            0% (-3)

Conservatives gain Deer Lake rest goes Liberal.

Division 6

Liberals           53% (-)
Conservatives  39% (+9)
NDP                8% (-6)
Greens            0% (-3)
No PPC candidate in either 2021 or 2019

Conservative won Badger both times, everything else Liberal.  Scott Simms lost mostly due to areas on north end of riding, dominated areas south of TransCanada Highway

Division 7

Liberals           47% (-)
Conservatives  40% (+1)
NDP                8% (-4)
PPC                 4% (+4)
Greens            0% (-3)

Conservatives won Glovertown, Liberals picked up from Tories Bonavista while rest Liberals both times.

Division 8

Conservatives 56% (+12)
Liberals          38% (-4)
NDP               6% (-3)
Greens           0% (-5)
No PPC candidate either time

Liberals won Fogo Island, Twilinigate, Conservatives flipped Lewisporte, everything else went Conservative both times.  La Scie, Baie Verte, and Embree saw Conservatives get around 2/3 of vote which outside New Brunswick, that is unusual in Atlantic Canada, although Tories in Nova Scotia post did get this as well on south end over Lobster fishery dispute.

Division 9

Liberals           60% (-2)
Conservatives  33% (+14)
NDP                5% (-10)
PPC                 2% (+2)
Greens            0% (-3)

Liberals won all here.

Division 10

Liberals           48% (+3)
Conservatives  27% (-5)
NDP                22% (+1)
PPC                 3% (+3)
Greens            0% (-2)

Liberals flipped Churchill Falls from Conservatives, while Conservatives won Wabush.

Division 11

NDP                 56% (+10)
Liberals            34% (-9)
Conservatives    8% (-1)
PPC                  2% (+2)
Greens             0% (-2)

Looks like big swing to Tories in Eastern half of rural Newfoundland was in 2019 not 2021 while Western Newfoundland where Liberals strong provincially so big swing in 2021.  Interestingly enough it looks like it mostly came at expense of NDP not Liberals.  My guess is people feel Liberals to Central Canadian big city under Trudeau so went NDP as still mad at Tories from earlier, but with Singh coming across as too big a city population swung over to Tories. 

[adma]

Let's keep in mind that a *lot* of these results are due to "local conditions"--specific riding candidacies and campaigns, et al--so it's hazardous to make overly generic readings.  (Like, in N&L, the absence of Jack Harris hurt the NDP in St. John's relative to 2019--and in Long Range Mountains, the NDP might have backhandedly benefited from a CPC parachute in '19, while the Cons offered a more serious candidate/campaign in '21 and made it into more of a perceived "strategic" red vs blue race.)

[mileslunn]

Nova Scotia

Annapolis County

Conservatives 39% (+7)
Liberals          37% (-1)
NDP               18% (+6)
PPC                7% (+7)
Greens            0% (-17)

Liberals won Annapolis Royal, Bridgetown, Middleton, Annapolis Sub B, Tories flipped Annapolis Sub A from Liberals while Annapolis Sub C and Sub D went Conservative both times.

Antigonish County

Liberals           46% (-1)
Conservatives  31% (+2)
NDP                18% (+3)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens            1% (-6)

Conservatives flipped Antigonish Sub B

Cape Breton County

Liberals           43% (+10)
Conservatives  34% (+3)
NDP                19% (-)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens             1% (-4)

Unified municipality, but Tories did win some on west and south end, NDP strongest on north end, Liberals dominated more urban parts.

Colchester County

Conservatives 47% (+13)
Liberals          34% (-6(
NDP               13% (-1)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-9)

Liberals won both times Truro, while Conservatives won Colchester sub C both times.  Everything else went Liberal in 2019, Conservative in 2021.

Cumberland County

Conservatives 45% (+6)
Liberals          35% (+4)
NDP               10% (-1)
PPC                5% (+3)
Greens           4% (-13)

Liberals won Amherst, Tories flipped Parrsboro from Liberals, everything else was a Conservative hold.

