VA- Wapo/schar school poll- McAuliffe +3 among LV, +6 among RV

[Skill and Chance]

This is nothing if not consistent!

[Skill and Chance]

That's two Polls in a row showing a close Race! Bidens Approvals must be underwater otherwise this wouldn't be close.

Polls showed CA under 20 points consistently. Look where we are now. We should know by now that polls are not entirely reliable. The unfortunate reality is that Youngkin is a bad candidate who doesn’t know how to campaign. Expect 2017 margins here.

VA isn't CA. Biden still had 56-41 positive JA in CA Exit Polls.

This Poll has him 46/51 in VA. If that's right the Race will be much closer to the 2013 margin than the 2017 margin!

Yes, this is what I had expected all along.  The question is whether this is the low point for Biden.  I think it probably is, but he could keep sliding.

[Skill and Chance]

I think this is too low of a margin considering Virginia’s partisan lean, which is only getting more Democratic by the cycle. Still think McAuliffe wins by 10.

As we saw in California, Dems successfully nationalized that race to make it about Trump (fair or not), rendering Biden irrelevant. As a result, they matched their 2020 margins. No one should be surprised if the same occurs here.

They’ll run that playbook until they can’t. It won’t be anytime soon bc they know it works. Trump is the best turnout machine for Democrats

Maybe?

VA doesn't have automatic VBM, but they do have a 45 day in-person early voting period. 

[Skill and Chance]

Not necessarily that I think McAuliffe is going to romp to victory (hard to see Dems not paying a penalty for a president with middling/low approvals), but Northam's average lead on RCP was +3.3 in 2017. So Democratic candidates posting these kinds of numbers this far out is not exactly unheard of. Source

This is true, but back in 2013, the same polling average had McAuliffe +6.0 and then he only won by +2.5.