North Korea Prepares for a Future Without Kim Jong Un

[Frodo]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

Even a peaceful reunification of Korea would be problematic and extremely expensive for South Korea, far beyond what West Germany had to pay for German reunification. The only way South Korea would even consider attempting reunification by force would be if chaos in North Korea had already caused one or more contenders to be Kim Jong-un's successor to launch an invasion of South Korea. Even then, they'd probably just try to push the Korean People's Army back across the DMZ, only going further if the North Koreans refused offers of a resumed armistice.

The only way I ever see reunification occurring is for some reason the Chinese allow it to intentionally weaken South Korea. The end game to me is North Korea becomes more of a Chinese vassal state a la Imperial Japan-led Manchukuo. This would require the elimination of the Kim family from the leadership and for someone that is completely under China's thumb to take control and get rid of all the Kim loyalists in the state apparatus.

Isn’t North Korea already a client/vassal state of China?  Unless what you are really referring to is have China follow Russia’s lead (with regard to Crimea) and officially annex the country. And honestly, I can’t say I am averse to the idea.  North Korea is such a basket case I’d rather they be China’s burden instead of South Korea’s (and by extension, ours).

North Korea and China are in the nadir of their relationship together after the murder of Jang Thae Sok, who represented the pro-Chinese faction. They are not a Chinese vassal state, never have been and that’s due to the various purges within the North Korean elite.

The relationship between China and North Korea is not unlike that between the United States and Pakistan up through the Afghanistan War.  And Pakistan was often described as a client of the United States until they decided they would rather be China’s client state instead.

[PSOL]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

Even a peaceful reunification of Korea would be problematic and extremely expensive for South Korea, far beyond what West Germany had to pay for German reunification. The only way South Korea would even consider attempting reunification by force would be if chaos in North Korea had already caused one or more contenders to be Kim Jong-un's successor to launch an invasion of South Korea. Even then, they'd probably just try to push the Korean People's Army back across the DMZ, only going further if the North Koreans refused offers of a resumed armistice.

The only way I ever see reunification occurring is for some reason the Chinese allow it to intentionally weaken South Korea. The end game to me is North Korea becomes more of a Chinese vassal state a la Imperial Japan-led Manchukuo. This would require the elimination of the Kim family from the leadership and for someone that is completely under China's thumb to take control and get rid of all the Kim loyalists in the state apparatus.

Isn’t North Korea already a client/vassal state of China?  Unless what you are really referring to is have China follow Russia’s lead (with regard to Crimea) and officially annex the country. And honestly, I can’t say I am averse to the idea.  North Korea is such a basket case I’d rather they be China’s burden instead of South Korea’s (and by extension, ours).

North Korea and China are in the nadir of their relationship together after the murder of Jang Thae Sok, who represented the pro-Chinese faction. They are not a Chinese vassal state, never have been and that’s due to the various purges within the North Korean elite.

The relationship between China and North Korea is not unlike that between the United States and Pakistan up through the Afghanistan War.  And Pakistan was often described as a client of the United States until they decided they would rather be China’s client state instead.

Completely wrong. North Korea has never really had a good relationship with its main economic partners, choosing to remain outside the Comecon economic reforms spearheaded by the Soviet Union and expelling Chinese citizens in its borders. Pakistan has never gone through the Army, the leading force in the country, being purged by civilian bureaucrats out of a propagandized fear of subjugation from a foreign power at least three times!

North Korea’s decisions lay with the Kim family disproportionately, and from its geography and political place has always been free from foreign influence since the purges of the 60s and continued onwards by the current Kim. This contrasts with South Korea, which is still under the leash of the United States as its vassal to the chagrin of the current elected civilian bureaucrats dealing with the various pillars of its proxies; the top brass of the Armed Forces, the Chaebols, and the evangelicals who all organize under the LKP.

[Frodo]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

Even a peaceful reunification of Korea would be problematic and extremely expensive for South Korea, far beyond what West Germany had to pay for German reunification. The only way South Korea would even consider attempting reunification by force would be if chaos in North Korea had already caused one or more contenders to be Kim Jong-un's successor to launch an invasion of South Korea. Even then, they'd probably just try to push the Korean People's Army back across the DMZ, only going further if the North Koreans refused offers of a resumed armistice.

The only way I ever see reunification occurring is for some reason the Chinese allow it to intentionally weaken South Korea. The end game to me is North Korea becomes more of a Chinese vassal state a la Imperial Japan-led Manchukuo. This would require the elimination of the Kim family from the leadership and for someone that is completely under China's thumb to take control and get rid of all the Kim loyalists in the state apparatus.

