September 2021; who wins in 2024?

[S019]

Why are you bullish on an unpopular ex-president returning to office?

American history is a story of maybe a dozen great men (hopefully women soon, too). Like him or not, Trump is one of those great men that has defined our history - for better or for worse. His story isn't over.

Yes, defined our history by sending a mob on the Capitol and spreading misinformation about the election, he's better than the 1850s era disasters, but other than, it's hard to find a President worse than him.

No, Bush did do some good things in office, and the negativity of his wars is largely overrated, we did topple a brutal dictator in Iraq and install a functioning democracy.

Since you are such a fan of the Iraq war, I wonder when you plan on enlisting for the next ground war?

Since you are such a big of fan of Trump, I wonder what you plan doing if he establishes a dictatorship, see I can do this, too.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Why are you bullish on an unpopular ex-president returning to office?

American history is a story of maybe a dozen great men (hopefully women soon, too). Like him or not, Trump is one of those great men that has defined our history - for better or for worse. His story isn't over.

I keep thinking about this "great man" theory of our political you're espousing, and I find it intriguing.  Just as fun mental exercise, I tried considering whom each generation's "great man" would be and came up with three names for each:

1776-1800:  George Washington, John Adams, Alexander Hamilton
1800-1824:  John Marshall, DeWitt Clinton, Harrison Gray Otis
1824-1848:  John Quincy Adams, Henry Clay, Daniel Webster
1848-1872:  William H. Seward, Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant
1872-1896:  James G. Blaine, John Sherman, Benjamin Harrison
1896-1920:  William Jennings Bryan, Champ Clark, Woodrow Wilson
1920-1944:  William Gibbs McAdoo, Al Smith, Franklin D. Roosevelt
1944-1968:  Harry S. Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson
1968-1992:  Hubert Humphrey, Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis
1992-2016:  Bill Clinton, John Kerry, Barack Obama

[here2view]

Biden/Harris win 282-256 over Trump/Noem, with Arizona and Wisconsin flipping to the GOP.

[DS0816]

?

I’m thinking more along the lines, Prevailing Political Party.

I would guess, at this point, the Democrats.

The presidency of Joe Biden is tasked with getting us past this point in history with COVID–19. If the Biden presidency deals with it efficiently and sufficiently—and that the people feel more optimistic with their surviving it—the Republicans won’t be winning their pickup of the presidency as soon as 2024. (They’re good for midterms.)

We are also likely in a realigning period, for the presidency of the United States, favoring the Democrats. They won three of the last four cycles: 2008, 2012, and 2020. The Republicans’ win was with Donald Trump in 2016. That is a 40-year parallel, so far, of the 1968 Republican realigning presidential election of Richard Nixon. The Republicans won 1968, 1972, and 1980. The win by the Democrats, from that period, was with Jimmy Carter in 1976. (Historically, every political party which won three of four presidential-election cycles experienced a realigning period—for the presidency—in their favor.) The Republicans went on to win in 1984. If the Democrats go on to win in 2024, that would also make it four-for-five. That would be another example of a 40-year parallel.

The position the present Republican Party are in is unfavorable. They get to act like an opposition party. They say that COVID–19 isn’t so bad. A number of their politicians have died from the disease. But, hey—not everyone can be saved! That is not an answer. That is what we get from a political party on the unfavorable side of a realigning period.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't losing until he loses a blue wall state not a red wall state next yr NV, NH, MI, PA or WI, that's why Trump will never be Prez of he runs again and Rs don't crack the Blue wall he WILL LOSE

[President Johnson]

Jeb!

In all seriousness, Joe Biden is obviously favored. A lot can happen though.

[ShadowRocket]

Joe Biden. My current guess is that he wins a rematch against Trump, with a map that looks similar to 2020 give or take a state or two.

[TarHeelDem]

Biden probably takes it pretty easily. He beat Trump, a formidable political opponent, just last year. I don't see anyone the GOP is decently likely to nominate in 2024 giving him much trouble.

[MATTROSE94]

Why are you bullish on an unpopular ex-president returning to office?

American history is a story of maybe a dozen great men (hopefully women soon, too). Like him or not, Trump is one of those great men that has defined our history - for better or for worse. His story isn't over.

