I wanted to revisit this post. I think my original projections could still happen, but I think it would take longer (perhaps 2040's at the earliest compared to 2030's) and if current trends continue, I anticipate that the Dems share of minority voters will shrink as Blacks in particular with conservative views shift from the Dems to the GOP.
This is my new map projection for the next few decades, at least until there's another major realignment. Due to the internet and social media, I've noticed that the increased partisan nature of this country is the primary reason why it has remained relatively the same politically since 2000.
Dark red: Almost certainly Dem
Medium red: Democratic strongholds but could go GOP in a '72/'84 type landslide
Light red: Dem states that could go Rep in a '56/'16 style landslide (Just Minnesota)
Very light red: Swing-states; lean Dem
Very light blue: Swing-states; lean Rep
Light blue: GOP states that could go Dem in a '96/'08 style landslide
Medium blue: Republican strongholds that could go Dem in a '32/'64 type landslide
Dark blue: Almost certainly Rep
Some people might be curious on why Utah is a safer color compared to a state like North Dakota, even if it is trending blue. Utah was a bad fit for Trump, but it still voted for him by almost 20 points. Even if the GOP remains the Trump party, I don't see Utah flipping in the next 10-15 years. If an Obama '08 type candidate runs and conditions are bad enough, the plains states including the Dakotas are more likely to flip than Utah. While Biden improved compared to prior Dems, it doesn't mean Utah is going to become a swing state. The electorate is still very conservative, particularly on social issues and are not likely to support the Dem party despite their differing views on issues such as immigration.
Swing-state analyses:
Alaska: Dems may take the upper hand due to the state's stances on issues including immigration and climate change.
Montana: Still a Rep state but elastic. People seem to forget that Montana went from Bush +21 to McCain +2 4 years later. If conditions are unpopular enough, I still see the possibility of Montana voting Dem. After all they recently had a Dem governor and they have a Dem senator. The conditions just have to be right and with climate change becoming more a dire issue, I see Montana moving to the left compared to where it is now.
Florida: I see Florida continuing to become more Republican as retirees/latino refugees move in. I anticipate it'll become a consistent Rep state but one that could be competitive during a strong cycle for Dems.
The Rust Belt: Continuing to trend away but it is not a lost cause for Dems, even in a state such as Iowa & Ohio. Trump happened to be a great fit for that region but it can still vote Dem if the conditions are right. This area is not a fiscally conservative area and is not nearly as socially conservative as areas to the South. Especially if the GOP abandons protectionism, I see it moving back to the Dems as immigration/trade seems to be the primary reason why Trump and Republicans did as well as they did in this region.
The Sun Belt: Continuing to trend Dem, particularly in suburban areas as immigration and climate change become hot button issues. Some states including Nevada might vote Rep one more time, but I think the long-term prognosis is good as long as the state party doesn't mess it up. Climate change will become more important due to the ongoing drought and the area is becoming more hospitable to immigrants compared to even 10 years ago.
Texas: I think Texas will trend Dem, but remain a swing state. Dem growth in urban/suburban areas plus new refugees are changing the demographics of the state to favor Dems. At the same time, conservative Latinos are trending R, although that area is largely rural and unpopulated and might only be a slight hiccup in Texas's transition leftward.
