2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Geoffrey Howe]

What did Bernadette Jordan do to annoy the fishermen?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Miramichi-Grand Lake only real swing of the 4 Tory seats in New Brunswick.  The three Baptist belt ones much like Hastings-Lennox & Addington in Ontario and Kelowna-Lake Country in BC were one offs in 2015 which few expected to go Liberal so fact they've swung back to Tories is no surprise.

The PPC had a very good showing in those seats while the Tories kept up their numbers (cf. Prairie seats where the PPC rise closely matches the CPC fall). Not sure if you should call that shifting right, but it is notable.

[adma]

On Liberal side biggest shock was picking up Richmond Centre which I heard was not on their target list.  But it seems both parties missed the massive shift in Chinese-Canadian community from Tories to Liberals. 

I suppose Markham-Unionville would be the Richmond Centre of Eastern Canada.

[MaxQue]

What did Bernadette Jordan do to annoy the fishermen?

In short, nothing (when they wanted her to do something).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Mi%27kmaq_lobster_dispute

[DC Al Fine]

What did Bernadette Jordan do to annoy the fishermen?

To elaborate on what MaxQue posted, in the 1990's, there were two Supreme Court cases which affirmed:

a) First Nations have the right to earn a "moderate livelihood" from fishing
b) The Government can "restrict treaty rights, such as fishing rights, for conservation reasons or other justified grounds."

In classic Canadian fashion, neither the courts, nor Parliament have ever defined what those above quoted phrases mean, which has led to periodic disputes.

Last year, the Sipekne'katik First Nation launched a commercial lobster fishery in southwestern Nova Scotia which operated outside the federally regulated lobster season. The Department of Fisheries has largely sat on it's hands about the issue despite escalating protests, acts of vigilantism, and RCMP arrests for selling lobster caught on "Ceremonial" licenses.

[Benjamin Frank]

While this doesn't alter the overall trend in Northern Ontario to the Conservatives, it does explain a little of why the Conservatives won Kenora so handily.

Elections Canada admits fault for First Nations voting issues
Elections Canada says ‘confusion’ between their staff and three First Nation communities in the Kenora area lead to 1,600 community members not being able to vote on the night of the 2021 federal election.

https://www.kenoraonline.com/articles/elections-canada-admits-fault-for-first-nations-voting-issues

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I'd probably have to look at the poll-by-poll results to confirm or debunk this, but based on the results since 2004, it does feel like Kenora has a not necessarily large but still electorally decisive racist tendency - a few percentage points' worth of people who will vote Tory when the NDP candidate is First Nations but are still open to a white Dipper.

[lilTommy]

While this doesn't alter the overall trend in Northern Ontario to the Conservatives, it does explain a little of why the Conservatives won Kenora so handily.

Elections Canada admits fault for First Nations voting issues
Elections Canada says ‘confusion’ between their staff and three First Nation communities in the Kenora area lead to 1,600 community members not being able to vote on the night of the 2021 federal election.

https://www.kenoraonline.com/articles/elections-canada-admits-fault-for-first-nations-voting-issues

Well not only; the Liberal vote crashed by 10% and went almost exclusively to the CPC. The CPC saw a +9% increase while the NDP saw a +1%. IF even all 1600 votes went to the NDP, which First Nations tend to vote overwhelmingly NDP (or sometimes Liberal) that would put their vote at about 9400 vs the CPC with 11100. So much closer but it was the bulk of Liberals shifting to the Conservatives, probably because CPC was the incumbent, Nault was not running for the LPC and provincially about half the federal riding is held by the PCs, the Kenora-Dryden area in the south which is the bulk of the population.
Kenora is looking more and more like Sault. Ste Marie in their voting patterns: a large bulk of NDP voters, but fairly stagnant, or they have a ceiling of sorts and a majority of Liberal-Conservative swing voters, a sort of anti-NDP voting block. Not saying the NDP can't win here, they just need a specific kind of campaign or candidate to attract a more moderate or populist voter who more naturally sides with the Liberal/Conservatives.

Note: I grew up in a small city that bordered a large reservation; there is an underlying racist/discriminatory sentiment in some people, many older folks. This has likely gotten better back home (maybe worse) but it was not uncommon to hear in passing people say First nations were lazy, drunks, all smugglers, that kind of nasty talk. Even from people who otherwise seemed fairly progressive. In terms of Kenora this is the second high profile Indigenous candidate the NDP have ran and I was happy to see that, but there is this issue they have to face... sadly ALL minority candidates (BIPOC, LGBTQ+, women) still face some hate.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd probably have to look at the poll-by-poll results to confirm or debunk this, but based on the results since 2004, it does feel like Kenora has a not necessarily large but still electorally decisive racist tendency - a few percentage points' worth of people who will vote Tory when the NDP candidate is First Nations but are still open to a white Dipper.

Yup. Probably a good thing then that the provincial riding was split in two, giving the Indigenous population their own riding.

[mileslunn]

Here is some interesting stats.

