What's the largest possible margin do you think Dems could get in Texas?

[Sea-Spit]

I personally think they could win by 5% at most just by maxing out turnout in Dallas, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio while affording to lose South Texas.

[Non Swing Voter]

1

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

In 2024? Probably only about 1-2%, and that would require continued trends in the suburbs while gaining back a bit in the RGV. Not impossible, but difficult (thus I'd rate it Lean R.) Beyond 2024, though, their ceiling gets higher, assuming that the urban areas keep growing.

[THG]

It depends on how the urban areas trend. Right now Austin looks excellent for Democrats as well as the DFW area and San Antonio to a lesser extent (though they can for sire swing back Republican), though there are some question marks for Dems about Houston and especially El Paso/RGV for sure.

I don’t think all the urban areas in Texas swing magically swing D but both sides should be careful. It’s definitely different from Georgia where one large urban area dominates the state and is universally trending D incredibly quickly, however.

Overall however I currently think that Beto’s 2018 margin was the best Democrats in Georgia will get for a while but this doesn’t give Republicans there an excuse to suddenly be complacent.

[TodayJunior]

In 2024, on a very good night, they could flip it barely like GA/AZ-2020, but no more than 50,000 votes would be the margin or less than 0.01%. There would be recount that could last weeks given the size of the state.

[CentristRepublican]

It depends on how the urban areas trend. Right now Austin looks excellent for Democrats as well as the DFW area and San Antonio to a lesser extent (though they can for sire swing back Republican), though there are some question marks for Dems about Houston and especially El Paso/RGV for sure.

I don’t think all the urban areas in Texas swing magically swing D but both sides should be careful. It’s definitely different from Georgia where one large urban area dominates the state and is universally trending D incredibly quickly, however.

Overall however I currently think that Beto’s 2018 margin was the best Democrats in Georgia will get for a while but this doesn’t give Republicans there an excuse to suddenly be complacent.

I'm surprised I'm saying this, but this is a reasonable, realisitc, well-thought out and fairly true analysis, THG. The only fault I could find in it was in paragraph 4, when you mean to write 'Democrats in Texas' and wrote 'Democrats in Georgia'. Overall, I agree with you. In 2024 the state is more likely to go Republican than Democratic, but is a potential Democratic pick up down the line (I feel like it could quite plausibly flip by 2028). My only other problem is that I believe it's possible, assuming they have a good election night, for Democrats in 2024 to outperform Beto O'Rourke. By 2024 TX will be even more urban than it was in 2018. Maybe Biden won't beat Beto, but it's pretty possible Ted Cruz underpeforms his 2018 percentage himself, given his behaviour at Cancun (though granted, it might not be remembered in 2024, I think using good messaging, Democrats could hammer Cruz on it) and him trumpeting election lies.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

It depends on how the urban areas trend. Right now Austin looks excellent for Democrats as well as the DFW area and San Antonio to a lesser extent (though they can for sire swing back Republican), though there are some question marks for Dems about Houston and especially El Paso/RGV for sure.

I don’t think all the urban areas in Texas swing magically swing D but both sides should be careful. It’s definitely different from Georgia where one large urban area dominates the state and is universally trending D incredibly quickly, however.

Overall however I currently think that Beto’s 2018 margin was the best Democrats in Georgia will get for a while but this doesn’t give Republicans there an excuse to suddenly be complacent.

I'm surprised I'm saying this, but this is a reasonable, realisitc, well-thought out and fairly true analysis, THG. The only fault I could find in it was in paragraph 4, when you mean to write 'Democrats in Texas' and wrote 'Democrats in Georgia'. Overall, I agree with you. In 2024 the state is more likely to go Republican than Democratic, but is a potential Democratic pick up down the line (I feel like it could quite plausibly flip by 2028). My only other problem is that I believe it's possible, assuming they have a good election night, for Democrats in 2024 to outperform Beto O'Rourke. By 2024 TX will be even more urban than it was in 2018. Maybe Biden won't beat Beto, but it's pretty possible Ted Cruz underpeforms his 2018 percentage himself, given his behaviour at Cancun (though granted, it might not be remembered in 2024, I think using good messaging, Democrats could hammer Cruz on it) and him trumpeting election lies.

