PA or NH - Which Senate race are Republicans more likely to win?

[MT Treasurer]

Please assume that Sununu is running.

In any case, this is PA with or without Sununu, but obviously not because of a Bedford special election.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Going to go with PA in any case. A lot of wishful thinking being bandied about in regards to PA, the PA results in 2020 and lack of self awareness as to previous such declarations dating back over the past decade and half based on similar presumptions that ultimately ended up being incorrect.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

If Sununu runs, NH looks likelier. He's a much stronger candidate than any of the clowns in PA. If Sununu does not run, probably PA by a hair...but I remain skeptical that either would be likely.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

PA (sane)

[SnowLabrador]

If Sununu runs, NH looks likelier. He's a much stronger candidate than any of the clowns in PA. If Sununu does not run, probably PA by a hair...but I remain skeptical that either would be likely.

I still think Parnell would win by 3-5 points given the likely national environment.

[Young Conservative]

The state that voted for Joe Biden by 1 instead of the state that voted for Joe Biden by 7.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a 52/48 D's are very likely to win both, Hassan was trailing Ayotte and Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK were trailing in their races, so being down in NH and NV isn't unusual for Ds

[progressive85]

This far out, I'd say NH only because NH is so much swinger than people think it is.  I hope Chris (Pappas) holds on, but don't know yet about Annie Kuster.

If Governor Sununu enters the race, he is going to make this the closest election in the country and that's the second he starts campaigning.

PA is weird because John Fetterman is probably more known across the state than Sean Parnell (who may not have good name recognition in the East, in Lehigh Valley, the Poconos, and in those very voter-rich Main Line suburbs outside Philadelphia).

Also watch out for Central PA, which is showing tiny signs of moving leftwards.  Tom Wolf in 2018 won Cumberland County, which has always been really conservative but I'm thinking the Harrisburg influences are pouring over into the surrounding areas which might really actually become big-time suburbs by 2040.

Edit: I've read a little of Sean Parnell's bio and now I'd say it would be a real tossup between him and Fetterman.  If it's any other D besides Fetterman, it leans Red.

[Schiff for Senate]

If Sununu runs, NH looks likelier. He's a much stronger candidate than any of the clowns in PA. If Sununu does not run, probably PA by a hair...but I remain skeptical that either would be likely.

This, probably.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With Sununu, New Hampshire.

[S019]

New Hampshire, even if Republicans will probably win both

[DS0816]

New Hampshire is likely the tipping-point state if the 2022 Republicans flip the U.S. Senate. This would follow all currently held Republican seats being retained. This is applicable to Pennsylvania. So, in response to the question asked in this topic thread, the answer is Pennsylvania.

[GALeftist]

I truly struggle to imagine a scenario in which Democrats are doing well enough nationally to flip Pennsylvania and yet Sununu is able to defy that environment to the extent necessary to win a federal race in a Biden+7 state.

[S019]

I truly struggle to imagine a scenario in which Democrats are doing well enough nationally to flip Pennsylvania and yet Sununu is able to defy that environment to the extent necessary to win a federal race in a Biden+7 state.

Dismissing GOP chances in NH by calling it a "Biden+7 state" fundamentally misunderstands New Hampshire. It is a state that swings a lot with the national environment, and also has lots of voters who are open to ticket splitting (just see the Senate race this year). It's a swing state with a small population, in other words it has a small population and lots of voters in the state are up for grabs, hence why it can swing wildly between elections. On the other hand, Pennsylvania has a smaller proportion of swing voters (simply by being a larger state and both the facts that most voters are partisans and the fact that both parties have a sizable base in the state (around 45% or so), (note: the second is definitely not true for NH)) , and thus does not swing as wildly.

[MT Treasurer]

I truly struggle to imagine a scenario in which Democrats are doing well enough nationally to flip Pennsylvania and yet Sununu is able to defy that environment to the extent necessary to win a federal race in a Biden+7 state.

Dismissing GOP chances in NH by calling it a "Biden+7 state" fundamentally misunderstands New Hampshire. It is a state that swings a lot with the national environment, and also has lots of voters who are open to ticket splitting (just see the Senate race this year). It's a swing state with a small population, in other words it has a small population and lots of voters in the state are up for grabs, hence why it can swing wildly between elections. On the other hand, Pennsylvania has a smaller proportion of swing voters (simply by being a larger state and both the facts that most voters are partisans and the fact that both parties have a sizable base in the state (around 45% or so), (note: the second is definitely not true for NH)) , and thus does not swing as wildly.

I think Scott Brown and Kelly Ayotte must have fundamentally misunderstood New Hampshire's "elasticity" at the federal level as well... when only one party benefits from a state's "elasticity" at the federal level even in R-leaning years, that’s not the hallmark of an "elastic" state.

