Will Florida reach #1 on COVID deaths per capita?

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's no surprise that Florida is among the worst states for COVID infections.  One in every six Florida residents has now had COVID-19.  The other red states aren't far behind, as they've all collectively chosen to continue spreading the virus and not getting the vaccine.  In contrast, in my home state of Washington, we have half as many infections per capita.  In Vermont, the most-vaccinated states, they're even doing twice as well as WA.

Republicans can't really deny these numbers, nor the obvious trend, where all the red states have high COVID infection rates per capita and all the blue states have low rates -- in fact, you could show someone the sorted list and say it was sorted by Trump % and most people would probably believe you (with the outlier exception of tiny Rhode Island).

But the talking point Republicans love to use is the COVID deaths per capita.  Now it's worth noting that both the infection rate and death rate numbers released by the state of Florida have been heavily questioned by scientists and critics.  But if we accept them at face value, Florida is actually only the 12th worst state.  In fact, some of the New England states hardest hit at the beginning of the pandemic -- including New York, touted in the media as a success story -- still top the list.

So what's the problem, right?  The media attacks Ron DeSantis for giving everyone COVID, but actually there aren't that many people dying of COVID in his state, and there are some Democratic states doing worse than Florida that get a free pass!  It's just liberal media bias!

The problem is that the death numbers for those New England states are almost entirely accountable to the start of the pandemic, when there weren't enough hospital beds, medical equipment, or trained staff (not to mention Trump withholding medical supplies from blue states).  The densely-populated NY/NJ region, in particular, saw people dying in droves.  At the peak of the first wave, New York alone had almost 1,000 people dying every day.  But the state got its act together and beat back the disease.  Since the first wave ended, it has never seen more than 100 deaths per day, and since the vaccine was introduced deaths are down to the single digits.  Jersey, Mass, Rhode Island are similar stories, although some were harder hit by the Christmas surge.

In Florida, on the other hand, deaths are not only continuing to surge, they're at their all-time peak, and twice as bad as they've ever been in the past.  Nobody is dying in New York, but in Florida, hundreds of people are still dying every day.  This means that although NY/NJ's horrifying early death numbers still put them atop the list, FL is rising quickly.

To give some numbers, NJ sits atop the list with a death rate per 100K people of 305, while FL is in 12th at 229 (WA is 92 and VT is 47).  Currently Florida is experiencing about 350 COVID deaths per day, which for a population of around 21MM means 1.6 new deaths for every 100,000 people.

If Florida continues at its current rate, it will take about 7 weeks to reach the top of the list.

If Florida declines to around 200 deaths per day, it will take about 12 weeks to reach the top of the list.

Of course, Florida could also get COVID under control and bring its deaths back down to zero.  But does anyone actually think DeSantis is capable of that?

[Xing]

I think it very well could overtake NJ/NY, especially the latter, but that doesn't mean a different Southern state like MS (which is about to claim the #1 spot) won't remain ahead of Florida.

Either way, those who defend DeSantis's response to the pandemic have used statistics when they support their argument, and ignored them when they don't, so I don't think Florida moving to the top of the list in deaths per capita would convince anyone to think otherwise.

[Tintrlvr]

Very unlikely. Florida is not increasing that fast and is well behind the leaders, including many Southern states like Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama that are or recently have been matching or beating Florida in new per capita deaths as well. There's probably more of an undercount there than in many other states, but not enough to make a huge difference, and again the other Southern states also have larger-than-average undercounts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, that's why DeSantis and Rubio are only 2 pts ahead of D's, if Biden Approvals approaches 50% or better, DeSantis and Rubio are done

[DINGO Joe]

Just an FYI, all the sites that do COVID per capita are still using 2019 pop estimates instead of actually 2020 Census numbers so there is a considerable adjustments especially for all the NE states that had a far higher census count than their estimates

The top 20 as of yesterday using 2020 data

1--Mississippi       3073
2--New Jersey      2920
3--Louisiana         2859
4--New York         2739
5--Arizona            2703
6--Massachusetts  2618
7--Rhode Island    2561
7--Alabama          2545
9--Arkansas          2444
10--Oklahoma       2435
11--South Dakota  2360
12--Connecticut     2334
13--Florida            2287
14--Georgia           2265
15--South Carolina 2243
16--Indiana            2217
16--Pennsylvania    2217
18--New Mexico      2195
19--Nevada            2186
20--Michigan          2175

