VA- Wapo/schar school poll- McAuliffe +3 among LV, +6 among RV

[TodayJunior]

I think this is too low of a margin considering Virginia’s partisan lean, which is only getting more Democratic by the cycle. Still think McAuliffe wins by 10.

As we saw in California, Dems successfully nationalized that race to make it about Trump (fair or not), rendering Biden irrelevant. As a result, they matched their 2020 margins. No one should be surprised if the same occurs here.

They’ll run that playbook until they can’t. It won’t be anytime soon bc they know it works. Trump is the best turnout machine for Democrats

Maybe?

VA doesn't have automatic VBM, but they do have a 45 day in-person early voting period. 

I don’t believe the method is relevant. VA voters generally are engaged on the whole.

[UncleSam]

Not necessarily that I think McAuliffe is going to romp to victory (hard to see Dems not paying a penalty for a president with middling/low approvals), but Northam's average lead on RCP was +3.3 in 2017. So Democratic candidates posting these kinds of numbers this far out is not exactly unheard of. Source

This is true, but back in 2013, the same polling average had McAuliffe +6.0 and then he only won by +2.5. 

Right, but 2017 is closer, so it makes more sense to take the closer result.

Not necessarily. 2013 is the most recent example with a D in the White House.

Overall my guess is that the enthusiasm gap factor will result in Rs getting a boost relative to polling, but that Ds’ new coalition will also give it a boost due to being more reliable. Probably it’ll end up being a wash and therefore final polling averages won’t be significantly under- or over-performed by either candidate.