VA- Wapo/schar school poll- McAuliffe +3 among LV, +6 among RV (user search)
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  VA- Wapo/schar school poll- McAuliffe +3 among LV, +6 among RV (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA- Wapo/schar school poll- McAuliffe +3 among LV, +6 among RV  (Read 1218 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: September 18, 2021, 08:44:14 AM »
Quote from: jimmie on September 17, 2021, 07:44:26 PM
There is no way that Youngkin is leading by 57 to 37 in Loudoun and Prince William county and behind statewide.

And contrary to popular belief, Pwc and Loudoun have very different demographics.

Yeah, crosstabs are iffy but this one is really bad.

Like others have said, CA proved that pollsters are still terrible at coming up with an accurate LV model, so RV seems like the # to go with here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2021, 04:54:04 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 18, 2021, 10:25:28 AM
Quote from: Virginiá on September 18, 2021, 09:44:52 AM
Not necessarily that I think McAuliffe is going to romp to victory (hard to see Dems not paying a penalty for a president with middling/low approvals), but Northam's average lead on RCP was +3.3 in 2017. So Democratic candidates posting these kinds of numbers this far out is not exactly unheard of. Source

This is true, but back in 2013, the same polling average had McAuliffe +6.0 and then he only won by +2.5. 

Right, but 2017 is closer, so it makes more sense to take the closer result.
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