Tennessee and Texas are at 22 and 23 and will knock two of the 16-20 out.    Generally speaking the SEC states are rising up the rankings fast and Mississippi and Louisiana will be 1-2 soon enough.  Too many other Southern train wrecks for Florida to reach #1.   Now if you did a post vaccine ranking with deaths after Jan, then Florida could contend but again it would even be more dominated by the other SEC states. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

The same exact thing happened last year where Florida surged in the summer but didn’t as much during winter time

[Sol]

Just an FYI, all the sites that do COVID per capita are still using 2019 pop estimates instead of actually 2020 Census numbers so there is a considerable adjustments especially for all the NE states that had a far higher census count than their estimates

The top 20 as of yesterday using 2020 data

1--Mississippi       3073
2--New Jersey      2920
3--Louisiana         2859
4--New York         2739
5--Arizona            2703
6--Massachusetts  2618
7--Rhode Island    2561
7--Alabama          2545
9--Arkansas          2444
10--Oklahoma       2435
11--South Dakota  2360
12--Connecticut     2334
13--Florida            2287
14--Georgia           2265
15--South Carolina 2243
16--Indiana            2217
16--Pennsylvania    2217
18--New Mexico      2195
19--Nevada            2186
20--Michigan          2175

Tennessee and Texas are at 22 and 23 and will knock two of the 16-20 out.    Generally speaking the SEC states are rising up the rankings fast and Mississippi and Louisiana will be 1-2 soon enough.  Too many other Southern train wrecks for Florida to reach #1.   Now if you did a post vaccine ranking with deaths after Jan, then Florida could contend but again it would even be more dominated by the other SEC states. 

Do you have the full list anywhere, by chance?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I think Alabama has a shot at the top spot.

[DINGO Joe]

Do you have the full list anywhere, by chance?

No I kind of lose interest when you go below the national average which is just before Tennessee which is pretty hot and will go above the national avg soon enough

21--Illinois            2112
22--Texas              2104
National                2067
23--Tennessee       2058

North Dakota was recently pushed below average and it's possible that Illinois will fall below too.  Really depends on how long Fla and Tx stay hot and how long the lag is for death reporting.

[DINGO Joe]

I think Alabama has a shot at the top spot.

They try real hard but don't think they can get past MS and LA

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Will Florida reach #1 on COVID deaths per capita?

Unless, they start to sent sick grandmas back to nursing homes, no.

I think it very well could overtake NJ/NY, especially the latter, but that doesn't mean a different Southern state like MS (which is about to claim the #1 spot) won't remain ahead of Florida.

Either way, those who defend DeSantis's response to the pandemic have used statistics when they support their argument, and ignored them when they don't, so I don't think Florida moving to the top of the list in deaths per capita would convince anyone to think otherwise.

1 No, it's pretty unlikely, that FL overtakes NJ/NY. Despite the fact that FL population is 5 and 3 years older then NY and NJ, respectively, which is a pretty big deal, when you look at corona.


2 Both things can be true. DeSantis's response was simply best among larges states... until vaccinations. But even on vaccines, he's doing much better than most (R) gov (I know, the bar is low) and not much worse than NY, for stance (55% fully vax in FL vs 62% in NY is nog so big diff).

[MasterJedi]

I don't think so, it's full of Trumpers but a lot of the old people have gotten the vaccine too. They're the rich Trumpkins, they're not fully stupid about this, just mouthing it while getting stabbed in private. 

[DINGO Joe]

Today is Death Thursday in Florida (the day they drop most of their dead for the week) and Florida added 1511 dead today, so that takes them up to 2359, past CT and almost to SD.  I do expect that they'll ultimately get past RI and Mass but maybe not NY. 

[Roronoa D. Law]

I believe its population is too high for it to be #1 per capita. I agree with everybody else that it's between MS and LA.

[Hermit For Peace]

Who knows? Florida is a loony state (yes I know that people think CA is a loony state). The proof is in the pudding. My pastor used to tell us that. Florida will reach number one in this latest loony move, if it continues to earn the title.

[Non Swing Voter]

Not per capita but it will compete with Texas for most covid deaths.  I guess the GOP doesn't care though because the census was already taken.

