What would the vote on Gonzalez v Raich be today?

[lfromnj]

This would be interesting once again.

[brucejoel99]

Thomas & Gorsuch would obviously side with Raich, as might Roberts, & I think Kavanaugh & ACB would join them too. I'm not at all confident on Alito's vote: if the case involved literally anything but drugs, then he'd side with Thomas & Gorsuch, but this was obviously a drugs case. For the same reason, I'm conflicted on whether or not Sotomayor would join Breyer & Kagan in finding for Gonzales: Breyer is clearly pro-Wickard, as his join in this case emphasized, & Kagan is cut from the same judicial cloth as him, so their siding with Gonzales is pretty predictable, but I could definitely see Sotomayor flipping away from them on a Commerce Clause case involving marijuana - which have always presented a bit of a conflict between the outcome-based views of "political liberals" & principle-based holdings of "judicial liberals" - for the sake of the outcome.

So, anything from a (facially weird) 5-4 to a (facially weird) 7-2 for Raich, compared to the real-life 6-3 for Gonzales.

[Skill and Chance]

Thomas & Gorsuch would obviously side with Raich, as might Roberts, & I think Kavanaugh & ACB would join them too. I'm not at all confident on Alito's vote: if the case involved literally anything but drugs, then he'd side with Thomas & Gorsuch, but this was obviously a drugs case. For the same reason, I'm conflicted on whether or not Sotomayor would join Breyer & Kagan in finding for Gonzales: Breyer is clearly pro-Wickard, as his join in this case emphasized, & Kagan is cut from the same judicial cloth as him, so their siding with Gonzales is pretty predictable, but I could definitely see Sotomayor flipping away from them on a Commerce Clause case involving marijuana - which have always presented a bit of a conflict between the outcome-based views of "political liberals" & principle-based holdings of "judicial liberals" - for the sake of the outcome.

So, anything from a (facially weird) 5-4 to a (facially weird) 7-2 for Raich, compared to the real-life 6-3 for Gonzales.

It ends up being 4/3/2.  Breyer, Kagan, Sotomayor, and Alito vote to uphold the law in full.  Gorsuch and Thomas vote to strike down the law.  Roberts, joined by Kavanaugh and Barrett, applies NFIB v. Sebelius to allow the government to collect fines from the defendants, but voids all other criminal penalties, treating any fines as an exercise of taxing power.   

[David Hume]

Thomas & Gorsuch would obviously side with Raich, as might Roberts, & I think Kavanaugh & ACB would join them too. I'm not at all confident on Alito's vote: if the case involved literally anything but drugs, then he'd side with Thomas & Gorsuch, but this was obviously a drugs case. For the same reason, I'm conflicted on whether or not Sotomayor would join Breyer & Kagan in finding for Gonzales: Breyer is clearly pro-Wickard, as his join in this case emphasized, & Kagan is cut from the same judicial cloth as him, so their siding with Gonzales is pretty predictable, but I could definitely see Sotomayor flipping away from them on a Commerce Clause case involving marijuana - which have always presented a bit of a conflict between the outcome-based views of "political liberals" & principle-based holdings of "judicial liberals" - for the sake of the outcome.

So, anything from a (facially weird) 5-4 to a (facially weird) 7-2 for Raich, compared to the real-life 6-3 for Gonzales.

So you agree that Alito prioritize tough on crime over anything else, as I pointed out in my tough on crime justice post?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Thomas & Gorsuch would obviously side with Raich, as might Roberts, & I think Kavanaugh & ACB would join them too. I'm not at all confident on Alito's vote: if the case involved literally anything but drugs, then he'd side with Thomas & Gorsuch, but this was obviously a drugs case. For the same reason, I'm conflicted on whether or not Sotomayor would join Breyer & Kagan in finding for Gonzales: Breyer is clearly pro-Wickard, as his join in this case emphasized, & Kagan is cut from the same judicial cloth as him, so their siding with Gonzales is pretty predictable, but I could definitely see Sotomayor flipping away from them on a Commerce Clause case involving marijuana - which have always presented a bit of a conflict between the outcome-based views of "political liberals" & principle-based holdings of "judicial liberals" - for the sake of the outcome.

So, anything from a (facially weird) 5-4 to a (facially weird) 7-2 for Raich, compared to the real-life 6-3 for Gonzales.

So you agree that Alito prioritize tough on crime over anything else, as I pointed out in my tough on crime justice post?

Alito prioritizes the Republican Party platform over everything else. He's the only bona fide dictionary-definition partisan hack currently on the Court.