buritobr
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« on: September 10, 2021, 06:32:48 PM » |
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Since Germany doesn't have a "winner takes all" rule like the Electoral College in the US, the winning parties in the states doesn't matter too much, but it is interesting to see which party had the plurality of the Zweitstimme in the federal elections.
1949 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Schleswig-Holstein SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse, Lower Saxony CSU: Bavaria
1953 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Lowe Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Schleswig-Holstein SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse CSU: Bavaria
1957 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Lowe Saxony, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein SPD: Bremen, Hamburg CSU: Bavaria
1961 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Lowe Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse CSU: Bavaria
1965 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Lowe Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse CSU: Bavaria
1969 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Lower Saxony, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia CSU: Bavaria
1972 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein CSU: Bavaria
1976 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Schleswig-Holstein CSU: Bavaria
1980 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, , Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein CSU: Bavaria
1983 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Lowe Saxony, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein SPD: Bremen, Hamburg CSU: Bavaria
1987 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Lowe Saxony, Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate, Schleswig-Holstein SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saarland CSU: Bavaria
1990 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Brandenburg, Lowe Saxony, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein, Thuringia SPD: Bremen, Hamburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saarland CSU: Bavaria
1994 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Lowe Saxony, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein, Thuringia SPD: Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saarland CSU: Bavaria
1998 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Saxony SPD: Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse, Lowe Saxony, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein, Thuringia CSU: Bavaria
2002 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony SPD: Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse, Lowe Saxony, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein, Thuringia CSU: Bavaria
2005 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony SPD: Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse, Lowe Saxony, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein, Thuringia CSU: Bavaria
2009 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Lowe Saxony, Hamburg, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, , Saarland, Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, Thuringia SPD: Bremen CSU: Bavaria Linke: Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt
2013 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Brandenburg, Lowe Saxony, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein, Thuringia SPD: Bremen, Hamburg CSU: Bavaria
2017 CDU: Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Brandenburg, Lowe Saxony, Hamburg, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein, Thuringia SPD: Bremen CSU: Bavaria AfD: Saxony
Observations Unlike the USA since 1992, there are few states in Germany which always vote for the same party. If a party can have a good national margin, this party wins the majority of the states. The few safe states are the conservative states in the south and the social democratic city-states. The CSU always won Bavaria, the CDU always won Baden-Württemberg, the SPD always won Bremen, the CDU won Hamburg for the first time only in 2009. The CDU can win Berlin because the left-wing vote is split between SPD and Linke. Bremen is the unique state in Germany the CDU never won... and Bavaria too. The Linke and AfD have already won states in the East. The FDP and the Greens never won states. In early 2021, we could think that th Greens would win in at least one state this year. But not... In the US, the map ever repeated. In Germany, 1957 and 1983 had the same map. 2002 and 2005 too.
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