[BlueSwan]

Just an FYI, all the sites that do COVID per capita are still using 2019 pop estimates instead of actually 2020 Census numbers so there is a considerable adjustments especially for all the NE states that had a far higher census count than their estimates

The top 20 as of yesterday using 2020 data

1--Mississippi       3073
2--New Jersey      2920
3--Louisiana         2859
4--New York         2739
5--Arizona            2703
6--Massachusetts  2618
7--Rhode Island    2561
7--Alabama          2545
9--Arkansas          2444
10--Oklahoma       2435
11--South Dakota  2360
12--Connecticut     2334
13--Florida            2287
14--Georgia           2265
15--South Carolina 2243
16--Indiana            2217
16--Pennsylvania    2217
18--New Mexico      2195
19--Nevada            2186
20--Michigan          2175

Tennessee and Texas are at 22 and 23 and will knock two of the 16-20 out.    Generally speaking the SEC states are rising up the rankings fast and Mississippi and Louisiana will be 1-2 soon enough.  Too many other Southern train wrecks for Florida to reach #1.   Now if you did a post vaccine ranking with deaths after Jan, then Florida could contend but again it would even be more dominated by the other SEC states. 

Do you have the full list anywhere, by chance?

I have used this site to track COVID since the beginning: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Its incredible that we've had two summers now where people extrapolate short term surges as lasting indefinitely and forget that COVID is seasonal. In summer it surges in the hot states, in winter it surges in the cold states. We're already seeing cases decline with the weather, and hospitalizations and deaths will follow.

Extrapolating the current death rates as lasting indefinitely is a bit like extrapolating the death rate from the worst week of the 2nd wave in Arizona to conclude that everyone in Arizona was going to die. It's safe to say that when winter comes around it isn't going to be Florida or Mississippi leading in cases or deaths.

[7,052,770]

Its incredible that we've had two summers now where people extrapolate short term surges as lasting indefinitely and forget that COVID is seasonal. In summer it surges in the hot states, in winter it surges in the cold states. We're already seeing cases decline with the weather, and hospitalizations and deaths will follow.

Extrapolating the current death rates as lasting indefinitely is a bit like extrapolating the death rate from the worst week of the 2nd wave in Arizona to conclude that everyone in Arizona was going to die. It's safe to say that when winter comes around it isn't going to be Florida or Mississippi leading in cases or deaths.

You're neglecting the key variable that is different now compared to last year, aren't you?

[Biden his time]

No lol

Deaths are peaking here (which makes sense as cases and positivity rates peaked three weeks ago) and COVID-19's epicenter has moved northward (and will continue to move northward throughout the winter). This is how the virus works, especially with the higher R-Value of the Delta variant (which will keep cases and deaths up even with mass vaccination).

In fact, we should expect it to recede from its current position of #10 over the coming months.

-SNIP- with lower than actual Florida numbers

The CDC is using the 2020 Census Results and has the latest data for Florida. Worldometers gets its Florida data very slowly and is currently more than 1K Florida deaths behind the CDC, so I advise to choose the CDC over Worldometers for this purpose.


Snapshot as of September 16, 2021 - Deaths per 100K people

1. 307 - Mississippi
2. 305 - New Jersey
3. 286 - Louisiana
4. 271 - New York state (adding NYC + rest of NYS together and dividing by 202.01249)
5. 267 - Massachusetts
6. 265 - Arizona
6. 265 - Rhode Island
8. 262 - Alabama
9. 243 - Arkansas
10. 236 - Florida
10. 236 - Connecticut
10. 236 - South Dakota


States which are likely to be hit hardest will be the Dakotas, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, being Northern states with extraordinarily low vaccination rates. South Dakota especially is likely to surpass Florida soon.


The summer peak isn't as bad as the winter one nationwide, but it is in Florida (as well as much of the South).

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Its incredible that we've had two summers now where people extrapolate short term surges as lasting indefinitely and forget that COVID is seasonal. In summer it surges in the hot states, in winter it surges in the cold states. We're already seeing cases decline with the weather, and hospitalizations and deaths will follow.

Extrapolating the current death rates as lasting indefinitely is a bit like extrapolating the death rate from the worst week of the 2nd wave in Arizona to conclude that everyone in Arizona was going to die. It's safe to say that when winter comes around it isn't going to be Florida or Mississippi leading in cases or deaths.

You're neglecting the key variable that is different now compared to last year, aren't you?

