Kansas trends

[CadetCashBoi]

Is there any chance that Kansas becomes more competitive at all in the near future? I know there was some backlash against the GOP after Brownback was governor and I wonder if whatever allowed Biden to flip Riley County could be replicated elsewhere in the state.

[THG]

I think the growth of Johnson County is definitely a concerning trend for Republicans.

Even though some people still believe in the concept that Utah can be competitive (which I think is entirely misleading), I believe that Kansas has significantly better long term trends for Democrats.

[Roll Roons]

If Democrats want to expand the map (which is kind of necessary if they want to be able to win the Senate), Kansas is definitely a future target.

One thing is that they'd probably need to flip Sedgwick in addition to getting good margins out of JoCo and Shawnee.

[EastOfEden]

If Democrats want to expand the map (which is kind of necessary if they want to be able to win the Senate), Kansas is definitely a future target.

One thing is that they'd probably need to flip Sedgwick in addition to getting good margins out of JoCo and Shawnee.

Sedgwick is the bellwether, actually. It consistently votes slightly to the left of the state, a pattern which will persist at almost any election margin with current coalitions. So a presidential Sedgwick flip would mean Democrats are probably just one wave year away from winning big in the state.

year, office, sedgwick, state:

2020, pres, R+12, R+14.5
2020, sen, R+9, R+11.5
2018, gov, D+6, D+6*
2016, pres, R+18, R+20.5
2016, sen, R+27, R+30
2014, gov, R+2, R+3
2014, sen, R+7, R+10.5
2012, pres, R+19, R+21.5
2010, gov, R+30, R+31
2010, sen, R+43, R+44

*Sedgwick actually did vote very slightly (0.03 points) to the right of the state in 2018. This is because of Kelly's extreme margins in the northeast. She almost matched Sebelius 2006 (D+17 statewide result) in Douglas and Shawnee.