CA-Suffolk University: No +17

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1435638371368554505

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1435645433821421572

[sguberman]

I think we are at the point where it is more likely that Newsom runs ahead of 2018 than he loses

[wbrocks67]

I think we are at the point where it is more likely that Newsom runs ahead of 2018 than he loses

Which would make those constant POLITICO "NEWSOM IN TROUBLE!!!" headlines even more ridiculous.

[President Johnson]

Democrats have woken up and come home.

Elder becoming the face of the recall didn't help either. I knew Ahnuld. I watched him serving. He was a friend of mine. And Mr. Elder, you're no Ahnuld.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Safe D at this point

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I think we are at the point where it is more likely that Newsom runs ahead of 2018 than he loses

Which would make those constant POLITICO "NEWSOM IN TROUBLE!!!" headlines even more ridiculous.

Or the "Orange County is gonna vote against the recall by double-digits & revert to GOP dominance" and "Latinos are gonna vote for the recall in droves because Miami/RGV/LA swings" takes on here

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, it's fair to say, I think, this is pretty much over. Not sure if the polls showing a tight race were ever that accurate. Kind of reminds me of early KY polls in national races and Dems getting their hopes up just before it slips away and before there's a blowout. That said, Newsom and CA Dems have put some real effort in this paying off as we speak.

Newsom outrunning 2018 is for sure more likely than losing, though I expect 43-57% against removal from office.