Ohio-SEN, Redfield & Wilton: It's a tossup

[NewYorkExpress]

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/the-view-from-ohio-approval-of-political-leaders-and-hypothetical-voting-intention/

In comparison to the negative net approval rating given to President Joe Biden by residents of Ohio, views of the state’s Senators and Governor are relatively more positive. 42% approve and 28% disapprove of Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown’s overall job performance (a net approval rating of +14%), and 34% approve and 29% disapprove of Republican Senator Rob Portman’s performance (a net approval rating of +5%). Amid this positive net approval rating, Portman—whose seat will be up for re-election in November 2022—has announced he will not be seeking a third term, with his seat likely to be highly contested.

Indeed, our hypothetical voting intention polling finds that the election of Ohio’s new junior Senator could be a close one. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 37% of respondents would vote for Democratic US Representative Tim Ryan and 36% would vote for author and Republican candidate J D Vance, if they were the respective nominees for the Senate seat. Results are similar if Tim Ryan were to run against former Chair of the Ohio Republican Party Jane Timken, in which case 38% say they would vote for Ryan and 36% would vote for Timken. If Tim Ryan were to run against former State Treasurer and pro-Trump candidate Josh Mandel, however, the hypothetical Republican nominee leads with 41% to Ryan’s 37% of the vote. Even so, relatively high proportions of 23%, 22%, and 17%, respectively, say they don’t know how they would vote in these hypothetical Senate Election scenarios. This level of current indecision further underlines that the 2022 Senate Election in Ohio will be one to watch.

[SnowLabrador]

We've seen this story before. Undecideds are overwhelmingly Republican. Mandel will win by 10-15 points at a minimum.

[NewYorkExpress]

We've seen this story before. Undecideds are overwhelmingly Republican. Mandel will win by 10-15 points at a minimum.

I agree that if Mandel wins the nomination, he's favored, but I find it hard to believe he's going to win by 10-15 points or more, given he's proven to be an atrocious campaigner in the past.

If Mandel wins the nomination, I'd say the final margin will be somewhere between Mandel +2, and Mandel +7.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I struggle to find the energy to post polls when even non-internals regularly show giant Crist/Rubio ticket splits and actual Tim Ryan leads.

What we know from surveys like these is that the industry is still broken. It's unfortunate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is exciting news everyone said that Ryan can't win, and he is beating VANCE

[Pericles]

Lol when neither candidate is at 40% the poll is useless.

[NewYorkExpress]

Lol when neither candidate is at 40% the poll is useless.

When Mandel is polled, he's at 41%.

Still not helpful, and their Gubernatorial numbers aren't helping much beyond setting the narrative that DeWine is safe if he wins renomination.

[Tekken_Guy]

Mandel’s advantage over Timken and Vance is almost entirely name rec at the moment. Ryan is having around the same range in all three matchups, but Mandel takes in a small number of people undecided on Timken or Vance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Ryan can win OH, he won't lose Mahoning County, he is from Younger, then Grayson and Fried can win in FL

Rs chances in both FL and OH are overrated

Vance and Mandel won't win by 20 like Portman did with Lee Fisher and Strickland

[MT Treasurer]

I already foresee and simultaneously nominate "Mandel loses before Sununu/CCM" as the worst "battleground take" of this entire election cycle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I already foresee and simultaneously nominate "Mandel loses before Sununu/CCM" as the worst "battleground take" of this entire election cycle.

Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK were trailing and so was Hassan against Ayotte, D's trailing I'm NV and NH is not a big deal

Oh, and Rubio is only up 2 in FL and FL has 40% Latino like California

I doubt Laxalt and Sununu are up by nine pts

[BigSerg]

Hahaha, Sure Jean

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hahaha, Sure Jean

Ryan is from Youngstown, and Brown is from Akron dead center in Mahoning County and Trump overperformed there just like he did in Miami,  Brown won in 2018 by flipping Mahoning County and so will Ryan it has about 40% Afro Americans and Arabs living there


60% of WC live in Suburbs and rural counties while 40% to 50%of the cities of Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland and Toleda are dominant by Arabs and Blk
Arabs are Conservative but far less so than under Trump than Bush w

[S019]

This race is Safe R, I buy that Ryan will get at least 40%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sure S019, Vance and Mandel aren't POPULAR like Rob Portman was and never will be


OH have BLKs in the State and isn't IA WHERE IT'S PREDOMINANTLY WC

[S019]

Sure S019, Vance and Mandel aren't POPULAR like Rob Portman was and never will be


OH have BLKs in the State and isn't IA WHERE IT'S PREDOMINANTLY WC

I know that this is your schtick, but I've already told you plenty why Ohio won't be competitive, you are free to continue believing what you want, just expect to be disappointed. I really don't have the energy to hammer the same point over and over again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH will be competetive you wait and see, Tim Ryan is fundraising all over Acr blue Mandel and Vance aren't Rob Portman, we won OH before and will win it again

Who cares if you don't have the energy to hammer this poinr

[S019]

OH will be competetive you wait and see, Tim Ryan is fundraising all over Acr blue Mandel and Vance aren't Rob Portman, we won OH before and will win it again

Who cares if you don't have the energy to hammer this poinr

If Ohio isn't competitive then will you leave the forum for a year? Also Senator Amy McGrath can attest to the importance fundraising in a hostile state. It's just time to give up on Ohio, our money is better spent in Texas and Florida anyways, 2018 should've been the sign that we should give up on it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 304 map now, but what if Biden Approvals jump up to 53% and OH, FL and NC will be in play,  just like when Biden Approvals were at 53% before and polls showed competetive races in Red wall states

It's good to expand the map in order to keep House

[ElectionsGuy]

I'd be shocked if Ohio polling didn't show a toss-up. After all those Biden +1's last year.