Why the CA-Recall results are bad for Democrats.
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  Why the CA-Recall results are bad for Democrats.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: September 15, 2021, 10:29:46 AM »

Also, please explain how your new analysis coincides with this:

LOL, LA County just over 50% to keep. Nah.
SoCal is very hostile to Newsom at the moment, which is the reason he will go down next month.
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« Reply #26 on: September 15, 2021, 10:31:26 AM »

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

All I know about him is he broke his own COVID rules this past winter by attending a party, he’s very conventionally attractive, and that he may have dyslexia.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #27 on: September 15, 2021, 10:41:39 AM »

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

All I know about him is he broke his own COVID rules this past winter by attending a party, he’s very conventionally attractive, and that he may have dyslexia.

Kimberly Guilfoyle shared with us many years ago that he’s well-hung, too. Not making it up.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #28 on: September 15, 2021, 10:56:30 AM »

Stay tuned for Woodbury's next article: Why the comet impact was actually good for the dinosaurs.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #29 on: September 15, 2021, 11:02:28 AM »

I guess this is a better response than trying to kill people and denying outright that you lost like the insurrectionists.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #30 on: September 15, 2021, 11:07:10 AM »

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

There really isn't anything uniquely bad about him. Republicans have been trying to find someone to make into a villain the way that Democrats did to Trump, but the problem is they pick fairly boring and non-offensive people to do that with.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #31 on: September 15, 2021, 11:08:28 AM »

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

There really isn't anything uniquely bad about him. Republicans have been trying to find someone to make into a villain the way that Democrats did to Trump, but the problem is they pick fairly boring and non-offensive people to do that with.

Newsom is nowhere near as bad as Trump, but that doesn't mean that he should be praised or liked either.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2021, 11:18:55 AM »

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

There really isn't anything uniquely bad about him. Republicans have been trying to find someone to make into a villain the way that Democrats did to Trump, but the problem is they pick fairly boring and non-offensive people to do that with.

Newsom is nowhere near as bad as Trump, but that doesn't mean that he should be praised or liked either.

Stop twisting my words. I never said anyone was obligated to praise or like him. The point that you are not getting is that Newsom is not offensive enough to recall or even hate. Republicans hate him for a whole lot of imagined reasons that most voters do not even see.
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« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2021, 12:06:49 PM »

I don't really think there's going to be a red wave in 2022. We live in such polarized times, and the Dem electorate has become much more educated and therefore likely to turn out since 2010 and 2014. That said, 2022 doesn't have to be a wave for it to be a bad year for Democrats, and Republicans are still heavily favored in the House and slightly favored in the Senate.
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« Reply #34 on: September 15, 2021, 01:25:46 PM »

I don't really think there's going to be a red wave in 2022. We live in such polarized times, and the Dem electorate has become much more educated and therefore likely to turn out since 2010 and 2014. That said, 2022 doesn't have to be a wave for it to be a bad year for Democrats, and Republicans are still heavily favored in the House and slightly favored in the Senate.

I think Rs will make some gains, but I am inclined to agree that polarization will limit things so that it can't be really called a true "wave" and would even say that 2010 and 2014 results somewhat support the idea that R gains will be limited.

The bulk of the Republican gains in 2010 and 2014 came in heavily Republican seats in rural areas, especially in the rural south, that voted heavily for McCain and then Romney, and which were still held by Conservadem remnants from a bygone era. But currently, Dems hold very few of those sorts of seats in the house and also the Senate. With a handful of exceptions (Joe Manchin for example), Dems are basically all in seats that voted for Biden or at minimum were competitive, and not in areas with any real strong Republican trend. Even in 2010 and 2014, Dems held on comparatively much better in Dem areas and Dem trending areas as compared to those heavily GOP areas.

While suburbs may well trend back somewhat, it now appears unlikely that they will fully flip back to the GOP. With Republicans continuing to embrace ridiculous conspiracy theories and behave in a manner that alienates anyone with a college education, things are not going back to how they used to be pre-Trump. I would expect at least some suburban losses, but not a massacre in those Dem trending anti-Trump suburban areas where Dems picked up seats.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #35 on: September 15, 2021, 03:20:31 PM »

It is pretty dumb and uninformed to say that election night results in CA are bad for Dems.

CA has lots of mail ballots that arrive and are counted after election day (as long as they are mailed on/before election day). In the past, those votes have typically skewed Democratic. To the extent that is the case this time around, then Dem performance may well improve significantly after all of the votes are actually counted.

