Latino Vote Realignment (CA)

[MT Treasurer]

Can we please wait until >95% of the votes are in to establish any basis for 'granular' analysis like that? This goes for both sides btw, not just OP: Newsom's margin keeps narrowing as more of the election-day vote keeps coming in (not unlike 2020), so places like San Bernandino/Riverside could still easily end up flipping. Kind of hilarious to make bold claims about Latinos shifting D without Trump on the ballot when only 40% of the vote in Imperial County is in and the recall is already doing two points better than Trump/slightly better than Cox there.

But not enough votes have been counted to run the conclusive analyses that political analysts are hungry for, including: At what levels did Latino voters and young people turn out? What happened in rural areas? And what do the results mean for California’s hotly contested U.S. House seats?

Out of the more than 9.1 million votes tabulated as of Wednesday, nearly 64% supported keeping Newsom in office. The Associated Press estimates that about 13 million people voted, meaning as many as 4 million ballots are still uncounted — making a granular analysis of voter behavior or demographics almost impossible.

That hasn’t stopped analysts from trying, though.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-15/california-recall-how-many-ballots-are-left-to-be-counted

The single biggest thing this recall proves is not that there will be a D wave in 2022 (this was a D+30/D+29 state even in a R-leaning/neutral year), but that turnout this high (with every voter being mailed a ballot) will almost always reflect the state's partisanship despite what patterns unreliable early polling identifies in turnout/party enthusiam (this was also a major reason behind the polling failure in MT in 2020). Combined with the embarrassing R campaign in this state, there is nothing surprising about this result (I had NO falling slightly short of 60%, looks like it will end up slightly above it).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You guys really think running Larry Elder again is gonna bring the Latino vote out again in your favor and Alex Padilla is on the ballot is beyond me, obviously it was lower be our state Legislature and Congressional candidates on the ballot

D's are will be mobilized due to La Mayor election next trip

Alex Padilla is gonna reenergize Latinos next Nov 2022.
Larry Elder has zero chance again next yr

Cali isn't TX or FL but we are within the Margin of error of DeSantis and Rubio if Biden Approvals hit North of 50% we can win it

Ds won metro Latinos in LA, SD, SF and Oak

[tagimaucia]

Maybe it's not possible yet with much of the vote to still come in, but as anyone looked systematically about whether there is a clear difference in the partisan trend of heavily Latino districts relative to 2020 based on how rural or urban they are?

[Skill and Chance]

Can we please wait until >95% of the votes are in to establish any basis for 'granular' analysis like that? This goes for both sides btw, not just OP: Newsom's margin keeps narrowing as more of the election-day vote keeps coming in (not unlike 2020), so places like San Bernandino/Riverside could still easily end up flipping. Kind of hilarious to make bold claims about Latinos shifting D without Trump on the ballot when only 40% of the vote in Imperial County is in and the recall is already doing two points better than Trump/slightly better than Cox there.

But not enough votes have been counted to run the conclusive analyses that political analysts are hungry for, including: At what levels did Latino voters and young people turn out? What happened in rural areas? And what do the results mean for California’s hotly contested U.S. House seats?

Out of the more than 9.1 million votes tabulated as of Wednesday, nearly 64% supported keeping Newsom in office. The Associated Press estimates that about 13 million people voted, meaning as many as 4 million ballots are still uncounted — making a granular analysis of voter behavior or demographics almost impossible.

That hasn’t stopped analysts from trying, though.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-15/california-recall-how-many-ballots-are-left-to-be-counted

The single biggest thing this recall proves is not that there will be a D wave in 2022 (this was a D+30/D+29 state even in a R-leaning/neutral year), but that turnout this high (with every voter being mailed a ballot) will almost always reflect the state's partisanship despite what patterns unreliable early polling identifies in turnout/party enthusiam (this was also a major reason behind the polling failure in MT in 2020). Combined with the embarrassing R campaign in this state, there is nothing surprising about this result (I had NO falling slightly short of 60%, looks like it will end up slightly above it).

I don't think the CA recall is particularly relevant for 2022, but it could be very relevant for VA and NJ 2021.  They are both very high in college+ voters who favor strict COVID measures and they both have election rules that encourage high turnout like CA.  Early voting in VA starts tomorrow.

[THG]

Can we please wait until >95% of the votes are in to establish any basis for 'granular' analysis like that? This goes for both sides btw, not just OP: Newsom's margin keeps narrowing as more of the election-day vote keeps coming in (not unlike 2020), so places like San Bernandino/Riverside could still easily end up flipping. Kind of hilarious to make bold claims about Latinos shifting D without Trump on the ballot when only 40% of the vote in Imperial County is in and the recall is already doing two points better than Trump/slightly better than Cox there.

