American elections with a continued cold war
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:59:04 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  American elections with a continued cold war
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: American elections with a continued cold war  (Read 487 times)
CEO Mindset
penttilinkolafan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 925
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 18, 2021, 09:59:26 AM »

So, no gorbachev but you get someone willing to tinker around enough to keep the soviets afloat to the present. Not "keep up or surpass the west" but keeping the ussr+warsaw pact around as a thing and able to stir the pot in the third world.

How do US politics realign differently than in our world? Besides the obvious stuff like HW winning in 1992 and Clinton not getting near the nomination then because he's not "serious" enough. Besides HW Bush winning reelection in '92, California shifting D slower(no big 80s or 90s base closures+defense contractor factories remaining in place) and the US/broader west's capitalist classes not able to get as greedy/short term minded with a communist threat in being to keep an eye on. I've got my own ideas besides these OBVIOUS ones, but am curious for how others think it'd go.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2021, 10:49:37 AM »

The latest possible POD would be Romanov becoming the Soviet leader in 1985. Grishin seems like too much of a hardliner and Reagan would probably push the button if they butted heads.

Assuming the Gulf War still happens like OTL, the only difference in 1992 would be Clinton (yes, still Clinton, neither Cuomo nor any of the other bigshots would run for the same reasons) getting fried way more on his lack of foreign policy experience. He probably still wins if his VP can shore that up, but it's closer. The Yugoslav Wars may be a proxy war, so that's something he could make or break.

The PNAC neocon clique wouldn't exist as we know it without the US' status as sole superpower (although it would be stronger and the Soviet Union would be somewhat diminished), so the Republicans look a little different by the end of the 1990s. Bush probably still gets the Republican nomination in 2000 as a popular scion, although he may not have Cheney. No 9/11, no War on Terror, some kind of dotcom crash would still happen, and 2004 is where things get unclear. Definitely no Obama or Trump, though, in any case.

The Soviets and China might reconcile in the 21st century and the post-Reagan detente would thaw. Any presidents elected in the 2010s will be way more hawkish than we've been used to.
Logged
CEO Mindset
penttilinkolafan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 925
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2021, 02:12:04 PM »

Eh, for starters imo no dukakis but instead someone more credible who probably loses. Hm, you might see clinton as VP for Bentsen or whoever runs in '88.
No dukakis loss to react against imo makes clinton even less credible. My guess is his atl record of being a scandal-prone vp candidate in '88 is enough to sink him in the primaries.
I guess Bradley or Nunn is the dem who loses in '92.

yugoslav war? maybe, although I guess the soviets help shore up the yugoslav government with yugoslavia becoming a soviet ally again.

Any war on terror/muslim issues would probably be hitting the ussr/china due to well, the afghanistan thing along with how china treats the uyghurs
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2021, 03:28:14 PM »


Why? And why wouldn't he pick Bentsen as his running mate? 1988 wouldn't look much different, no one knew the Soviet Union would be falling then either.
Logged
CEO Mindset
penttilinkolafan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 925
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2021, 05:00:17 PM »

eh, gorby was major de-escalating things by then. sure, the ussr wasn't visibly falling then but the cold war was in the process of severely de-escalating. remember, the russians were withdrawing from afghanistan then.

in this atl? no withdrawal and reagan's approach got well jack sh**t in resuilts
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2021, 11:44:46 AM »

eh, gorby was major de-escalating things by then. sure, the ussr wasn't visibly falling then but the cold war was in the process of severely de-escalating. remember, the russians were withdrawing from afghanistan then.

in this atl? no withdrawal and reagan's approach got well jack sh**t in resuilts

That's not why Dukakis got nominated, and a continuing Cold War certainly wouldn't make him pick Clinton as running mate. Saying "eh" doesn't make it true.
Logged
MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -0.65, S: -1.57

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2021, 11:53:40 PM »

Same presidents different margins
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2021, 06:22:12 PM »

I don't think Bill Clinton would've been the nominee in 1992 with a continued Cold War, especially if there's no Gulf War. Another Democrat defeating Bush in 1992, or Bush winning is gonna have a huge impact on elections after that.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.026 seconds with 12 queries.