So wait until the votes are counted to draw your conclusions.

Or have a pie to the face. Your choice.

OK, I guess you're going with the pie.

During the 2020 election, the Early VBM was heavily Dem, the Election Day was heavily R, and the late VBM was in the middle, but still more R than D on balance, enough to hand some R's leads in close House races. Everything about the Early VBM and election day partisan breakdowns would suggest the case is the same, with late VBM pushing no down to 62% percent.

The previous partisan breakdowns, pre-COVID, are essentially useless because those elections occurred before all of anti-VBM rhetoric from the right.
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« Reply #36 on: September 15, 2021, 03:41:33 PM »

Technically you are, but such complaints hold less force now than they did before. And this will especially be the case if Newsom is reelected next year. The best outcome for Democrats would have been to recall Newsom and replace him with a more moderate or pragmatic Democrat.

Democrats don't want the same things in a leader conservatives do.

Are you saying that Democrats want a leader who is proudly progressive? I'm not going to say that they can't have that, but is it not possible to have a progressive who is also pragmatic? Someone in the vein of say, Jared Polis? Newsom's hypocrisy with regards to the pandemic is what I object to the most, and I do think that California wouldn't be hurt by having a Governor who is more sensible on social issues.

Just curious. On what social issues do you consider Newsom not to be sensible about?
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« Reply #37 on: September 15, 2021, 03:52:13 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2021, 05:12:33 PM by "?" »

They're bad for CA Democrats because they have to keep dealing with Gavin f**king Newsom while Larry Elder, the worst replacement candidate, received almost a majority of the vote.

This is what happens when you choose Yes for Question 1 and leave Question 2 blank.


This is the real bad news. Elder padded Newsom’s margin, and because he won by a lot, he’s less likely to change course (and there will be less external pressure on him to do so).

Newsom is a bad Governor in need of humbling or a primary. The recall made both of these things less likely.

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

I didn't see many Dems clamoring for an expensive & wasteful recall that may have actually emboldened Newsom more than ever to pass more leftist/liberal policies.

Whose fault is that?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #38 on: September 15, 2021, 04:46:53 PM »

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

There really isn't anything uniquely bad about him. Republicans have been trying to find someone to make into a villain the way that Democrats did to Trump, but the problem is they pick fairly boring and non-offensive people to do that with.

Newsom is nowhere near as bad as Trump, but that doesn't mean that he should be praised or liked either.

Stop twisting my words. I never said anyone was obligated to praise or like him. The point that you are not getting is that Newsom is not offensive enough to recall or even hate. Republicans hate him for a whole lot of imagined reasons that most voters do not even see.

What is your problem? I did not intend my post as an attack against you, but you chose to interpret it that way. No matter. I have to remind myself sometimes that I cannot allow myself to return to the situation I was in before my hiatus. I disagree with you with regards to Newsom. I believe that there are legitimate reasons to object to him or to disagree with him, and I've said before that I feel California Democrats would be better served by having another, more pragmatic Democrat as Governor rather than him.

Now, this doesn't mean that I would support some extremist becoming Governor. I didn't support Larry Elder, and I disagree with him on a number of issues. Republicans botched their campaign in California, and the field of replacement candidates was weak. What would the outcome have been if some formidable Democratic challenger had gotten in? Voters, I believe, would have seized that alternative.
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« Reply #39 on: September 15, 2021, 05:11:50 PM »

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« Reply #40 on: September 15, 2021, 05:12:33 PM »

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

There really isn't anything uniquely bad about him. Republicans have been trying to find someone to make into a villain the way that Democrats did to Trump, but the problem is they pick fairly boring and non-offensive people to do that with.

Newsom is nowhere near as bad as Trump, but that doesn't mean that he should be praised or liked either.

Stop twisting my words. I never said anyone was obligated to praise or like him. The point that you are not getting is that Newsom is not offensive enough to recall or even hate. Republicans hate him for a whole lot of imagined reasons that most voters do not even see.

What is your problem? I did not intend my post as an attack against you, but you chose to interpret it that way. No matter. I have to remind myself sometimes that I cannot allow myself to return to the situation I was in before my hiatus. I disagree with you with regards to Newsom. I believe that there are legitimate reasons to object to him or to disagree with him, and I've said before that I feel California Democrats would be better served by having another, more pragmatic Democrat as Governor rather than him.

Now, this doesn't mean that I would support some extremist becoming Governor. I didn't support Larry Elder, and I disagree with him on a number of issues. Republicans botched their campaign in California, and the field of replacement candidates was weak. What would the outcome have been if some formidable Democratic challenger had gotten in? Voters, I believe, would have seized that alternative.

