Does your family know 22/51 states have already passed AVR?

[Adam Griffin]

Light blue = passed but not yet in effect (ME 2022, NY & DE 2023)

[Skill and Chance]

GA and NH really stand out.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't even think my family knows what AVR stands for

[GregTheGreat657]

I don't even think my family knows what AVR stands for

AVR is automatic voter registration

[MT Treasurer]

GA and NH really stand out.

Well, NH is entirely because of Sununu, who vetoed a bill that would have implemented AVR a couple of months before the 2020 election. It would have definitely passed under a Democratic governor that year.

I still can’t believe it passed in GA, though. From a strategic (read: not moral) perspective, approving AVR was Deal's/Kemp's and the GA GOP's biggest own goal. Cost Republicans the Senate majority, the state's electoral votes, likely ended Kemp's career, and will relegate Georgia Republicans to permanent minority status two cycles sooner than it would have without AVR.

[_.]

I don't even think my family knows what AVR stands for

I myself didn't know what it stood for before opening this thread

[hurricanehink]

Wtf Hawaii and MN

[SInNYC]

MN and HI both have same day registration so AVR isnt that big a deal. MN was that way forever (with a particularly easy process - just bring a registered neighbor to vouch for you if you dont have an ID) and HI passed it a few years back.

A significant number of states without VRA have same day registration - see https://thefulcrum.us/voting/same-day-registration. The south is of course the exception, but some notable states outside the south are IN/OH/PA and ND/SD/NE/KS/MO.

[Adam Griffin]

So that leaves 19 states without AVR and/or same-day registration:

[lfromnj]

GA and NH really stand out.

Well, NH is entirely because of Sununu, who vetoed a bill that would have implemented AVR a couple of months before the 2020 election. It would have definitely passed under a Democratic governor that year.

I still can’t believe it passed in GA, though. From a strategic (read: not moral) perspective, approving AVR was Deal's/Kemp's and the GA GOP's biggest own goal. Cost Republicans the Senate majority, the state's electoral votes, likely ended Kemp's career, and will relegate Georgia Republicans to permanent minority status two cycles sooner than it would have without AVR.

I doubt AVR was directly strong enough to flip Georgia in the runoffs although Trump would have probably won in Nov and Perdue I guess would have won outright.

[MT Treasurer]

I doubt AVR was directly strong enough to flip Georgia in the runoffs although Trump would have probably won in Nov and Perdue I guess would have won outright.

Yeah, but that’s basically the difference between a R Senate and a D Senate and Trump going nuclear on Kemp/Raffensperger (and weakening the entire GA GOP for the runoffs & 2022).

Also, without Trump pushing that vote fraud conspiracy and basically running against the GA GOP as much if not more than against Ossoff/Warnock, even the Loeffler vs. Warnock runoff at least would have been closer (although I agree that Warnock might still have won).

[Non Swing Voter]

Notice the two southeastern states on that map which are shaded blue: Virginia, Georgia.

Remind you of something?

[Adam Griffin]

GA and NH really stand out.

Well, NH is entirely because of Sununu, who vetoed a bill that would have implemented AVR a couple of months before the 2020 election. It would have definitely passed under a Democratic governor that year.

I still can’t believe it passed in GA, though. From a strategic (read: not moral) perspective, approving AVR was Deal's/Kemp's and the GA GOP's biggest own goal. Cost Republicans the Senate majority, the state's electoral votes, likely ended Kemp's career, and will relegate Georgia Republicans to permanent minority status two cycles sooner than it would have without AVR.

I doubt AVR was directly strong enough to flip Georgia in the runoffs although Trump would have probably won in Nov and Perdue I guess would have won outright.

For what it's worth and following the 2016 election (right after was when AVR was implemented), there's been a consistent net 300-400k voter growth on active voter rolls each year and the breakdown of new people appears to be 60-40 D. This is one reason I was so "hard" on Abrams et al claiming she mobilized so many first-timers: a solid majority of her gains simply came from AVR over those 2 years.

At any rate and when accounting for this, Biden basically overpeformed the projections from AVR post-2016 by about 20k votes (thanks, white suburbrons and rurals!). Trump definitely would have won GA without AVR and Perdue would have won a November majority as well; Loeffler would have won the January runoff. I still don't understand why GAGOP pushed for AVR so uniformly...

