CA Recall - Berkley/IGS - No +21
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:55:06 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  CA Recall - Berkley/IGS - No +21
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: CA Recall - Berkley/IGS - No +21  (Read 1208 times)
THG
TheTarHeelGent
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,192
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: September 10, 2021, 09:35:40 PM »



damn, you've gotta share where you get your supply of this grade-A copium. You do realize the n on this poll is 6550 LV. What crosstabs are you even implying make no sense, literally all of them are perfectly within expectations relative to every single other poll out there.

Is it grade a-Copium to doubt a poll that has Sacramento County voting the same as Orange County?
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,932
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: September 10, 2021, 09:47:34 PM »



damn, you've gotta share where you get your supply of this grade-A copium. You do realize the n on this poll is 6550 LV. What crosstabs are you even implying make no sense, literally all of them are perfectly within expectations relative to every single other poll out there.

Is it grade a-Copium to doubt a poll that has Sacramento County voting the same as Orange County?

It actually says Sacramento/North Valley, not Sacramento County. That would include not just Sacramento County, but the more Republican Sacramento Valley as well.
Logged
THG
TheTarHeelGent
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,192
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: September 10, 2021, 10:33:20 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2021, 10:46:27 PM by Freethinker Tom Rice »

The Sac Valley is more Republican, but their total population combined isn’t enough to offset Sac County itself by the amount that it would vote similarly to Orange, which is like D+24 and has a population of 1.5 million people. At best the entire “Sac Valley” is D+15 in the 2020 election, and the definition of the “Sacramento Valley” is incredibly loose (some versions of it unlike Stockton whereas others include all of Norcal?).

Also, if this “poll” is accurate, white voters swing 5-10 points to the left but black voters swing 15 points Republican (relative to 2020), and post graduates vote the same as non-high school/college voters. Which is verifiably false, even in California.

So yeah, I call BS on the crosstabs and this poll’s methodology. That doesn’t change the fact that I believe that this recall will still lose by likely to safe margins, of course.

Logged
Pedocon Theory is not a theory
CalamityBlue
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 839


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.61

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: September 15, 2021, 11:00:21 AM »

The Sac Valley is more Republican, but their total population combined isn’t enough to offset Sac County itself by the amount that it would vote similarly to Orange, which is like D+24 and has a population of 1.5 million people. At best the entire “Sac Valley” is D+15 in the 2020 election, and the definition of the “Sacramento Valley” is incredibly loose (some versions of it unlike Stockton whereas others include all of Norcal?).

Also, if this “poll” is accurate, white voters swing 5-10 points to the left but black voters swing 15 points Republican (relative to 2020), and post graduates vote the same as non-high school/college voters. Which is verifiably false, even in California.

So yeah, I call BS on the crosstabs and this poll’s methodology. That doesn’t change the fact that I believe that this recall will still lose by likely to safe margins, of course.



In the end, the question is: "Where does the Berkeley/IGS poll go to get an apology?"
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.03 seconds with 12 queries.