Over 70%:

3 Conservatives - Best riding Souris-Moose Mountain at 76.38%

That is a huge drop from 2019, but when you consider how well PPC and Maverick Party to a lesser extent did, there were several ridings they got over 70% if you take combined right.

Combined right:  21 (1 MB, 7 SK, 12 AB, 1 BC), over 80% 12 (4 SK, 8 AB)

Over 60%

Liberals: 8 (1 NB, 2 QC, 5 ON)  - Best riding St. Leonard-St. Michel at 69.38%

Conservatives: 23 (8 SK, 14 AB, 1 BC)

NDP: 1 - Edmonton-Stratchona 60.68% so best showing in Alberta, which must be a first, but also Notley's home turf too.

Combined right: 37 (2 ON, 5 MB, 8 SK, 21 AB, 1 BC)

Over 50%:

Liberals: 52  (2 NL, 1 NS, 1 PEI, 3 NB, 15 QC, 28 ON, 1 MB, 1 BC)

Conservatives: 51 (1 NS, 1 NB, 6 QC, 6 ON, 4 MB, 8 SK, 23 AB, 2 BC)

BQ: 12 - best riding Avignon-La Mitis-Matapedia-Matane - 59.79%

NDP: 4 (1 MB, 1 AB, 2 BC)

Combined right: 97 (2 NS, 3 NB, 8 QC, 28 ON, 5 MB, 14 SK, 27 AB, 10 BC)

So interesting Liberals got over 50% in one more than Tories and Ontario despite 4 point lead, way more over 50% so with voter efficiency, wonder if had something to do with turnout in that Liberal ones had lower turnouts than Conservative ones thus efficient Liberal vote?

Over 40%

Liberals: 126 (7 NL, 7 NS, 4 PEI, 5 NB, 26 QC, 63 ON, 4 MB, 1 AB, 9 BC)

Conservatives: 118 (2 NL, 3 NS, 4 NB, 10 QC, 37 ON, 7 MB, 14 SK, 29 AB, 12 BC)

BQ: 27

NDP: 22 (1 QC, 5 ON, 3 MB, 2 AB, 10 BC, NU)

Combined right: 146 (3 NL, 3 NS, 4 NB, 10 QC, 57 ON, 7 MB, 14 SK, 31 AB, 17 BC)

So as you can see NDP and Tories pretty close in seats to 40% while Liberals way under so this partly explains voter efficiency as usually 40% is typically what is needed to win a seat on average.

Over 30%

Liberals: 190 (7 NL, 4 PEI, 11 NS, 7 NB, 42 QC, 91 ON, 5 MB, 3 AB, 17 BC, 3 Territories)

Conservatives: 186 (5 NL, 6 NS, 4 PEI, 6 NB, 11 QC, 74 ON, 8 MB, 14 SK, 33 AB, 25 BC)

BQ: 41

NDP: 48 (1 NL, 2 NS, 3 QC, 13 ON, 3 MB, 4 SK, 3 AB, 17 BC, 2 Terr)

Green Party 2 - best riding Saanich-Gulf Islands 37.62%

Combined right: 221 (5 NL, 4 PEI, 8 NS, 7 NB, 13 QC, 95 ON, 11 MB, 14 SK, 34 AB, 29 BC, YK)

So just from this you can see even Liberals and Tories barely get over majority thus why majorities may be exception rather than norm in future.

Over 20%

Liberals: 261 (32 Atlantic, 62 QC, 115 ON, 8 MB, 2 SK, 11 AB, 28 BC, 3 Terr)

Conservatives: 255 (5 NL, 9 NS, 4 PEI, 8 NB, 20 QC, 111 ON, 12 MB, 14 SK, 34 AB, 37 BC, YK)

BQ: 61

NDP: 100 (2 NL, 4 NS, 6 QC, 34 ON, 8 MB, 5 SK, 10 AB, 28 BC, 3 Terr)

Green Party: 3

PPC 1 - Portage-Lisgar 21.58%

Combined right: 267 (7 NL, 9 NS, 4 PEI, 9 NB, 24 QC, 115 ON, 12 MB, 14 SK, 34 AB, 38 BC, YK)

Over 10% - Minimum needed to get deposit back

Liberals: 315 (32 Atlantic, 78 QC, 121 ON, 14 MB, 7 SK, 21 AB, 39 BC, 3 Terr) - 23 Liberal candidates failed to get deposit back, all in the three most Western provinces.  Souris-Moose Mountain worst riding at 4.16%

Conservatives: 318 (31 Atlantic, 59 QC, 121 ON, 104 West, 3 Terr) - 20 failed to get back all 19 in Quebec while one riding in Nova Scotia didn't have Tory candidate as pulled at last minute.  Worst riding was Laurier-Sainte Marie at 3.36%

BQ: 72 (only six did they fall short, Mount Royal at 3.93% worst riding)

NDP: 260 (5 NL, 11 NS, 1 PEI, 8 NB, 24 QC, 107 ON, 14 MB, 13 SK, 32 AB, 42 BC, 3 Terr) so 78 NDP candidates failed to get deposit back, majority in Quebec, province that was their strongest 10 years ago.  Worst riding was Megantic-L'Erable at 2.82%

Green Party: 6 (1 PEI, 1 NB, 1 ON, 3 BC)

PPC: 23 (1 NS, 1 QC, 8 ON, 3 MB, 1 SK, 8 AB, 1 BC)

Independents: 2 (Yukon and NWT)

[Philly D.]