If you're talking about vaccinations this is a pretty weak argument because Florida's vaccination rate is above average. We also have other countries like Israel to look at which suggest that vaccines, while effective, are less effective than being young or not being obese.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The very spiteful, tribalistic part of my brain wants this to happen; but the rational, empathetic part of my brain does not. Either way, as for the question of will it happen rather than do I want it to, I don't quite think so. I can't really say why, there is a lot to consider with this question. But it still shouldn't somehow mean that DeSuckass is a competent leader on the crisis. And I'm glad that he has already appeared to have become an effective foil for us Democrats. If the Democratic tactics of using Florida's and Texas' situations with the delta virus to campaign on did indeed help with the California recall, that is.

[Dan the Roman]

Its incredible that we've had two summers now where people extrapolate short term surges as lasting indefinitely and forget that COVID is seasonal. In summer it surges in the hot states, in winter it surges in the cold states. We're already seeing cases decline with the weather, and hospitalizations and deaths will follow.

Extrapolating the current death rates as lasting indefinitely is a bit like extrapolating the death rate from the worst week of the 2nd wave in Arizona to conclude that everyone in Arizona was going to die. It's safe to say that when winter comes around it isn't going to be Florida or Mississippi leading in cases or deaths.

You're neglecting the key variable that is different now compared to last year, aren't you?

If you're talking about vaccinations this is a pretty weak argument because Florida's vaccination rate is above average. We also have other countries like Israel to look at which suggest that vaccines, while effective, are less effective than being young or not being obese.

Answer to this question depends on whether this is the last wave. If it is, Florida will hit 55,000 by first week of October, and 57K-60K by end of the year. That is MA range now.

In that case NO. Florida will not overtake.

If, however,

1. Natural Immunity Wears off
2. Vaccine immunity does as well
3. Booster attrition in terms of uptake becomes highly politized

Then Florida could see another wave on par or greater than this one next summer.

I have long felt all the discussion about DeSantis is premature. It is far too soon to say. DeSantis will probably fully recover if this is the last wave. On the otherhand, what i think the last month did is exhaust the patience  of many of those who stood by him. If he is right, and if this is the last wave, then standing firm on restrictions will probably have been worth it in the eyes of a majority of Floridians and national Republicans.

If it was for naught, and Florida has a winter wave on par with last year which kills another 10k-12K and then next summer we are back with another 20K dead, I think his support will be very vulnerable to collapsing entirely.

Ironically the die is now cast. DeSantis pivoting now would make no difference. It is all entirely up to unknowables regarding natural immunity and variants. I think it was an error to place himself in a position where his fate hinged on factors he could not control, but there we are.

Florida could end the year at 58K and then drift towards 65K by November 2022. Or it could approach 90K-100K by then.

[Houstonian Sock]

Obviously not

[DINGO Joe]

No lol

Deaths are peaking here (which makes sense as cases and positivity rates peaked three weeks ago) and COVID-19's epicenter has moved northward (and will continue to move northward throughout the winter). This is how the virus works, especially with the higher R-Value of the Delta variant (which will keep cases and deaths up even with mass vaccination).

In fact, we should expect it to recede from its current position of #10 over the coming months.

-SNIP- with lower than actual Florida numbers

The CDC is using the 2020 Census Results and has the latest data for Florida. Worldometers gets its Florida data very slowly and is currently more than 1K Florida deaths behind the CDC, so I advise to choose the CDC over Worldometers for this purpose.


Snapshot as of September 16, 2021 - Deaths per 100K people

1. 307 - Mississippi
2. 305 - New Jersey
3. 286 - Louisiana
4. 271 - New York state (adding NYC + rest of NYS together and dividing by 202.01249)
5. 267 - Massachusetts
6. 265 - Arizona
6. 265 - Rhode Island
8. 262 - Alabama
9. 243 - Arkansas
10. 236 - Florida
10. 236 - Connecticut
10. 236 - South Dakota


States which are likely to be hit hardest will be the Dakotas, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, being Northern states with extraordinarily low vaccination rates. South Dakota especially is likely to surpass Florida soon.


The summer peak isn't as bad as the winter one nationwide, but it is in Florida (as well as much of the South).

Nope, they're using the 2019 estimates too.  As to Worldometer vs CDC vs WaPo yeah there is an obvious attempt to slow roll some of the data by the states.  I tend to use the higher number of the various sources.