Rate the fundamentals for election cycles an incumbent lost from most to least favorable

[dw93]

Based on how things looked a year prior to the election (minus 1912, as I can't answer that truthfully):

1. 1992 (despite the recession)
2. 2020
3. 1980 (the hostage crisis initially gave Carter a rally around the flag effect)
4. 1976
5. 1932


Based on how things looked six months prior to the election (again, minus 1912)

1. 2020 (Trump still had a majority support on his handling of the pandemic as well as the economy)
2. 1992
3. 1976
4. 1980
5. 1932

Based on how things looked on election day (minus 1912):

1. 1976
2. 1992
3. 2020
4. 1980
5. 1932

My overall take on these elections:

1. 1912: I didn't rank it as I don't know enough about the economic and international situation of 1911 and 1912. I am of the belief however that Taft might've won the election without TR in the race, given the results of the 1916 election and given the fact that Taft wasn't that conservative of a President.

2. 1932: A small grain of rice would've beaten Hoover in a landslide. Enough said.

3. 1976: I think the end result had more to do with Carter running a flawed campaign in the general election, the Democrats still not fully recovering from the fallout of the late 60's, and Ford running a surprisingly good campaign despite being an unelected incumbent and one that never ran for any national or even statewide office, than the fundamentals being favorable. Keep in mind, Ford not only had the fallout from Watergate and the pardon, he also had a sour economy for most (though it did improve through 1976) of his Presidency up to that point, and had a serious primary challenge from Reagan. Those are anything but favorable circumstances for an incumbent.

4. 1980: What little chances Carter had were due to a rally around the flag effect early in the Hostage crisis not fading too quickly and Reagan being viewed by enough people as an extremist. Factor both of those out, is loss would've been more apparent than it was, as prior to the hostage crisis a Kennedy primary challenge was serious enough for some to believe he could deny Carter the nomination.

5. 1992: If the election were held a year earlier, Bush would've won and won in a landslide due to his many Foreign Policy successes. That said, through the course of 1992, the focus of the country shifted to domestic issues, namely the economy, where Bush was vulnerable. Buchanan launching a primary challenge at all should've been a warning sign, but it wasn't until a strong showing in New Hampshire by Buchanan that the Bush inner circle even began to take the prospect that they might be vulnerable seriously. Then came the Perot factor, and while I agree with Old School Republican that Perot took slightly more from Bush, Perot not being in the race would've at most given Bush CO, MT, and GA, which would've still left Clinton at a decisive (though closer) win. It was clear after Perot dropped out in early summer (only to re enter in the fall) that Bush was toast as Clinton was leading big, and at times by double digits.

6. 2020: Like Bush 41, if the election were held a year earlier, Trump would've won, though unlike with Bush, a Trump win by no means would've been by a landslide or even a decisive win due to polarization and Trump being, well, Trump. Like Carter, Trump was dealt a crisis (COVID) at the end of his term that initially caused most of the country to rally behind him, only to have that support drop like a rock due to said crisis dragging on. The difference between Trump and Carter on this however is that Carter did meaningfully try to get the hostages free and worked to do so till his final moments as President, while Trump spread misinformation and politicized the pandemic, and didn't do much of anything on his part to curtail it. The Trump campaign's only messages on the campaign trail were "wasn't that pre COVID economy great" and a very muffled, authoritarian message/response about the riots, and with regards to the former message they offered no solutions to make the economy great again. The Trump campaign failed to adapted to the reality that emerged in the 8 months leading up to the election and they lost it accordingly, and the only reason it was a close election was because of polarization giving Trump a higher floor than he should have had , enough of an anti lockdown vote (lockdowns that Trump had little to no control over), and the far left of the Democratic party shooting the entire Democratic party in the foot with "Defund the Police" as the summer was rocked with rioting.