2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Lief 🗽]

Starting to look real ugly for the Liberals. Ugh.

[Oryxslayer]

Just as a note: If Conservatives take 8 or more in Atlantic Canada, I think they are in play. 10 or more and I think they are on track to win the night.

Con +7 in Atlantic was the my number for a 140-130ish split in favor of Cons, and Atlantic was the key to that result.

[jaichind]

PPC vote share in places like NB looks fairly respectable.  Could be a trend for the rest of Canada.

[Oryxslayer]

NDP now ahead in Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook as well, early precinct warning as usual, but it's a three way split presently.

[Vosem]

With 30-50% of the results in, Bonavista, LRM, and Coast of Bays are all settling into a pattern where no party ever manages more than a 3% lead either direction. Tories weren't really expected to be competitive anywhere on N&L, so good for them.

Labrador has a lot less in but Liberals have maintained 20+ point leads there. Not much in St. John's East either but there's been a consistent narrow NDP lead there.

Too little in for the rest of Atlantic Canada to say much, but the early result of the NDP being up in Dartmouth-Cole Harbor is funny and possibly an early good sign for the NDP.

[Crumpets]

Aaaand LPC back ahead in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. Conservatives still ahead in Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame.

[Holmes]

The mail ballots are a big question mark but this isn’t looking like a Liberal majority.

[Mexican Wolf]

Beausejour called for the Liberals.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The mail ballots are a big question mark but this isn’t looking like a Liberal majority.

Justin Trudeau has the political instincts of a fourth grader.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How is it looking like compared to 2019(with similar amount of votes in these ridings)

[Crumpets]

The mail ballots are a big question mark but this isn’t looking like a Liberal majority.

Justin Trudeau has the political instincts of a fourth grader.

That's called "populism."

[Oryxslayer]

The mail ballots are a big question mark but this isn’t looking like a Liberal majority.

Also on that point - the in-person votes which we know are more Tory than the topline. For those in the know: are these released as 1 large poll or are they added to the election day in each poll as everything is counted. Cause these votes are counted a bit in advance and I though they would all drop instantly.

[Vosem]

Beausejour called for the Liberals.

PPC on low double digits in the early results from English-speaking ridings in New Brunswick.

[Vosem]

Tories hold West Nova and Tobique-Mactaquac.

Lib/NDP trading leads back and forth in Dartmouth-Cole Harbor and Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook; currently both Liberal, though. Libs catching up in St. John's East, too.

[Crumpets]

Liberals are now up 5% in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, so that may be slipping away for Tories, but who knows at this point.

[Oryxslayer]

How is it looking like compared to 2019(with similar amount of votes in these ridings)

Tory's way up, Libs stagnant. Tory's were actually ahead in NS when CBC showed a vote chart, with the Green "Tory on Bicycles" 2019 vote going to the Blues.

Currently its:

44.34% Lib

35.85% Con

14.72% NDP

In 2019 Cons were under 30% in the sum of all 4 provinces.

[Vosem]

Of the seats reporting so far, Cumberland-Colchester looks like the likeliest Tory gain; although not much is in yet with every update the Tory has remained double-digits ahead of the Liberal. It was also just 37%-36% Liberal over Tory in 2019, so if the Tories are really going to make any actual gains in the Atlantic provinces this is where they're going to start.

EDIT: Labrador and Bonavista-Burin-Trinity (!!) called for the Liberals. Bold in Bonavista, since their lead there is just 47%-42% with only 51% counted.

[jaichind]

LPC vote share seems to be lower than 2019.  This is pretty bad news for them when the GPC vote share collapsed which would mean CPC and NDP must have gained from 2019 even factoring in PPC.

[Mike88]

Bonavista-Burin-Trinity seems to be a hold for the Libs. However, Long Rage Mountains is still very close, as is Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame. Both are still very open.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Remember we have no mail-in ballots resulsts which exepected to skew liberal yet.

[BigSerg]

Tobique—Mactaquac!!!!!

[Pericles]

How bad is the swing so far? Atlantic Canada does tend to be an 'elastic' region.

[Holmes]

St. John’s East looks like it’s about to flip, which sucks.

[Vosem]

How bad is the swing so far? Atlantic Canada does tend to be an 'elastic' region.

Doesn't actually look *that* strong so far outside of Newfoundland, and even there it doesn't seem like it's going to reward the Tories with many seats.

Libs take the lead in St. John's East.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Cmon Justin, I don’t like you but you’re the best option out there