Digby County

Conservatives 55% (+20)
Liberals          30% (-11)
NDP               11% (+1)
PPC                5% (+5)
Greens            0% (-14)

Clare flipped (I believe large Francophone population so interesting) while Digby town and municipality went Conservative both times.

Guysborough County

Liberals           44% (+2)
Conservatives  42% (+7)
NDP                9% (-3)
PPC                 5% (+3)
Greens            0% (-7)

Conservatives flipped both Mulgrave and Canso.  Guysborough went Liberal by only 2 votes.  St. Mary's was more solidly Liberal.

Halifax County

Liberals           46% (+2)
NDP                30% (+6)
Conservatives  17% (-1)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens            2% (-10)

Single municipality, but Liberals dominated suburbs and rural parts within commuting distance.  NDP won urban core parts.  Tories only won rural parts that are beyond commuting distance.

Hants County

Liberals           45% (-)
Conservatives  30% (+5)
NDP                18% (+2)
PPC                 5% (+3)
Greens            2% (-9)

Liberal sweep

Inverness County
 
Liberals            46% (+5)
Conservatives   37% (+6)
NDP                 12% (-)
PPC                  5% (+3)
Greens             0% (-13)

Conservatives flipped Inverness sub B and Inverness by 7 votes.  Other two went Liberal

Kings County

Liberals           42% (+3)
Conservatives  33% (+5)
NDP                19% (+2)
PPC                 5% (+4)
Greens             1% (-13)

Wolfville NDP flipped from Liberals (It is a university town so no surprise), Conservatives flip Waterville, Conservatives won Aylesford, Kingston, Greenwood, and Kings Sub A both times.  Everything else Liberal both times.

Lunenburg County

Liberals           39% (-4)
Conservatives  38% (+12)
NDP                20% (+4)
Greens            3% (-9)
PPC                 0% (-1)

Conservatives picked up Chester and Lunenburg MD, everything else went Liberal

Pictou County

Liberals           46% (-1)
Conservatives  34% (+3)
NDP                13% (+1)
PPC                 4% (+1)
Greens            1% (-7)

Liberals won all but New Glasgow and Pictou were landslides, rest were much more competitive.

Queens County

Conservatives 48% (+15)
Liberals           32% (-7)
NDP               17% (+1)
Greens            2% (-8)
PPC                0% (-1)

Both Liverpool and rest of Queens were Tory pickups

Richmond County

Liberals          45% (+4)
Conservatives 38% (+6)
NDP               12% (-1)
PPC                5% (-1)
Greens           0% (-7)

Liberals swept here

Shelburne County

Conservatives 68% (+22)
Liberals          20% (-13)
NDP               10% (-1)
Greens            2% (-5)
PPC                0% (-1)

Barrington and Clark's Habour were Tory holds, other three pick ups and all Tories over 50%,  In Barrington Tories got 78% while in Clark's Habour got 83% so more Prairie like numbers, but that was more over Lobster fishery dispute, not area being hardcore conservative.  Bernadette Jordan was hated in this part of riding over this.

Victoria County

Liberals           40% (+6)
Conservatives  39% (+11)
NDP                15% (-2)
PPC                 3% (+3)
Greens            2% (-7)

Conservatives flipped Victoria Sub B while Sub A stayed Liberal

Yarmouth County

Conservatives: 62% (+11)
Liberals           25% (-8)
NDP                 8% (-)
PPC                 4% (+4)
Greens            0% (-8)

Conservatives flipped Yarmouth, other two Conservative holds.  Conservatives got 76% in Argyle.

Overall thoughts are all politics is local seems to apply more here than most provinces.  South end largely due to local factors had Prairie like Tory margins.  Liberals though still outside south end were competitive in most of mainland Rural Nova Scotia unlike under Harper.  By same token Tories did much better in Cape Breton Island than under Harper and its sort of like Red Wall areas in UK and Obama-Trump counties in US.  Seems Sean Fraser's personal popularity helped him do well in a right leaning riding while Bernadette Jordan lost over her mishandling of lobster fishery dispute and Greg Kerr won mainly on his personal popularity.  Cumberland-Colchester likely flipped more over generic candidate.