You do have a very clear pattern of misinterpreting/misconstruing/misstating what people say to create a straw man for a narrative you believe in.  
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #41 on: September 15, 2021, 05:59:36 PM »

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

There really isn't anything uniquely bad about him. Republicans have been trying to find someone to make into a villain the way that Democrats did to Trump, but the problem is they pick fairly boring and non-offensive people to do that with.

Newsom is nowhere near as bad as Trump, but that doesn't mean that he should be praised or liked either.

Stop twisting my words. I never said anyone was obligated to praise or like him. The point that you are not getting is that Newsom is not offensive enough to recall or even hate. Republicans hate him for a whole lot of imagined reasons that most voters do not even see.

What is your problem? I did not intend my post as an attack against you, but you chose to interpret it that way. No matter. I have to remind myself sometimes that I cannot allow myself to return to the situation I was in before my hiatus. I disagree with you with regards to Newsom. I believe that there are legitimate reasons to object to him or to disagree with him, and I've said before that I feel California Democrats would be better served by having another, more pragmatic Democrat as Governor rather than him.

Now, this doesn't mean that I would support some extremist becoming Governor. I didn't support Larry Elder, and I disagree with him on a number of issues. Republicans botched their campaign in California, and the field of replacement candidates was weak. What would the outcome have been if some formidable Democratic challenger had gotten in? Voters, I believe, would have seized that alternative.

You do have a very clear pattern of misinterpreting/misconstruing/misstating what people say to create a straw man for a narrative you believe in.  

I decided to delete my initial response to this because I felt that I was lashing out. I'll try to be more measured here. What I'll say is that it is not my intention to misinterpret or misconstrue what others say. Nor am I trying to craft a "straw man" or a manipulative narrative. I try to follow the trends in elections, learn from those trends, and see how they might apply in the future.

Ever since returning from my hiatus, I've tried to be more open-minded and reflective. Two years ago, I was wrong about Andy Beshear in Kentucky. Last year, I overestimated Biden and Democrats generally. And I underestimated the margin of defeat for the recall, as I've noted elsewhere. What I'm trying to point out is that this result in California shouldn't be construed as being entirely predictive of what will happen next year.

Much can change between now and November 2022, and many of the contests we'll see will be in terrain that may not be as friendly to Democrats. It's also important to emphasize that polarization will influence next year's results. I do believe that Republicans will regain control of Congress, but it won't be by the margins of 1994 or 2010, and both Houses will be close either way.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #42 on: September 15, 2021, 06:30:30 PM »

Get a load of Chris Cilizza here. Give me a f***ing break.

Sometimes in life things don't go your way. It's okay to be upset about it, but at some point you need to move past the denial stage of grief and accept a harsh reality. Take it from us Democrats.

Gavin Newsom having PTSD from this recall that will never allow him to want to eat at French Laundry ever again is probably the only way this whole situation can be bad for him.

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« Reply #43 on: September 15, 2021, 06:33:48 PM »

You know the Recall didn't have our state Representatives and House and Senate candidates on the same ballot, if Elder runs again, he will lose again
Our LA Mayor race is next yr and D's will be energized Sir Woodbury for D's to vote😄😄😄😄
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DrScholl
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« Reply #44 on: September 15, 2021, 06:38:09 PM »

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

There really isn't anything uniquely bad about him. Republicans have been trying to find someone to make into a villain the way that Democrats did to Trump, but the problem is they pick fairly boring and non-offensive people to do that with.

Newsom is nowhere near as bad as Trump, but that doesn't mean that he should be praised or liked either.

Stop twisting my words. I never said anyone was obligated to praise or like him. The point that you are not getting is that Newsom is not offensive enough to recall or even hate. Republicans hate him for a whole lot of imagined reasons that most voters do not even see.

What is your problem? I did not intend my post as an attack against you, but you chose to interpret it that way. No matter. I have to remind myself sometimes that I cannot allow myself to return to the situation I was in before my hiatus. I disagree with you with regards to Newsom. I believe that there are legitimate reasons to object to him or to disagree with him, and I've said before that I feel California Democrats would be better served by having another, more pragmatic Democrat as Governor rather than him.

Now, this doesn't mean that I would support some extremist becoming Governor. I didn't support Larry Elder, and I disagree with him on a number of issues. Republicans botched their campaign in California, and the field of replacement candidates was weak. What would the outcome have been if some formidable Democratic challenger had gotten in? Voters, I believe, would have seized that alternative.

