Rate the fundamentals for election cycles an incumbent lost from most to least favorable

[OSR stands with Israel]

for the Incumbent.


Id say:

Would be close without a third-party candidate and in the case of 1992 a weaker dem candidate as well:
1. 1912
2. 1992

Should have been a 2008 style defeat for the incumbent party:
3. 2020
4. 1976

Very hard to see the incumbent get more than 150 EV in any circumstance:
5. 1980
6. 1932

[OSR stands with Israel]

for the Incumbent.


Id say:

Would be close without a third-party candidate and in the case of 1992 a weaker dem candidate as well:
1. 1912
2. 1992

Should have been a 2008 style defeat for the incumbent party:
3. 2020
4. 1976

Very hard to see the incumbent get more than 150 EV in any circumstance:
5. 1980
6. 1932

Not sure about 1912 and 1992. I think Taft and HW Bush were doomed no matter what. For sure, the EC would have been closer without a 3rd candidate. I just don't believe it would have been that close.

The tipping point state in 1992 was Clinton 4.7 points so I think with no Perot and a weaker dem nominee, I think it’s a tossup race . 1912 It depends on how many Teddy voters Taft and Wilson would get , and given even 1916, it would seem like Taft would get the vast majority of them .