Just a heads up, the official poll-by-poll results are finally available from Elections Canada. You can find some maps at stephentaylor.ca.

Looking around, here are a few observations (some made by others):

- In the seats the Liberals did surprisingly well because of the Chinese pop, they absolutely dominated the election day polls.
- REB did very well in the Maskinongé part of Berthier-Maskinongé; it was the Berthier part, especially the 2015 additions, that sank her.
- Kevin Vuong got 32% on e-day.
- The NDP in Quebec won the Plateau Mont-Royal, Saint-Roch in Quebec City and downtown Sherbrooke on e-day.

There's no doubt much more to find. Have fun!

[King of Kensington]

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.

[adma]

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.

Quickly looking, he actually finished 2nd (ahead of the Cons) when it came to e-day ballots.

[Oryxslayer]

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.

I seem to recall seeing a map of that one on twitter - the Libs won the center and inland, the NDP won the north, and Tories won the urban/suburban far south of the seat.

EDIT: found it.

https://twitter.com/riding_day/status/1512536939496452104?s=20&t=fQkrBzYlThZ...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.

I seem to recall seeing a map of that one on twitter - the Tories won the center and inland, the NDP won the north, and Libs won the urban/suburban far south of the seat.

What sorts of people live in each of those parts of the seat?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NorthernDagger1/status/1513192403775238148?s=20&t=fQkrBz...

Another one of the interesting results maps.

[adma]

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.

I seem to recall seeing a map of that one on twitter - the Tories won the center and inland, the NDP won the north, and Libs won the urban/suburban far south of the seat.

What sorts of people live in each of those parts of the seat?

Well, that was a pretty aggressively dumbed-down map that anyone could have educated-guessed on.

But blue = W Van = affluent-class suburbia.  Orange = Sunshine Coast = "hippie types" (and Avi himself).  Red = Sea To Sky Country = ski and resort country, Whistler et al (though w/more of a historical blue-collar streak in Squamish that's made for high NDP figures there over time)

[adma]

One glitch to report on: Etobicoke Centre registered as the best PPC riding in Toronto, but there are a couple of very conspicuous tab errors (Poll 98 and Advance Poll 606) where the CPC and PPC numbers were almost surely transposed.  So the "official" result is Lib 48/CPC 34.9/NDP 10.1/PPC 7; but the "corrected" result would have PPC at 5.8% and CPC at 36.1%.  (Which'd still make it the only 5%+ PPC result in the 416.)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.

I seem to recall seeing a map of that one on twitter - the Tories won the center and inland, the NDP won the north, and Libs won the urban/suburban far south of the seat.

What sorts of people live in each of those parts of the seat?

Well, that was a pretty aggressively dumbed-down map that anyone could have educated-guessed on.

But blue = W Van = affluent-class suburbia.  Orange = Sunshine Coast = "hippie types" (and Avi himself).  Red = Sea To Sky Country = ski and resort country, Whistler et al (though w/more of a historical blue-collar streak in Squamish that's made for high NDP figures there over time)

Well, that was unnecessary, especially since Oryx hadn't yet edited the map into his post when I asked. But thank you for the breakdown anyway - I was particularly interested in teasing out how much of a blue-collar streak Lewis would have had to work with.

[adma]

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.

I seem to recall seeing a map of that one on twitter - the Tories won the center and inland, the NDP won the north, and Libs won the urban/suburban far south of the seat.

What sorts of people live in each of those parts of the seat?

Well, that was a pretty aggressively dumbed-down map that anyone could have educated-guessed on.

But blue = W Van = affluent-class suburbia.  Orange = Sunshine Coast = "hippie types" (and Avi himself).  Red = Sea To Sky Country = ski and resort country, Whistler et al (though w/more of a historical blue-collar streak in Squamish that's made for high NDP figures there over time)

Well, that was unnecessary, especially since Oryx hadn't yet edited the map into his post when I asked. But thank you for the breakdown anyway - I was particularly interested in teasing out how much of a blue-collar streak Lewis would have had to work with.

Yeah, I wasn't addressing the "dumbed-down" assessment at you, or to a degree Oryx.  However, West Van et al depicted as if it were 3 polling stations is like an 3 1/2-year-old's stick-figure-drawing rendition of a polling map--particularly within a riding whose electoral "parts" are so clearly delineated as that...

[adma]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

[Oryxslayer]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

Maybe we can chalk that up to Bernier's semi-unique position as a Francophone bringing a message geared towards non-urban and non-Quebec Canadians.

[adma]

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

Maybe we can chalk that up to Bernier's semi-unique position as a Francophone bringing a message geared towards non-urban and non-Quebec Canadians.

I'm also wondering how much "mobilization" there was within the RC Church community.