[mileslunn]

Let's keep in mind that a *lot* of these results are due to "local conditions"--specific riding candidacies and campaigns, et al--so it's hazardous to make overly generic readings.  (Like, in N&L, the absence of Jack Harris hurt the NDP in St. John's relative to 2019--and in Long Range Mountains, the NDP might have backhandedly benefited from a CPC parachute in '19, while the Cons offered a more serious candidate/campaign in '21 and made it into more of a perceived "strategic" red vs blue race.)

True enough.  Unlike in provinces further West, local candidates still carry a lot of weight in Atlantic Canada.  As per comment on Nova Scotia that is especially true there.

[adma]

Let's keep in mind that a *lot* of these results are due to "local conditions"--specific riding candidacies and campaigns, et al--so it's hazardous to make overly generic readings.  (Like, in N&L, the absence of Jack Harris hurt the NDP in St. John's relative to 2019--and in Long Range Mountains, the NDP might have backhandedly benefited from a CPC parachute in '19, while the Cons offered a more serious candidate/campaign in '21 and made it into more of a perceived "strategic" red vs blue race.)

True enough.  Unlike in provinces further West, local candidates still carry a lot of weight in Atlantic Canada.  As per comment on Nova Scotia that is especially true there.

But it even goes for the West--for instance, once again as goes the NDP, they likely wouldn't have done as well in Penticton had Richard Cannings not had his foot in the door as the incumbent; and there was certainly an "Avi Lewis bump" (with an assist from generic Green collapse) in the places where he ran...

[mileslunn]

Let's keep in mind that a *lot* of these results are due to "local conditions"--specific riding candidacies and campaigns, et al--so it's hazardous to make overly generic readings.  (Like, in N&L, the absence of Jack Harris hurt the NDP in St. John's relative to 2019--and in Long Range Mountains, the NDP might have backhandedly benefited from a CPC parachute in '19, while the Cons offered a more serious candidate/campaign in '21 and made it into more of a perceived "strategic" red vs blue race.)

True enough.  Unlike in provinces further West, local candidates still carry a lot of weight in Atlantic Canada.  As per comment on Nova Scotia that is especially true there.

But it even goes for the West--for instance, once again as goes the NDP, they likely wouldn't have done as well in Penticton had Richard Cannings not had his foot in the door as the incumbent; and there was certainly an "Avi Lewis bump" (with an assist from generic Green collapse) in the places where he ran...

Local candidates do have impact in all places, just more so there.  Other is Territories which is mostly based on local candidate.  I think in rural areas local candidate plays bigger role than urban.  Its why Ruth Ellen Brousseau almost won in an area that went solidly CAQ provincially.

[adma]

Let's keep in mind that a *lot* of these results are due to "local conditions"--specific riding candidacies and campaigns, et al--so it's hazardous to make overly generic readings.  (Like, in N&L, the absence of Jack Harris hurt the NDP in St. John's relative to 2019--and in Long Range Mountains, the NDP might have backhandedly benefited from a CPC parachute in '19, while the Cons offered a more serious candidate/campaign in '21 and made it into more of a perceived "strategic" red vs blue race.)

True enough.  Unlike in provinces further West, local candidates still carry a lot of weight in Atlantic Canada.  As per comment on Nova Scotia that is especially true there.

But it even goes for the West--for instance, once again as goes the NDP, they likely wouldn't have done as well in Penticton had Richard Cannings not had his foot in the door as the incumbent; and there was certainly an "Avi Lewis bump" (with an assist from generic Green collapse) in the places where he ran...

Local candidates do have impact in all places, just more so there.  Other is Territories which is mostly based on local candidate.  I think in rural areas local candidate plays bigger role than urban.  Its why Ruth Ellen Brousseau almost won in an area that went solidly CAQ provincially.

