for the Incumbent.
Id say:
Would be close without a third-party candidate and in the case of 1992 a weaker dem candidate as well:
1. 1912
2. 1992
Should have been a 2008 style defeat for the incumbent party:
3. 2020
4. 1976
Very hard to see the incumbent get more than 150 EV in any circumstance:
5. 1980
6. 1932
Not sure about 1912 and 1992. I think Taft and HW Bush were doomed no matter what. For sure, the EC would have been closer without a 3rd candidate. I just don't believe it would have been that close.
The tipping point state in 1992 was Clinton 4.7 points so I think with no Perot and a weaker dem nominee, I think it’s a tossup race . 1912 It depends on how many Teddy voters Taft and Wilson would get , and given even 1916, it would seem like Taft would get the vast majority of them .
I don't think HW Bush would have maintained a real chance in 1992 against any somewhat competent Dem candidate. He was running for a 4th GOP term and the economy was in a downturn. While his foreign policy experience was widely recognized, the economic situation and his image has being out of touch would have made any reelection a challenging task.
As far as Taft is concerned, I read many times he wasn't very popular outside the conservative GOP wing. He would have lost one on one against Wilson, though TR would have won.