Isn’t North Korea already a client/vassal state of China?  Unless what you are really referring to is have China follow Russia’s lead (with regard to Crimea) and officially annex the country. And honestly, I can’t say I am averse to the idea.  North Korea is such a basket case I’d rather they be China’s burden instead of South Korea’s (and by extension, ours).

North Korea and China are in the nadir of their relationship together after the murder of Jang Thae Sok, who represented the pro-Chinese faction. They are not a Chinese vassal state, never have been and that’s due to the various purges within the North Korean elite.

The relationship between China and North Korea is not unlike that between the United States and Pakistan up through the Afghanistan War.  And Pakistan was often described as a client of the United States until they decided they would rather be China’s client state instead.

Completely wrong. North Korea has never really had a good relationship with its main economic partners, choosing to remain outside the Comecon economic reforms spearheaded by the Soviet Union and expelling Chinese citizens in its borders. Pakistan has never gone through the Army, the leading force in the country, being purged by civilian bureaucrats out of a propagandized fear of subjugation from a foreign power at least three times!

North Korea’s decisions lay with the Kim family disproportionately, and from its geography and political place has always been free from foreign influence since the purges of the 60s and continued onwards by the current Kim. This contrasts with South Korea, which is still under the leash of the United States as its vassal to the chagrin of the current elected civilian bureaucrats dealing with the various pillars of its proxies; the top brass of the Armed Forces, the Chaebols, and the evangelicals who all organize under the LKP.

No, I am not wrong.  North Korea has always been described as a client state of the then-Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China up until relatively recently.  And -no offense- by far more authoritative sources than an anonymous poster on an online forum. 

[PSOL]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

Even a peaceful reunification of Korea would be problematic and extremely expensive for South Korea, far beyond what West Germany had to pay for German reunification. The only way South Korea would even consider attempting reunification by force would be if chaos in North Korea had already caused one or more contenders to be Kim Jong-un's successor to launch an invasion of South Korea. Even then, they'd probably just try to push the Korean People's Army back across the DMZ, only going further if the North Koreans refused offers of a resumed armistice.

The only way I ever see reunification occurring is for some reason the Chinese allow it to intentionally weaken South Korea. The end game to me is North Korea becomes more of a Chinese vassal state a la Imperial Japan-led Manchukuo. This would require the elimination of the Kim family from the leadership and for someone that is completely under China's thumb to take control and get rid of all the Kim loyalists in the state apparatus.

Isn’t North Korea already a client/vassal state of China?  Unless what you are really referring to is have China follow Russia’s lead (with regard to Crimea) and officially annex the country. And honestly, I can’t say I am averse to the idea.  North Korea is such a basket case I’d rather they be China’s burden instead of South Korea’s (and by extension, ours).

North Korea and China are in the nadir of their relationship together after the murder of Jang Thae Sok, who represented the pro-Chinese faction. They are not a Chinese vassal state, never have been and that’s due to the various purges within the North Korean elite.

The relationship between China and North Korea is not unlike that between the United States and Pakistan up through the Afghanistan War.  And Pakistan was often described as a client of the United States until they decided they would rather be China’s client state instead.

Completely wrong. North Korea has never really had a good relationship with its main economic partners, choosing to remain outside the Comecon economic reforms spearheaded by the Soviet Union and expelling Chinese citizens in its borders. Pakistan has never gone through the Army, the leading force in the country, being purged by civilian bureaucrats out of a propagandized fear of subjugation from a foreign power at least three times!

North Korea’s decisions lay with the Kim family disproportionately, and from its geography and political place has always been free from foreign influence since the purges of the 60s and continued onwards by the current Kim. This contrasts with South Korea, which is still under the leash of the United States as its vassal to the chagrin of the current elected civilian bureaucrats dealing with the various pillars of its proxies; the top brass of the Armed Forces, the Chaebols, and the evangelicals who all organize under the LKP.

No, I am not wrong.  North Korea has always been described as a client state of the then-Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China up until relatively recently.  And -no offense- by far more authoritative sources than an anonymous poster on an online forum. 

Yes, by liberal bourgeoisie sources who don’t care about the facts and don’t actually do research into North Korea. Your following of absolute dogma even blocks out the recent evidence I posted on the contrary to reality.

Let’s see if those sources will be right the next time a senior member is “purged” or Kim “appears ill” and reappears in better health.

[Flyersfan232]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

Isn’t the ruling party against this? (( though polls show the main opposition of a chance to take power next year