But even in Nova Scotia, things are complicated--like as goes Barrington/Clark's Harbour, it's more that the Bernadette Jordan backlash compounded a tendency that had already been gestating in recent elections.  (And in fact, there *is* a under-the-radar hardcore conservative element--the CHP overperformed there in '06 (when they even won a poll!) and '08)

[mileslunn]

Ontario

Chatham-Kent

Conservatives 42% (-5)
Liberals          28% (-1)
NDP               15% (-2)
PPC                14% (+9)
Greens           2% (-3)

Greater Sudbury

Liberals             34% (-5)
NDP                  29% (-2)
Conservatives    28% (+7)
PPC                   7% (+5)
Greens               2% (-4)

Haldimand-Norfolk

Conservatives 47% (-)
Liberals          28% (+3)
NDP               13% (-2)
PPC                10% (+8)
Greens            0% (-8)

Conservatives won both Haldimand and Norfolk by similar margins

Hamilton

Liberals           36% (-1)
Conservatives  28% (+1)
NDP                27% (-1)
PPC                  6% (+2)
Greens             2% (-5)

Kawartha Lakes

Conservatives 53% (+3)
Liberals          22% (-3)
NDP               15% (-)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens           2% (-6)

Ottawa

Liberals           45% (-2)
Conservatives  30% (+2)
NDP                 19% (+3)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens            2% (-4)

Prince Edward County

Liberals           41% (-2)
Conservatives  38% (+4)
NDP                15% (-)
PPC                 3% (+1)
Greens             2% (-5)

Brant County

Conservatives 41% (-)
Liberals          28% (-2)
NDP               19% (-)
PPC                9% (+7)
Greens            3% (-3)

NDP wins Six nations Indian reserve, Conservatives win both Brant and Brantford.

Toronto

Liberals           52% (-2)
Conservatives  24% (+1)
NDP                18% (+2)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens            2% (-3)

Algoma District

Conservatives 36% (+4)
Liberals          32% (-2)
NDP               26% (-2)
PPC                5% (+3)
Greens           1% (-4)

Conservatives won Blind River (gain from NDP) Hilton, Johnson, Laird, Macdonald, Meredith & Adittional, The North Shore, Plummer Additional, Prince, St. Joseph, Tarbutt, Hilton Beach, Liberals won Sault Ste. Marie, NDP won Elliott Lake, Bruce Mines, Spanish, Thessalon, Debreuilville, Hornepayne, Jocelyn (gain from Tories), Wawa

Cochrane District

NDP                33% (-3)
Liberals           28% (-3)
Conservatives  26% (-)
PPC                 12% (+9)
Greens             0% (-4)

Liberals won Timmins (three way race), Hearst, NDP won Cochrane, Iroquois Falls (PPC got 20% here), Kapuskasing, Moosonee, Smooth Rock Falls (gain from Liberal), Fauquier-Strickland, Mattice-Val Cote, Moonbeam, Opasatika, Val Rita-Harty, Conservatives won Black River-Matheson

Kenora District

Conservatives: 42% (+9)
NDP                31% (+1)
Liberals           20% (-9)
PPC                 6% (+5)
Greens             1% (-4)

Conservatives flipped Sioux Lookout from NDP, All incorporated municipalities went Conservative but NDP won most unorganized areas especially in northern communities.  In southern parts Tories mostly got over 50% and combined right over 60%

Manitoulin District

NDP                44% (-6)
Liberals           25% (+8)
Conservatives  24% (-)
PPC                 4% (+3)
Greens            2% (-5)

Tories won Cockburn Island but fewer than 10 votes.  Flipped Gordon/Barrie Island but only by one vote.  NDP won Burpee and Mills by only one vote over Tories.  NDP won everything else.

Nipissing District

Liberals           40% (-3)
Conservatives  30% (+5)
NDP                23% (+2)
PPC                 7% (+5)
Greens            0% (-6)

Temagami, Bonfield, Tory flip from Liberals, Tories won Calvin, Chisholm, Papineau-Cameron, South Algonquin.  Liberals won all the rest.

Parry Sound District

Conservatives 48% (+4)
Liberals          23% (-6)
NDP               16% (+3)
PPC                8% (+7)
Greens           4% (-8)

Parry Sound was a Tory pick up from Liberals, every other municipality including unorganized went Conservative.  NDP won Indian Reserves.

