Not necessarily that I think McAuliffe is going to romp to victory (hard to see Dems not paying a penalty for a president with middling/low approvals), but Northam's average lead on RCP was +3.3 in 2017. So Democratic candidates posting these kinds of numbers this far out is not exactly unheard of. Source
This is true, but back in 2013, the same polling average had McAuliffe +6.0 and then he only won by +2.5.
Also true, but changes in the coalition demographics may also mitigate some of that issue. Heavier reliance on college graduates and other high-turnout demos might make Democrats more likely to match or over-perform their polling. These are some of the same groups that gave Republicans its midterm advantage. Just a thought, anyway.
More favorable to the idea that the White House curse will at the very least make it unlikely that Democrats over-perform their polls too much like 2017.