But not enough votes have been counted to run the conclusive analyses that political analysts are hungry for, including: At what levels did Latino voters and young people turn out? What happened in rural areas? And what do the results mean for California’s hotly contested U.S. House seats?

Out of the more than 9.1 million votes tabulated as of Wednesday, nearly 64% supported keeping Newsom in office. The Associated Press estimates that about 13 million people voted, meaning as many as 4 million ballots are still uncounted — making a granular analysis of voter behavior or demographics almost impossible.

That hasn’t stopped analysts from trying, though.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-15/california-recall-how-many-ballots-are-left-to-be-counted

The single biggest thing this recall proves is not that there will be a D wave in 2022 (this was a D+30/D+29 state even in a R-leaning/neutral year), but that turnout this high (with every voter being mailed a ballot) will almost always reflect the state's partisanship despite what patterns unreliable early polling identifies in turnout/party enthusiam (this was also a major reason behind the polling failure in MT in 2020). Combined with the embarrassing R campaign in this state, there is nothing surprising about this result (I had NO falling slightly short of 60%, looks like it will end up slightly above it).
[/quote

Exactly. It doesn’t seem like most of the election day votes have been counted but Atlas feels so confident bashing my prediction that Newsom would win by around 15 or so.

[Gass3268]

Not in Los Angeles County

https://twitter.com/Click_CA/status/1438541468050739203?s=20

[Matty]

I mean, considering whites in cities are much more democrat than whites outside cities, wouldn’t we expect that to show up among Latinos too?

Some of you seem awfully defensive about certain Latino trends, lol

You don’t own them.

[Non Swing Voter]

I mean, considering whites in cities are much more democrat than whites outside cities, wouldn’t we expect that to show up among Latinos too?

Some of you seem awfully defensive about certain Latino trends, lol

You don’t own them.

This is completely non-factual rebuttal that points to no evidence as opposed to the posts above which do.  You seem awfully aggressive about your predictions considering they haven't at all panned out thus far.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No no no, according to Atlas trends only favor Democrats. You're doing this all wrong!

Well, in this case with California at least, it's hard to see any trends going the Republicans' way when they propped up their leading candidate who only appeals to their primary base and nationalized the race in a way that backfired spectacularly.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/UCLAlatino/status/1438641234168332288?s=20

More county data, more lack of evidence for this threads title.

[Non Swing Voter]

Now that the latino vote trend has been debunked, does that mean the college white trend in this election is ALSO wrong?  Presumably the exit poll YES/NO vote numbers match the actual results.  So the incorrect latino vote share must be offset somewhere.... 

[Gass3268]

Not in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/UCLAlatino/status/1438004875657318405?s=20

[Adam Griffin]

Rather than making a sweeping generalization, it might help to look at the various communities that comprise Latino voters overall. For CA (and for a lot of other places, too), I'd say break it down into three broader categories:

• distinctly urban clusters where the majority of Latinos reside
• relatively less urbanized areas with relatively large Latino populations
• rural or otherwise isolated places where Latinos are the overwhelming majority

It's fairly clear that Democrats aren't having long-term issues with the first group, and because of that, any major "realignment" or shift is impossible on some grand scale.

The second group in CA would more or less focus on the Central Valley, where huge fluctuations in Latino turnout between presidential and off-year elections occur. It's very likely any statistically large movements here compared to recent elections is merely turnout-based discrepancies. Remember that these CDs have some of the lowest turnout in the country in any midterm elections.

That leaves the third group (places such as Imperial Valley, and the RGV for that matter). I do think it can be argued that this group is trending toward the GOP, but it's a relatively tiny segment of the overall population. A good thread on AAD can be found around this discussion, but one quote in particular that applies to the RGV I think may broadly apply to a place like the Imperial Valley:

A few points:

1. When the national Democratic Party is talking about "racial justice" they are basically talking about racial justice specifically for black people. The 1619 Project, confederate monuments, police profiling - by and large those are questions of reckoning with the historical black-white dynamic in America.

Hispanic people do not feel like they have any role in that. Either they didn't come here until after slavery and Jim Crow ended or they were living in places that by and large weren't impacted by any of that.

A lot of these people are proud of their own heritage - many have roots in Texas much longer than the typical white person here. Others came here and struggled and were able to make lives for themselves and their descendants. They are proud to be tejanos or to be Mexican-American, but they are also proud to be American and when you have black activists and liberal whites ranting about how America is an irredeemably racist country that has to be broken down and rebuilt from scratch, that's kind of offensive to them. They think, "What does that make me? I'm not racist. I've never done anything to any black person."

In the 1960s, a generation of white ethnics were driven into the arms of the GOP for precisely this reason - they were sick of what they saw as white liberals taking away their jobs and their neighborhoods for the benefit of blacks, while those white liberals were living in favored quarters and sending their kids to private schools. They were tired of being asked to give up something for the sake of blacks when they and their ancestors had no complicity in slavery or Jim Crow.