Rainy River District

Conservatives 38% (-2)
NDP               29% (-1)
Liberals          23% (-)
PPC                8% (+6)
Greens            1% (-3)

Conservatives surprisingly won every single municipality.  Atikokan and Fort Frances were closest as won on splits but still went Conservative both times.

Sudbury District

NDP                38% (-1)
Conservatives  34% (-1)
Liberals           15% (-3)
PPC                 10% (+8)
Greens             2% (-3)

Liberals won French River, St. Charles, and Killarney, Tories flip Markstay-Warren from Liberals (despite PPC getting 16%), everything else went NDP

Thunder Bay District

Liberals           39% (-2)
NDP                28% (+4)
Conservatives  25% (-1)
PPC                 6% (+4)
Greens             2% (-5)

Conservatives won Conmee, Dorion, Gillies, Neebing, Nipigon (Tory pick up from Liberals), O'Connor, Oliver-Paipoonge, NDP flipped Terrace bay from Liberals everything else went Liberal.  Ironically enough PPC got in double digits in most Tories won.  Seems rural areas just west of Thunder Bay are fairly conservative.

Timiskaming District

NDP               32% (-6)
Conservatives 29% (+2)
Liberals          27% (+1)
PPC                12% (+8)
Greens            0% (-4)

Liberals won Temiskaming Shores, Cobalt, Coleman, NDP won Thornloe Village, Englehart, Kirkland Lake, Armstrong, Brethour, Casey, Evanturel, Gauthier, Hillard, Hudson, Kerns, Larder Lake, Matchewan (PPC got 31% here), McGarry, Harley and Harris (Pick up from Tories), Conservatives won Latchford, Chamberlain, James and Charlton & Dack Conservative pick up from NDP

Durham Regional Municipality

Liberals           39% (-2)
Conservatives  38% (+3)
NDP                17% (-)
PPC                 4% (+2)
Greens            1% (-4)

Liberals won Pickering, Ajax, and Whitby.  Conservatives won Oshawa, Uxbridge, Scugog, Clarington, and Brock.  Liberals got over 50% in both Ajax and Pickering while Conservatives in Brock, Scugog, and Uxbridge.  And interesting side note, Doug Ford PCs flipped Oshawa from NDP in 2022 (part of municipality in Durham)

Halton Regional Municipality

Liberals          45% (-2)
Conservatives 39% (+1)
NDP               10% (+2)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-4)

Liberals won Burlington & Oakville with plurality while over 50% in Milton.  Tories won Halton Hills with over 50%.

Muskoka District

Conservatives 48% (+8)
Liberals          22% (-9)
NDP               17% (+6)
PPC                7% (+7)
Greens           6% (-10)

It seems like in many touristy areas, O'Toole's more moderate style of conservatism helped.  Tories won all six municipalities this time while in 2019 Bracebridge was only that went Liberal.  Wahta Mohawk Territory had too few votes for Elections Canada to publish for confidentiality reasons so no idea how it voted but my guess is NDP but who knows.

Niagara Regional Municipality

Conservatives 37% (+1)
Liberals          34% (-1)
NDP               19% (-)
PPC                 8% (+7)
Greens            2% (-4)

Conservatives won Niagara Falls, Port Colborne (gain from Liberals), Fort Erie, Grimsby, Lincoln, Niagara on the Lake (gain from Liberals), Pelham, Wainfleet, and West Lincoln

Liberals won St. Catherines, Thorold, and Welland

Oxford County

Conservatives 47% (-1)
Liberals          21% (+2)
NDP               18% (-2)
PPC                11% (+8)
Greens            3% (-5)

Not surprisingly Tories won all municipalities here

Peel Regional Municipality

Liberals           50% (-1)
Conservatives  33% (+3)
NDP                13% (-1)
PPC                 3% (+2)
Greens             1% (-3)

Liberals easily win Brampton and Mississauga while Tories win Caledon

Waterloo Regional Municipality

Liberals           36% (-5)
Conservatives  32% (+2)
NDP                16% (+2)
Greens            10% (-3)
PPC                 6% (+4)

Liberals won Cambridge, Kitchener, and Waterloo,  Conservatives won North Dumfries, Wellesley, Wilmot, and Woolwich

