Why did Nebraska swing so far left
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  Why did Nebraska swing so far left
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Author Topic: Why did Nebraska swing so far left  (Read 1357 times)
Pres Mike
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« on: September 15, 2021, 09:23:46 PM »

Nebraska as a whole swung 6 points! That is tied with Kansas for having the biggest swing outside the Northeast region

I know Kansas has slowly been moving left but no one talks about Nebraska. Perhaps Trump's tariffs and trade wars hurt a lot of farmers?

NE-2 did swing 9 points, far more than any congressional district. Perhaps that swung the state as a whole?
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2021, 09:28:59 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2021, 09:45:09 PM by DaleCooper »

The population in and around Omaha and Lincoln, where Democrats are making big gains, is exploding out of control while it's decreasing if not completely collapsing almost everywhere else, where Republicans have little room to improve anyway since they already dominate the rest of the state. Look at this map of population growth since the last census:



Nebraska will continue to trend leftward, but don't expect Democrats to win anytime soon unless the party figures out how to appeal to rural America.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2021, 09:38:45 PM »

It is a genuinely interesting result that is not discussed enough.

Over 55% of the state's population lives in just three counties - Douglas (Omaha), Lancaster (Lincoln) and Sarpy (Omaha suburbs). And all three swung substantially towards Biden, while most of the rural counties are completely maxed out for the GOP. It helps that those three counties are growing decently quickly, while the rural areas are generally stagnant or shrinking.
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2021, 09:52:46 PM »

It is a genuinely interesting result that is not discussed enough.

Over 55% of the state's population lives in just three counties - Douglas (Omaha), Lancaster (Lincoln) and Sarpy (Omaha suburbs). And all three swung substantially towards Biden, while most of the rural counties are completely maxed out for the GOP. It helps that those three counties are growing decently quickly, while the rural areas are generally stagnant or shrinking.

I still couldn't believe the swing in Sarpy. I know it is suburban but it isn't a huge suburban county.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2021, 09:59:12 PM »

It is a genuinely interesting result that is not discussed enough.

Over 55% of the state's population lives in just three counties - Douglas (Omaha), Lancaster (Lincoln) and Sarpy (Omaha suburbs). And all three swung substantially towards Biden, while most of the rural counties are completely maxed out for the GOP. It helps that those three counties are growing decently quickly, while the rural areas are generally stagnant or shrinking.

It's funny because on the NYT map Sarpy, Douglas, and Lancaster had the 3 biggest county swings (left) in the state.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2021, 03:41:42 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2021, 03:54:34 PM by TDAS04 »

Omaha and Lincoln are well-educated.  Nebraska is also more urban/suburban than many of its neighbors.  In addition, while Nebraska is definitely a Republican state, it’s not that culturally Trumpy.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2021, 11:28:19 AM »

The population in and around Omaha and Lincoln, where Democrats are making big gains, is exploding out of control while it's decreasing if not completely collapsing almost everywhere else, where Republicans have little room to improve anyway since they already dominate the rest of the state. Look at this map of population growth since the last census:



Nebraska will continue to trend leftward, but don't expect Democrats to win anytime soon unless the party figures out how to appeal to rural America.

...or Omaha and Lincoln grow enough to urbanize the area between them. 
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2021, 12:20:09 PM »

The population in and around Omaha and Lincoln, where Democrats are making big gains, is exploding out of control while it's decreasing if not completely collapsing almost everywhere else, where Republicans have little room to improve anyway since they already dominate the rest of the state. Look at this map of population growth since the last census:



Nebraska will continue to trend leftward, but don't expect Democrats to win anytime soon unless the party figures out how to appeal to rural America.

...or Omaha and Lincoln grow enough to urbanize the area between them.  

That's the trajectory. The fastest growing towns and "cities" in the state are basically just exurbs surrounding these places where yuppies go to raise their only-child in a 5 bedroom suburban house, and then commute into the city for work. These places are still overwhelmingly Republican compared to the country at large and the state's two big cities, though. You'll be waiting a very long time if the goal is for Omaha and Lincoln to be big enough to carry the whole state on their own, unless those cities start voting like San Francisco.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2021, 12:20:25 PM »

The population in and around Omaha and Lincoln, where Democrats are making big gains, is exploding out of control while it's decreasing if not completely collapsing almost everywhere else, where Republicans have little room to improve anyway since they already dominate the rest of the state. Look at this map of population growth since the last census:



Nebraska will continue to trend leftward, but don't expect Democrats to win anytime soon unless the party figures out how to appeal to rural America.

While the metro areas in the eastern portion of the state are obviously growing faster than the state average, those county results actually appear pretty random...
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2021, 12:39:49 PM »

The population in and around Omaha and Lincoln, where Democrats are making big gains, is exploding out of control while it's decreasing if not completely collapsing almost everywhere else, where Republicans have little room to improve anyway since they already dominate the rest of the state. Look at this map of population growth since the last census:



Nebraska will continue to trend leftward, but don't expect Democrats to win anytime soon unless the party figures out how to appeal to rural America.

While the metro areas in the eastern portion of the state are obviously growing faster than the state average, those county results actually appear pretty random...