I would point out that GA's transformation over the past 4 years is perfectly in line with automatic voter registration trends.

Between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, GA netted 1,562,282 active registered voters. For several years now, Democrats have been roughly 60% of the gains in voter registration based on demographics alone. This would point to a net gain for Democrats of 312,000 registered voters between the two elections.

Roughly two-thirds of these voters can be expected to show in a presidential election. This would be a net of 200,100 registered voters for Democrats over the same time period.

Hillary Clinton lost the state by 211,141 votes; Biden won by 11,779. That's a net shift of 222,920 votes.

So:

2016-2020 VR Partisan Shift: 200,100
2016-2020 Actual Partisan Shift: 222,920

The state's margins are tracking very well with projected performance based on voter registration alone. Of course there is generational turnover that actually is factored into performance, but this one metric is performing at basically a 1:1 ratio for the time being. Over the next four years, the immense gains of AVR will dissipate as the entire eligible population becomes registered (we're already very close), but expect an additional baseline net gain for Democrats of 80-100k votes.

Unless "independents" or moderate suburbrons abandon the party, this is basically set in stone.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So that leaves 20 states without AVR and/or same-day registration:

What would the point of SDR be if you have AVR? Wouldn't anyone who can register already be?

[beesley]

I don't even think my family knows what AVR stands for

It took me a good minute.

[Adam Griffin]

So that leaves 20 states without AVR and/or same-day registration:

What would the point of SDR be if you have AVR? Wouldn't anyone who can register already be?

Depends on the method. If a state's AVR is via getting a driver's license and the state requires a photo ID, then by virtue of updating your most common form of state ID, it'd be redundant, yes. However (and while it's a niche scenario), someone who just moved to the state but has yet to get a driver's license could still register same-day with a state-issued college ID or passport etc.

I'm not sure how states do it that use other databases besides DMW/DDS, but presumably those are not updated on a weekly or even monthly basis, so it'd still leave potentially small but meaningful groups of people excluded w/o SDR.

It seems like a lot of states with SDR only were those states that historically resisted any restrictive procedures in general (including photo IDs to vote). The ones with both tend to be solidly-blue states that are likely pushing for any form of voter ease possible, while many of the AVR-only states are states with histories of restrictive voting procedures (heavily conservative, closed primaries, multi-month deadlines before elections to register, etc).

[lfromnj]

ND should be blank by the way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So that leaves 20 states without AVR and/or same-day registration:

What would the point of SDR be if you have AVR? Wouldn't anyone who can register already be?

Depends on the method. If a state's AVR is via getting a driver's license and the state requires a photo ID, then by virtue of updating your most common form of state ID, it'd be redundant, yes. However (and while it's a niche scenario), someone who just moved to the state but has yet to get a driver's license could still register same-day with a state-issued college ID or passport etc.

I'm not sure how states do it that use other databases besides DMW/DDS, but presumably those are not updated on a weekly or even monthly basis, so it'd still leave potentially small but meaningful groups of people excluded w/o SDR.

It seems like a lot of states with SDR only were those states that historically resisted any restrictive procedures in general (including photo IDs to vote). The ones with both tend to be solidly-blue states that are likely pushing for any form of voter ease possible, while many of the AVR-only states are states with histories of restrictive voting procedures (heavily conservative, closed primaries, multi-month deadlines before elections to register, etc).

Thanks for the explanation! And yeah, it's notable that both NY and GA recently adopted AVR after years of restrictive voter laws. Hopefully this leads to a lasting increase in turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

Actually, now I'm wondering after looking at my map...didn't ND have same-day registration recently? Did they abolish it? I thought anybody in ND could just show up same day and register?

Most "Populist" (large P) states had relatively open laws on this. I could've swore ND had same-day registration.

EDIT: OK - North Dakota has no registration whatsoever! So technically, you just show up and vote (if challenged, all you have to show is proof that you live at an address somewhere in the state). So while my map is still technically accurate, ND probably should be colored in its own category.

EDIT 2: updated my original map with the ND change - that leaves 19 states without some form of AVR, SDR and/or universal guarantee of ED voting.