Besides, I can think of several areas in PA which are more "elastic" at the federal level than any region in NH (especially the D-trending southern parts along the MA border) — the Pittsburgh suburbs, Bucks County/Fitzpatrick's district (PA-1), and NEPA, to name a few. Also, there was a lot of split-ticket voting between PA-PRES/PA-SEN in 2016 and Casey significantly outperformed Clinton/Biden in 2018. The down-ballot races have also had a wide range of outcomes in recent elections, so I don’t think PA is nearly as "inelastic" as you make it out to be.

Even if Hassan wins and Kelly/Cortez Masto/Warnock all lose, I’m sure people will keep calling NH an "elastic swing state" that will totally boot out Jeanne Shaheen in another Biden midterm before MI votes out Gary Peters. Falter can already start working on his 2026 Senate redux predictions, I guess.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Rubio is only up by 2 pts and Mandal is only up by 3 do you really think that it's gonna be a red wave and the Election isn't today and it's 1 yr from now, Rs really think a blue wave can't development

When was the last time Rs won an Election 2014/2916 that's 6 yes ago, Rs act like they constantly won Election

[S019]

I truly struggle to imagine a scenario in which Democrats are doing well enough nationally to flip Pennsylvania and yet Sununu is able to defy that environment to the extent necessary to win a federal race in a Biden+7 state.

Dismissing GOP chances in NH by calling it a "Biden+7 state" fundamentally misunderstands New Hampshire. It is a state that swings a lot with the national environment, and also has lots of voters who are open to ticket splitting (just see the Senate race this year). It's a swing state with a small population, in other words it has a small population and lots of voters in the state are up for grabs, hence why it can swing wildly between elections. On the other hand, Pennsylvania has a smaller proportion of swing voters (simply by being a larger state and both the facts that most voters are partisans and the fact that both parties have a sizable base in the state (around 45% or so), (note: the second is definitely not true for NH)) , and thus does not swing as wildly.

I think Scott Brown and Kelly Ayotte must have fundamentally misunderstood New Hampshire's "elasticity" at the federal level as well... when only one party benefits from a state's "elasticity" at the federal level even in R-leaning years, that’s not the hallmark of an "elastic" state.

Kelly Ayotte absolutely did benefit from it, she won in a landslide in 2010 against an incumbent Congressman, I don't really think that's an accident. For why Scott Brown lost, I elaborate on this later, but Jeanne Shaheen had a personal brand, which Maggie Hassan just clearly does not, making her more vulnerable to being defined negatively by Republican TV ads which will be targeted to the large amount of swing voters in New Hampshire.

Besides, I can think of several areas in PA which are more "elastic" at the federal level than any region in NH (especially the D-trending southern parts along the MA border) — the Pittsburgh suburbs, Bucks County/Fitzpatrick's district (PA-1), and NEPA, to name a few. Also, there was a lot of split-ticket voting between PA-PRES/PA-SEN in 2016 and Casey significantly outperformed Clinton/Biden in 2018. The down-ballot races have also had a wide range of outcomes in recent elections, so I don’t think PA is nearly as "inelastic" as you make it out to be.

Bucks County is not all that elastic at the federal level, same with the Pittsburgh suburbs. Also I think it's notable that PA still tends to be somewhat close for Democrats in Republican wave years, while they tend to run away with it in Democratic wave years, maybe this means the votes for a decisive GOP victory in Pennsylvania are simply hard to come by.

Even if Hassan wins and Kelly/Cortez Masto/Warnock all lose, I’m sure people will keep calling NH an "elastic swing state" that will totally boot out Jeanne Shaheen in another Biden midterm before MI votes out Gary Peters. Falter can already start working on his 2026 Senate redux predictions, I guess.

I just don't see a Republican wave like that occurring and not even touching New Hampshire. If this happens my best guess would be neither Sununu nor Ayotte ran and the GOP ended up with some third rate candidate or their campaign totally imploded. Jeanne Shaheen also has a far stronger brand than Maggie Hassan does, she basically matched Clinton's performance in 2016, while Shaheen won in a year in which nearly every other close Senate contest broke for the Republicans, which suggests she's more or less Generic D, Sununu can absolutely peel away enough Biden voters from Generic D to doom Generic D if 2022 looks anything remotely resembling a Republican leaning year. I do think there's a very good reason why Sununu passed on taking on Shaheen and is looking at taking on Hassan much more seriously, there's also a reason why Ayotte never floated a comeback against Shaheen but is actively pondering one against Hassan. Couple this with Hassan's middling approvals, and frankly, the argument that she doesn't start this race from behind or at least even is either based on extreme hackishness or a denial of reality.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

NH until Schroedinger’s Sununu resolves

[DaleCooper]

PA. If Republicans run somebody better than "I am not a witch" or Roy Moore yet still lose PA in 2022 then they need to do some serious soul searching before 2024, because that'd be one of the worst signs for them second perhaps only to losing Wisconsin Senate and failing to unseat Evers.

[Ferguson97]

It's much easier to win an open seat than beat an incumbent, so Pennsylvania.

[Xing]

Pennsylvania, even if I think that the two could vote similarly, mainly because they have a higher floor in Pennsylvania.