A lot of that randomness is because a lot of these counties are extremely low population. Cherry, the giant one at the top, has only about 5-6 thousand people, and Banner County on the left (growing by more the 5%) has less than a thousand. It's just no comparison to the growth of Lancaster, Douglas, and Sarpy. With the exception of a cluster of small cities, mainly Kearney and Grand Island near the eastern border of NE-03, all of it is bleeding population aside from an occasional random little county that's staying afloat. Even those growing cities I mentioned are very small. The closest county to Sarpy in population is only about 60,000 people.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2021, 03:49:17 PM »

The population in and around Omaha and Lincoln, where Democrats are making big gains, is exploding out of control while it's decreasing if not completely collapsing almost everywhere else, where Republicans have little room to improve anyway since they already dominate the rest of the state. Look at this map of population growth since the last census:



Nebraska will continue to trend leftward, but don't expect Democrats to win anytime soon unless the party figures out how to appeal to rural America.

...or Omaha and Lincoln grow enough to urbanize the area between them. 

Already in progress. Waverly and Ashland both have cookie-cutter planned communities developing already.


The population in and around Omaha and Lincoln, where Democrats are making big gains, is exploding out of control while it's decreasing if not completely collapsing almost everywhere else, where Republicans have little room to improve anyway since they already dominate the rest of the state. Look at this map of population growth since the last census:



Nebraska will continue to trend leftward, but don't expect Democrats to win anytime soon unless the party figures out how to appeal to rural America.

While the metro areas in the eastern portion of the state are obviously growing faster than the state average, those county results actually appear pretty random...

The western growth is illusory. The two dark green counties immediately south of the giant one have populations of 659 and 725 respectively. Even a 35% growth would still leave them under 1000.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2021, 05:34:59 PM »

The population in and around Omaha and Lincoln, where Democrats are making big gains, is exploding out of control while it's decreasing if not completely collapsing almost everywhere else, where Republicans have little room to improve anyway since they already dominate the rest of the state. Look at this map of population growth since the last census:



Nebraska will continue to trend leftward, but don't expect Democrats to win anytime soon unless the party figures out how to appeal to rural America.

While the metro areas in the eastern portion of the state are obviously growing faster than the state average, those county results actually appear pretty random...

What matters is that the raw population growth in Nebraska is heavily in Lincoln and Greater Omaha.  That is where the bulk of the population change will reasonably be in Nebraska. The rest of Nebraska can lose population, but Lincoln and Greater Omaha become more important in statewide population. 5% growth in a country with 1000 people is 50 people.   
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Pericles
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2021, 06:10:16 PM »

Education polarisation hurts the Republican Party in states where they've already maxed out the non college-educated white vote.
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DS0816
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« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2021, 08:25:05 PM »

Possibly Interesting Fact: With his 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States, Joe Biden’s only likewise pickup to give him a higher margin than his national result was Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2021, 10:10:31 PM »

Possibly Interesting Fact: With his 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States, Joe Biden’s only likewise pickup to give him a higher margin than his national result was Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

The NE-2 margin was fairly surprising. 

Somewhere in the middle of the election night I saw that + Biden's easy win in NH and was confused by the FL result. 
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2021, 12:44:25 PM »

Possibly Interesting Fact: With his 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States, Joe Biden’s only likewise pickup to give him a higher margin than his national result was Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

The NE-2 margin was fairly surprising. 

Somewhere in the middle of the election night I saw that + Biden's easy win in NH and was confused by the FL result. 
Those few hours on November 3 when Trump was leading were some of the worst of my life. Than the networks said Biden won NE-2 and FOX said he won AZ and my heart rate went down....
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2021, 12:54:28 PM »

Possibly Interesting Fact: With his 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States, Joe Biden’s only likewise pickup to give him a higher margin than his national result was Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

The NE-2 margin was fairly surprising. 

Somewhere in the middle of the election night I saw that + Biden's easy win in NH and was confused by the FL result. 
Those few hours on November 3 when Trump was leading were some of the worst of my life. Than the networks said Biden won NE-2 and FOX said he won AZ and my heart rate went down....

Yeah, the polls were definitely off.  But the only reason the night was so dramatic was because FL was the state where Biden did the worst relative to expectations and they reported the quickest.  If for instance, Minnesota reported more quickly it would have set the tone a lot more.  But yeah the AZ call was a big big sign.  Though I still think it was a bit premature even though it ultimately ended up being right.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2021, 06:46:51 AM »

Nebraska as a whole swung 6 points! That is tied with Kansas for having the biggest swing outside the Northeast region

Colorado had an 8.59-point swing to Biden vs. Delaware (7.59%) and Maryland (6.79%) followed by 6 for Nebraska and 5.77 for Kansas, so technically, Nebraska had the fourth biggest swing outside of the Northeast.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2021, 02:39:45 PM »

Nebraska as a whole swung 6 points! That is tied with Kansas for having the biggest swing outside the Northeast region

Colorado had an 8.59-point swing to Biden vs. Delaware (7.59%) and Maryland (6.79%) followed by 6 for Nebraska and 5.77 for Kansas, so technically, Nebraska had the fourth biggest swing outside of the Northeast.
Gary Johnson did unusually well in Colorado 2016 which explains a lot of that swing. And I am counting Delaware and Maryland as part of the general northeast
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2021, 12:30:10 AM »

Should also be noted that there were relatively small swings between '12 > '16 in the larger Metro areas in Nebraska vs KC 'Burbs.

Meant swings would be slightly larger in NE in '20 > KS considering that Educated Upper-Middle Class Burbs swung so much harder in KS than ME in '16.

NE was the lagging indicator and Johnson County was the leading indicator in this case....

Also, people could look at shifts in places within Metro OKC and Tulsa, and possibly even down into DWF to see how the whole "Data Center" version of the Tech Sector has been attracting skilled professionals as well as younger folks into places not normally considered as "desirable" to relocate to for a job gig.
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