Why is Nevada swinging and trending republican ?

[BabyAlligator]

It has been the case since 2012.

2008 : Obama +12,5
It voted 5.3 pts more democratic than the nation.

2012 : Obama +6,68
It voted 2.78 pts more democratic than the nation. It swung 5.82 pts to the right and trended 1.92 to the right.

2016 : Clinton +2.42
It voted 0.32 pts more democratic than the nation. It swung 4.26 pts to the right and trended 2.46 pts to the right.

2020 : Biden+2.39
It voted 2 pts more republican than the nation. Is swung 0.03 pts to the right and trended 2.3 pts to the right.

[TodayJunior]

Mainly the average level of education (I think), but there is a hard Democratic floor here, which will not be easy for any Republican to crack. Dems are still favored here and you can see it by who holds all the statewide elected offices.

[GeorgeBFree]

Migration from tax conscious Californians. NV has always had a more libertarian culture and tourist dependent economy which makes COVID lockdown policy unpopular there.

[Cyrusman]

- libertarian anti government mindset somewhat like Arizona
- low percentage of college graduates
- working class state
-Clark county does not vote anywhere near as democrat as other counties with a major U.S county.

The main thing that saves the dems is strong union support in Vegas.

[David Hume]

- libertarian anti government mindset somewhat like Arizona
- low percentage of college graduates
- working class state
-Clark county does not vote anywhere near as democrat as other counties with a major U.S county.

The main thing that saves the dems is strong union support in Vegas.

agree
one more thing: Reid machine is declining. 

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

- libertarian anti government mindset somewhat like Arizona
- low percentage of college graduates
- working class state
-Clark county does not vote anywhere near as democrat as other counties with a major U.S county.

The main thing that saves the dems is strong union support in Vegas.

agree
one more thing: Reid machine is declining. 

I’m not sure that we can say it’s declining yet. 2020 was a bad year for it, admittedly, but I wonder how it will do once tourism is back up and running. I would agree with the first quoted post though. Nevada generally has a highly transient population, which makes it relatively easy for migration to affect the results.

[THG]

- libertarian anti government mindset somewhat like Arizona
- low percentage of college graduates
- working class state
-Clark county does not vote anywhere near as democrat as other counties with a major U.S county.

The main thing that saves the dems is strong union support in Vegas.

agree
one more thing: Reid machine is declining. 

I’m not sure that we can say it’s declining yet. 2020 was a bad year for it, admittedly, but I wonder how it will do once tourism is back up and running. I would agree with the first quoted post though. Nevada generally has a highly transient population, which makes it relatively easy for migration to affect the results.

The DSA has taken over a significant portion of the state party’s resources. I believe that it is definitely dying off slowly.