CA-Emerson: Keep +20
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:51:02 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  CA-Emerson: Keep +20
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: CA-Emerson: Keep +20  (Read 974 times)
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 13, 2021, 08:33:55 AM »

Changes from July

60% Keep (+12)
40% Remove (-8)

Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,521
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2021, 08:38:46 AM »

Wow.  Could No win by more than Biden?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2021, 08:41:07 AM »


I feel like +29 might be too high, but I feel like Newsom could definitely top his 22% win in 2018 at this point.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2021, 08:42:30 AM »

When will the polling firms who showed this as a tied race provide Governor Newsom with formal, written apologies?
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2021, 09:24:11 AM »
« Edited: September 13, 2021, 10:35:42 AM by Particle Man »


I feel like +29 might be too high, but I feel like Newsom could definitely top his 22% win in 2018 at this point.

It would definitely be something if it were the exact same result. It would perhaps indicate that there might be ceiling for Republicans where if they do sweep 2022, they probably will lose at least one house either in 2022 or 2024 if Biden is re-elected.

I say this based on very little but it is a hypotheses based on what I’ve been seeing where Biden would at least win popular vote and the House popular vote would be even if the election were held a couple of weeks ago.

I could see Republicans flipping the house margins and getting to 52 senators like that. If things revert, Republicans will probably get half that.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,454
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2021, 10:30:16 AM »

I've seen enough. This is finished. Safe D/Remain.

Being at 4% in the replacement race is kind of embarrassing for someone who until recently held the position of SD Mayor.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,758
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2021, 10:47:28 AM »

Elder said he doesn't support the 1964 Civil Rights Act, and Sir Woodbury and Discord pollsters Snowlabrador thought Larry Elder was Arnold Schwarzenegger
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2021, 10:58:25 AM »

When will the polling firms who showed this as a tied race provide Governor Newsom with formal, written apologies?

You joke, but SurveyUSA basically came out and said that they got the demographic sample horribly wrong when they published that pull with yes winning by 10 in early August.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2021, 01:56:19 PM »

I never bought this race was remotely close. It's blowing up in the Republicans' face and a beautiful thing to watch.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2021, 03:36:06 PM »

Being at 4% in the replacement race is kind of embarrassing for someone who until recently held the position of SD Mayor.

Years of being heralded as the last great hope for the CA GOP and the best statewide candidate they can possibly run, only to be completely rolled over by a conservative radio host, a businessman with a bear and on par with a random state legislator.

Never change, CA GOP
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2021, 04:57:15 PM »

Being at 4% in the replacement race is kind of embarrassing for someone who until recently held the position of SD Mayor.

Years of being heralded as the last great hope for the CA GOP and the best statewide candidate they can possibly run, only to be completely rolled over by a conservative radio host, a businessman with a bear and on par with a random state legislator.

Never change, CA GOP

He’s not a random state legislator. He’s 🤢🤮 my Covid-loving state assemblyman.

Also, don’t forget that Cox has already lost CA-Gov.
Logged
TodayJunior
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,531
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2021, 05:31:43 PM »

Being at 4% in the replacement race is kind of embarrassing for someone who until recently held the position of SD Mayor.

Years of being heralded as the last great hope for the CA GOP and the best statewide candidate they can possibly run, only to be completely rolled over by a conservative radio host, a businessman with a bear and on par with a random state legislator.

Never change, CA GOP

They must really enjoy losing, don’t they?
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2021, 05:44:30 PM »

I never bought this race was remotely close. It's blowing up in the Republicans' face and a beautiful thing to watch.

If only that happened in 2020, or any other election cycle-past or future. California is too smart for this country.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2021, 06:10:48 PM »

Being at 4% in the replacement race is kind of embarrassing for someone who until recently held the position of SD Mayor.

Years of being heralded as the last great hope for the CA GOP and the best statewide candidate they can possibly run, only to be completely rolled over by a conservative radio host, a businessman with a bear and on par with a random state legislator.

Never change, CA GOP

He’s not a random state legislator. He’s 🤢🤮 my Covid-loving state assemblyman.

Also, don’t forget that Cox has already lost CA-Gov.

I'm certainly aware. Though "Completely rolled over by a conservative radio host & gubernatorial loser businessman with a bear" might've been putting salt on the wound
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2021, 11:55:27 PM »

Based... Memerson?

This looks like it might turn out to be more or less spot-on!
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2021, 02:53:17 AM »

Being at 4% in the replacement race is kind of embarrassing for someone who until recently held the position of SD Mayor.

Years of being heralded as the last great hope for the CA GOP and the best statewide candidate they can possibly run, only to be completely rolled over by a conservative radio host, a businessman with a bear and on par with a random state legislator.

Never change, CA GOP

I look to be wrong about "a businessman with a bear", but I wasn't honestly expecting "The last great hope for the CA GOP" to be on par with a random YouTuber.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2021, 12:10:05 AM »

12 point change and they still underestimated Newsom.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2021, 12:55:13 AM »

Based... Memerson?

This looks like it might turn out to be more or less spot-on!

I've never understood why Emerson has been referred to as this. Their polls have always seemed reasonable to me.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 12 queries.