York Regional Municipality

Liberals           45% (+3)
Conservatives  41% (-1)
NDP                 8% (-)
PPC                  4% (+3)
Greens             1% (-3)

Liberals won Aurora, Markham, Newmarket, Richmond Hill (flip from Tories), Whitchurch-Stouffville

Conservatives won East Gwilimbury, Georgina, King, Vaughan (flip from Liberals)

Bruce County

Conservatives 47% (+3)
Liberals          30% (-7)
NDP               15% (+3)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens           1% (-4)

Conservatives won all municipalities in 2021 while in 2019 Liberals won Kindcardine and Saugeen Shores.  Suggests O'Toole was more acceptable to upper middle class college educated types as many work at Bruce nuclear power plant in those two.

Dufferin County

Conservatives 50% (+6)
Liberals          27% (-1)
NDP               11% (-)
PPC                7% (+4)
Greens           5% (-9)

Tories won every municipality both times

Elgin County

Conservatives 50% (-2)
Liberals          17% (-4)
NDP               16% (-2)
PPC                13% (+11)
Greens            2% (-4)

Conservatives won all municipalities both times.  PPC got over 20% in Malahide, Aylmer, and Bayham.  I believe all have large Dutch Reformed as well as during lockdowns this where you had the church that got national media attention for breaking it.

Essex County

NDP                33% (-1)
Conservatives  31% (-1)
Liberals           24% (-5)
PPC                 10% (+8)
Greens             1% (-2)

NDP won Windsor, Liberals won Tecumseh, everything else went Conservative.  PPC topped 20% in Leamington and it seems like a really economically depressed area thus ripe for populism

Frontenac County

Liberals           39% (-4)
Conservatives  28% (+4)
NDP                27% (+5)
PPC                 4% (+2)
Greens            2% (+7)

Conservatives won North Frontenac, Central Frontenac, and South Frontenac.  Liberals won Kingston and Frontenac Islands

Grey County

Conservatives 48% (+3)
Liberals          26% (-6)
NDP               13% (+2)
PPC                8% (+5)
Greens           3% (-7)

Conservatives won all municipalities in 2021 but in 2019 Liberals won Owen Sound and Blue Mountains

Haliburton County

Conservatives 49% (+3)
Liberals          27% (-2)
NDP               14% (+1)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens           3% (-8)

Conservatives won all municipalities both times

Hastings County

Conservatives 45% (+4)
Liberals          33% (-4)
NDP               13% (-2)
PPC                6% (+4)
Greens            2% (-4)

Liberals won Belleville and Tyenindaga Mohawk Territory, Tories picked up Desoronto and Tyenindiga, rest were Conservative both times

Huron County

Conservatives 55% (+1)
Liberals          22% (-5)
NDP               15% (+2)
PPC                8% (+6)
Greens           0% (-4)

Tories pick up Goderich from Liberals, all the rest were Conservative both times

Lambton County

Conservatives 47% (-3)
NDP               21% (-)
Liberals          19% (-2)
PPC                11% (+8)
Greens           1% (-4)

Conservatives won every municipality both times.  PPC got 20% in Dawn-Euphemia (which is least densely populated municipality outside Northern & Eastern Ontario.  Combined right is 79% in Oil Springs which was highest in Ontario and based on name no surprise.

Lanark County

Conservatives 52% (-)
Liberals          24% (+3)
NDP               14% (+1)
PPC                6% (+4)
Greens            3% (-9)

Conservatives won every municipality here

Leeds & Grenville United Counties

Conservatives 51% (+2)
Liberals          25% (-1)
NDP               15% (+1)
PPC                6% (+4)
Greens            4% (-5)

Gananoque went Liberal while everything else went Conservative.