Yes, defined our history by sending a mob on the Capitol and spreading misinformation about the election, he's better than the 1850s era disasters, but other than, it's hard to find a President worse than him.

George W. Bush actually was somewhat tolerable outside of foreign policy and some of his domestic policies. He is ranked similar to Jimmy Carter IMO.

[MT Treasurer]

Biden probably takes it pretty easily. He beat Trump, a formidable political opponent, just last year. I don't see anyone the GOP is decently likely to nominate in 2024 giving him much trouble.

Not this again.

Anyway, it’s a Tossup. If forced to pick a winner, I’d say Biden, but with a considerably narrower margin in the tipping-point state than Obama. He’s extremely vulnerable for an incumbent president, though.

[TarHeelDem]

Biden probably takes it pretty easily. He beat Trump, a formidable political opponent, just last year. I don't see anyone the GOP is decently likely to nominate in 2024 giving him much trouble.

Not this again.

Anyway, it’s a Tossup. If forced to pick a winner, I’d say Biden, but with a considerably narrower margin in the tipping-point state than Obama. He’s extremely vulnerable for an incumbent president, though.

I hate him more than anyone, I think the man's evil incarnate, but I don't think you win a major party's presidential primary against sixteen other candidates (especially while having no formal political experience yourself) without considerable and innate political skills.

[pbrower2a]

Biden if healthy. That's all I can say.

[EugeneDebs]

Josh Hawley.

[West_Midlander]

Biden 46% chance
Trump 40% chance
Another Republican 9% chance
Harris 4% chance
Another Democrat 1% chance

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump pulls a Cleveland.

[Suburbia]

Biden if healthy.

If not Harris, barely.

If Donald Trump wins in 2024, watch America burn and you will see mass violence like never seen before.

Why would anyone want to return Trump back to the WH?

[Suburban Republican]

Trump, probably.

Republicans have an entrenched advantage in the electoral college which is only going to grow as Republicans become more dependent on rural voters and voter suppression. Biden only won by less than 45,000 votes in certain swing states, despite winning the popular vote by more than 7 million in 2020 (~4.5% margin of victory). In order for Democrats to win in 2024, they need to re-nominate Biden, without whom they lack the incumbency advantage, and the economy must be going strong (which isn't a certainty because of COVID and the lasting effects of stimulus).

[Agonized-Statism]

Vice President Harris

Bring forth your pitchforks, your torches, your guillotines

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, Biden MI, PA AND WI ARENT GOING BACT TO BENGHAZI HILLARY NORMS NO MATTER HOW MANY TIMES Conservative say Johnson is safe, NO HES NOT, Johnson won on back of Benghazi Hillary too

It's gonna be tough no matter whom D's nominate for Prez for the 2016 to trend again, Trump was lucky to win due to Gary Johnson taking enough support, Bush W didn't win in 2000 but he had Karl Rove that kept him discipline and didn't mount an.insurrection and won in 2084 due to Blunder of John Edwards not Wes Clark

[Inmate Trump]

I doubt Trump would win again.

He left a lot of people scarred.  If he runs, you automatically have a good portion of people turning out to vote who might not have otherwise.  I know that applies to people voting for him as well as against him.  The only thing with that is there are more people against him than there are for him.

Of course, their votes might be in vain since so many GOP legislators are working to make them invalid.  But assuming it's a fair election, he won't win.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I still find it baffling and kind of hilarious that Michelle Obama who has literally never expressed even the slightest hint that she's interested in running for office is always included in these polls.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Still sticking with my "Biden wins a small but comfortable re-election ala 2020 (because polarization), dies in 2025 or 2026" prediction. Let's see how it plays out.

[SWE]

As long as Biden is alive he'll win, and the outcome will never really be that up in the air.

[SWE]

Michelle Obama's more likely to win than Biden and Kamala Harris at this point.

She's also more likely to win than any one Republican, but that's because the entire country, except for the Q cult hates Republicans.

lmao

I have equal odds of being the next president as Michelle Obama has

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump 35%
Harris 25%
D field 20%
R field 10%
DeSantis 5%
Biden 5%

Lol you Rs really think Biden is gonna remain in the 40% range, his Approvals will go back up, and Trump will never be Prez ever again