Everyone has legitimate reasons to object to any elected official, but nothing about Newsom warranted a recall just one year before a special election and most voters were aware of that. Republicans filed several recall petitions against Jerry Brown as well, so you really should realize that these efforts are not about real issues, but partisanship and the need for Republicans to have everything their way.
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« Reply #45 on: September 16, 2021, 01:40:29 PM »

Low-effort, predictable trolling may get reactions, but that doesn't make it good trolling.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #46 on: September 16, 2021, 01:47:05 PM »

Atlas Blue Posters: Recall is a local race, results don't have federal implications.

Atlas Blue Posters: Recall is bad news for Dems in federal races because they won by same or bigger margin than the last Govs race (wave Dem year on federal level).

OK
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« Reply #47 on: September 19, 2021, 06:35:20 AM »

A lot of attacks against Honorable Sir Woodbury, but Harry Enten (former 538) kind of agrees with him.

Never change, Woodbury.

There's just no valid claim to say from the results that the environment has shifted. CA may be a poor indicator for that in the 1st place, regardless of the result. Just a quick reminder that the 2010 and 2014 R waves basically stopped in CA. So people shouldn't base any 2022 prediction off these results. If it tells us anything, then that county flips from HRC and Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively, weren't flukes at all. Just like IA statewide races in 2018 confirmed Trump's 2016 victory and rural shifts weren't a fluke either.






Why California's results are in line with the GOP taking the House in 2022
Quote
The problem for Biden is that the exit poll indicates clear leakage in his support from a year ago. In the 2020 general election exit poll, his favorable rating stood at 64% to an unfavorable rating of 34%.

Put another way, his net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable) rating of +30 points a year ago became a +19-point net approval rating this year. Similarly, the exit poll itself showed that recall voters said they voted for Biden by a 26-point margin last year, which is 7 points higher than his net approval rating.

This is largely consistent with what we see in national polling. Biden's net approval rating nationally stands somewhere around -3 points to -4 points. Last year's national exit poll had Biden's net favorability rating at +6 points. He beat Trump by 4.5 points in the popular vote.

That is, Biden's net ratings nationally seem to have taken somewhere in the neighborhood of a high-single digit to a 10-point drop since the election.

Nothing in the California results indicates that the national polls are greatly underestimating Biden's popularity.

It's important to keep in mind, too, that the California results mirror what we've been seeing in special state legislative and federal elections. Democrats have been underperforming Biden's baseline, and by more so recently. So this is not a one-off.

To put this in some historical perspective, California and a lot of the special elections this year look somewhat like what we witnessed in 2017 ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, except in reverse. There were a lot of elections that year in which Republicans won, but Democrats kept doing better than Hillary Clinton did in the same places a year earlier. On a national scale, this translated to Democrats easily winning the House in 2018.

Quote
Again, this general pattern matches with what we saw in 2018. Democrats won back the House because more voters disapproved than approved of Trump's job as president, and about 90% of voters cast ballots that reflected either their approval or disapproval of him.

Ahead of 2022, Republicans need only a five-seat gain in the House to win control, and they lost the national House vote by 3 points in 2020. Even the slightest movement toward the Republicans from 2020 would likely mean good things for them.
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« Reply #48 on: September 19, 2021, 04:38:06 PM »

The analysts can spin it however they want.  Why are they comparing a gov. recall to Presidential results?  Why aren't they comparing it to Newsom's prior results? 

In a Dem wave year Newsom actually fared slightly worse than this time.  So on the one hand it's a couple points worse than the Biden win, on the other it's a couple points better than the Newsom win.  This says to me that there is no massive red wave building like people think.
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« Reply #49 on: September 19, 2021, 06:09:34 PM »

The analysts can spin it however they want.  Why are they comparing a gov. recall to Presidential results?  Why aren't they comparing it to Newsom's prior results? 

In a Dem wave year Newsom actually fared slightly worse than this time.  So on the one hand it's a couple points worse than the Biden win, on the other it's a couple points better than the Newsom win.  This says to me that there is no massive red wave building like people think.

The fact that Democrats overcame an enthusiasm advantage, at least based on what he summer polling suggested, is enough for me not to consider this an underperformance. Not even close. History suggests that the recall should have done better in an environment where Republicans would be galvanized and Democrats complacent, but the opposite happened. There is no good news for Republicans in this race, no matter how hard they try to polish this turd of theirs. Really they just want to make excuses so they never have to change their electoral strategies.
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