I think it's pretty likely that Cruz underperforms PresiDem, he's really not that good of a fit for the state, and I imagine there will be lots of Democrats lined up to challenge him. I think a flip is possible in 2024, but I do agree that 2028 is likelier.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

In 2024? D+3.

This would mean most of Trump's gains with hispanics were a pro-incumbent boost, and that the TX suburbs vote like the GA/AZ burbs.

[หมูเด้ง]

I think the next president that isn’t a Republican will carry Texas.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

It depends on how the urban areas trend. Right now Austin looks excellent for Democrats as well as the DFW area and San Antonio to a lesser extent (though they can for sire swing back Republican), though there are some question marks for Dems about Houston and especially El Paso/RGV for sure.

I don’t think all the urban areas in Texas swing magically swing D but both sides should be careful. It’s definitely different from Georgia where one large urban area dominates the state and is universally trending D incredibly quickly, however.

Overall however I currently think that Beto’s 2018 margin was the best Democrats in Georgia will get for a while but this doesn’t give Republicans there an excuse to suddenly be complacent.

I'm surprised I'm saying this, but this is a reasonable, realisitc, well-thought out and fairly true analysis, THG. The only fault I could find in it was in paragraph 4, when you mean to write 'Democrats in Texas' and wrote 'Democrats in Georgia'. Overall, I agree with you. In 2024 the state is more likely to go Republican than Democratic, but is a potential Democratic pick up down the line (I feel like it could quite plausibly flip by 2028). My only other problem is that I believe it's possible, assuming they have a good election night, for Democrats in 2024 to outperform Beto O'Rourke. By 2024 TX will be even more urban than it was in 2018. Maybe Biden won't beat Beto, but it's pretty possible Ted Cruz underpeforms his 2018 percentage himself, given his behaviour at Cancun (though granted, it might not be remembered in 2024, I think using good messaging, Democrats could hammer Cruz on it) and him trumpeting election lies.

Was that worth making a point of?

[CentristRepublican]

It depends on how the urban areas trend. Right now Austin looks excellent for Democrats as well as the DFW area and San Antonio to a lesser extent (though they can for sire swing back Republican), though there are some question marks for Dems about Houston and especially El Paso/RGV for sure.

I don’t think all the urban areas in Texas swing magically swing D but both sides should be careful. It’s definitely different from Georgia where one large urban area dominates the state and is universally trending D incredibly quickly, however.

Overall however I currently think that Beto’s 2018 margin was the best Democrats in Georgia will get for a while but this doesn’t give Republicans there an excuse to suddenly be complacent.

I'm surprised I'm saying this, but this is a reasonable, realisitc, well-thought out and fairly true analysis, THG. The only fault I could find in it was in paragraph 4, when you mean to write 'Democrats in Texas' and wrote 'Democrats in Georgia'. Overall, I agree with you. In 2024 the state is more likely to go Republican than Democratic, but is a potential Democratic pick up down the line (I feel like it could quite plausibly flip by 2028). My only other problem is that I believe it's possible, assuming they have a good election night, for Democrats in 2024 to outperform Beto O'Rourke. By 2024 TX will be even more urban than it was in 2018. Maybe Biden won't beat Beto, but it's pretty possible Ted Cruz underpeforms his 2018 percentage himself, given his behaviour at Cancun (though granted, it might not be remembered in 2024, I think using good messaging, Democrats could hammer Cruz on it) and him trumpeting election lies.

Was that worth making a point of?

The point was that I couldn't find anything wrong with THG's analysis, except for a typo I pointed out. I absolutely didn't mean to offend THG in pointing it out.