2. You have to understand that everybody in the RGV is Hispanic. I mean, everybody. We're talking >90% Hispanic. If you live there, the gas station clerk and the janitor are Hispanic, but so is the doctor at the clinic, so is the police officer who pulled you over for speeding, so are your teachers at school, so are the lawyers and bankers who make up the local elite.

There is no dynamic down there of white people as an oppressive minority akin to South Africa. Hispanic people aren't getting beaten by white cops. Hispanic kids aren't getting bullied at school for being Hispanic. There are no angry white Boomers yelling "Go back to your own country!" at the supermercado.

Most of those people don't get around a lot. If they travel, it's to visit family in Mexico or Houston or San Antonio. They don't have any conception of "racism" because they live in a racially homogenous society.

[Non Swing Voter]

Not in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/UCLAlatino/status/1438004875657318405?s=20

It's an extremely precise pattern at this point.

[THG]

I mean, considering whites in cities are much more democrat than whites outside cities, wouldn’t we expect that to show up among Latinos too?

Some of you seem awfully defensive about certain Latino trends, lol

You don’t own them.

This. Anyone using the bluest inner city SF or LA area precincts to defend the declining performance of Democrats with Hispanic voters is like using Seattle or Portland or the Bay Area to make a nuanced commentary on white college voters nationwide.

Either way, while I agree that exit polls are definitely garbage in general, even I doubt they’re so off from 2020 or even 2018.

[Non Swing Voter]

Newsom margin hovering around 27% right now.  This big "narrowing" we were promised here is NOT happening to the degree claimed. 

[Devout Centrist]

Speaking of Imperial, here's the latest update:

NO 10,296 62.05%
YES 6,296 37.95%

[Skill and Chance]

Speaking of Imperial, here's the latest update:

NO 10,296 62.05%
YES 6,296 37.95%

They are <50% in, though, so you can't make assumptions from this.  Most important indicators so far are Riverside and San Bernardino right of Orange (!) plus Newsom < Biden in San Diego and L.A.  So far it's Newsom > Biden in the Bay area and Biden > Newsom everywhere else, most notably in SoCal.

[Devout Centrist]

Speaking of Imperial, here's the latest update:

NO 10,296 62.05%
YES 6,296 37.95%

They are <50% in, though, so you can't make assumptions from this. 

They've added two batches of additional VBM so far. Both have been more Democratic than the count on election day. Obviously we've got a ways to go, but this is a positive sign so far

[Skill and Chance]

It's also worth noting that if this trend really takes off, Republicans eventually have an EC problem.  It's not ideal to end up winning Florida and Texas by 12 while losing NY and CA by 12, especially if Dems start breaking through more in high floor/low ceiling Southern states.   

[NotSoLucky]

Part of the problem is that most of this isn't a 'realignment'. Bush made similar gains among Latinos in 2004, which was crucial to winning Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. But overall Democrats still win the majority of the Latin American vote, and this was still the case even in the 2004 and 2020 elections.

There is a bit of a generational divide among Hispanics when it comes to issues such as immigration or crime, with older Latinos leaning more conservative on these issues. This could explain the 2004 and 2020 swings, at least in part. But this isn't anything new, and this divide was already there arguably since Latinos first became a significant voting block.

[Non Swing Voter]

Part of the problem is that most of this isn't a 'realignment'. Bush made similar gains among Latinos in 2004, which was crucial to winning Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. But overall Democrats still win the majority of the Latin American vote, and this was still the case even in the 2004 and 2020 elections.

There is a bit of a generational divide among Hispanics when it comes to issues such as immigration or crime, with older Latinos leaning more conservative on these issues. This could explain the 2004 and 2020 swings, at least in part. But this isn't anything new, and this divide was already there arguably since Latinos first became a significant voting block.

and both those elections were GOP incumbents.  yet this board still refuses to learn the lesson that hispanics have a slight pro-incumbent bent.  when Obama won Florida in 2012 they didn't say hispanics were trending democrat because it didn't fit the narrative.  the GOP is just desperately grasping at straws because they know they are in mass demographic decline. 

[Devout Centrist]

Speaking of Imperial, here's the latest update:

NO 10,296 62.05%
YES 6,296 37.95%

New results:

NO 12,111 63.04%
YES 7,101 36.96%

[Non Swing Voter]

Well with like 90% of the actual vote in, I think it's fair to say those initial exit polls were complete and utter nonsense.  They were almost as far off as the pre-election polls.  It's amazing.  Pollsters have one job, this is all they do...

[Donerail]

Speaking of Imperial, here's the latest update:

NO 10,296 62.05%
YES 6,296 37.95%

New results:

NO 12,111 63.04%
YES 7,101 36.96%

Which means that this

Imperial County is right of the state at this election

is no longer true.