Lennox & Addington County

Conservatives 40% (+3)
Liberals          39% (-1)
NDP               13% (-2)
PPC                5% (+3)
Greens            2% (-4)

Liberals won Loyalist both times.  Tories won Greater Nepanee and Addington Highlands both times, while Stone Mills flipped to Toriesi n 2021

Middlesex County

Conservatives 33% (+3)
Liberals          31% (-5)
NDP               28% (+3)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens           1% (-5)

Liberals win London, Tories everything else while NDP wins Indian reserves.  PPC gets over 20% in Newbury.  London is close three way Lib 34 NDP 30 CPC 29

Northumberland County

Conservatives 43% (+4)
Liberals          35% (-3)
NDP               14% (+1)
PPC                6% (+4)
Greens            3% (-5)

Liberals win Cobourg, Tories flip Port Hope while everything else Conservative both times

Perth County

Conservatives 46% (+3)
Liberals          27% (-2)
NDP               19% (+3)
PPC                9% (+8)
Greens           0% (-9)

Liberals won Stratford, Tories everything else.  Ironically Doug Ford in 2022 won Stratford on split votes

Peterborough County

Conservatives  41% (+5)
Liberals           34% (-4)
NDP                18% (+1)
PPC                 5% (+4)
Greens            2% (-5)

Liberals won Peterborough everything else went Conservative.  Ford in 2022 did win Peterborough but on split votes at only 35%

Prescott & Russell United Counties

Liberals           48% (-2)
Conservatives  31% (-3)
NDP                11% (+1)
PPC                 7% (+5)
Greens            2% (-1)

Despite going Conservative under Harper and Ford provincially, Liberals won every municipality here.  Seems like in New Brunswick Francophones outside Quebec went heavily Liberal.  Liberals got 60% in Hawkesbury which was their best municipality in Ontario although did better in some Toronto ridings.

Renfrew County

Conservatives 49% (-4)
NDP               21% (+6)
Liberals          19% (-1)
PPC                8% (+6)
Greens           2% (-3)

NDP flips Deep River from Liberals everything else goes Conservative.  Ironically Ford manages to win Deep River both times

Simcoe County

Conservatives 46% (+3)
Liberals          29% (-2)
NDP               15% (+1)
PPC                7% (+5)
Greens           2% (-8)

Liberals held Penetanguishene, while Tories flipped Collingwood.  Everything else was a Tory hold

Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry United Counties

Conservatives 54% (+1)
Liberals          25% (-1)
NDP               11% (-3)
PPC                8% (+6)
Greens           2% (-2)

NDP won Akwesasne Reserve, everything else went Conservative.  South Dundas along with Oil Springs was one of only two municipalities Tories cracked 70% mark.  

Wellington County

Conservatives 36% (+5)
Liberals          35% (+1)
NDP               17% (+6)
PPC                6% (+4)
Greens           6% (-15)

Liberals won Guelph, Tories won everything else

Overall Liberals won by winning in main cities while Tories dominated rural, small towns and exurbs.  O'Toole went backwards in heavily Chinese areas but in other suburbs and urban areas largely went up but not enough to flip seats.  Rural areas were mixed but more touristy or with lots of ex-urban areas went up while more rural socially conservative and economically struggling went down slightly but combined right up quite a bit as PPC gained most here.  NDP still had some residual strength in working class areas as well as Northern Ontario but less so than past.

[mileslunn]

Here is Prince Edward Island.  Doesn't give by Lots but Conservatives did have pockets of support in each of the counties.  North end of Queens, West end of Prince but overall Liberals generally dominated.

Kings County

Liberals           50% (-1)
Conservatives  32% (+1)
NDP                8% (+3)
PPC                 4% (+4)
Greens             4% (-7)

Queens County

Liberals          46% (+2)
Conservatives 31% (+7)
Greens           10% (-13)
NDP               10% (+1)
PPC                2% (+2)

Conservatives won Miltonvale Park (gain from Liberals), Hunter River (also gain from Liberals), Kensington (also another Liberal gain but benefitted from strong splits)

Prince County

Liberals          44% (+4)
Conservatives 32% (-1)
Greens           10% (-11)
NDP               9% (+3)
PPC                5% (+5)

Conservatives won O'Leary both times

Greens took big hit and looks like Liberals main beneficiary but some went NDP.  Tories gained slightly from O'Toole's moderation but much like elsewhere it was very small, nothing significant suggesting his moderation had some mild impact but not near what he hoped.