How would the current US electorate vote in past presidential elections?

[patzer]

Say the current electorate gets asked how they would have voted in past elections, knowing what they do now. I'm wondering how the results would differ from what happened in reality.

My thoughts are thus-

2020: Biden most likely wins with the same map, though I wouldn't rule out enough leftists being frustrated with his presidency to flip the closest swing states (AZ, GA, WI) and deliver the election to Trump.

2016: I think Clinton could win this one, as the advantage of hindsight regarding the pandemic leads to enough people in MI, PA, WI deserting Trump. But again, could go either way.

2012: Quite a few current Republicans wouldn't be very happy with Romney as the nominee but wouldn't like Obama either. There'd be a higher number of non-voters and 3rd party voters.
I think I'd say Obama still wins, thanks to a lack of enthusiasm with Romney.

2008: Again John McCain is somewhat different to the modern Republican Party. Some states like Indiana are bound to flip red, but in the end a Obama win again seems most likely.

2004: I think John Kerry wins this one, given the relatively greater dissatisfaction with neoconservatism/interventionism nowadays.

2000: Similarly, I think this election goes to Al Gore.

[MATTROSE94]

Here’s my list going back to 1789:

2024: Donald Trump
2020: Donald Trump
2016: Donald Trump
2012: Barack Obama
2008: Barack Obama
2004: John Kerry
2000: Al Gore
1996: Ross Perot
1992: Ross Perot
1988: George H.W. Bush
1984: Ronald Reagan
1980: Ronald Reagan
1976: Gerald Ford
1972: Richard Nixon
1968: George Wallace
1964: Lyndon Johnson
1960: John F. Kennedy
1956: Dwight Eisenhower
1952: Dwight Eisenhower
1948: Harry Truman
1944: Franklin Roosevelt
1940: Franklin Roosevelt
1936: Franklin Roosevelt
1932: Franklin Roosevelt
1928: Al Smith
1924: Calvin Coolidge
1920: James Cox
1916: Charles Evans Hughes
1912: Theodore Roosevelt
1908: William Jennings Bryan
1904: Theodore Roosevelt
1900: William Jennings Bryan
1896: William Jennings Bryan
1892: Benjamin Harrison
1888: Benjamin Harrison
1884: James Blaine
1880: Winfield Scott Handcock
1876: Samuel Tilden
1872: Ulysses S. Grant
1868: Horacio Seymour
1864: Abraham Lincoln
1860: Abraham Lincoln
1856: John Fremont
1852: Winfield Scott
1848: Lewis Cass
1844: James K. Polk
1840: Martin Van Buren
1836: William Henry Harrison
1832: Andrew Jackson
1828: Andrew Jackson
1824: Andrew Jackson
1820: James Monroe
1816: James Monroe
1812: DeWitt Clinton
1808: James Madison
1804: Thomas Jefferson
1800: Thomas Jefferson
1796: Thomas Jefferson
1792: George Washington
1789: George Washington

Overall, the only election results that change are 1812, 1824, 1836, 1840, 1848, 1852, 1856, 1868, 1876, 1880, 1884, 1892, 1896, 1900, 1908, 1912, 1916, 1920, 1928, 1968, 1976, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2020. The elections that I am the least sure about are 1964, 1968, and 1972.

[darklordoftech]

Here’s some that would likely to differ from the winner at the time:
1912: Roosevelt
1916: Hughes
1928: Smith
1968: Humphrey
1972: McGovern
1976: Ford
1988: Dukakis
1992: Bush
1996: Dole
2000: Gore
2004: Kerry