CA Recall - Gravis Marketing No +5

[mds32]

Gravis Marketing

Recall?
No - 49%
Yes - 44%

https://gravismarketing.com/california-poll-results-gravis-marketing-2021/

[Biden his time]

Crosstabs:

45% Democratic
24% Republican
31% Independent/Other

Democrat 45%
Independent 31%
Republican 24%


It's looking more like the final electorate will end up:

53% Democratic
18% Independent/Other
30% Republican

... simply considering the early returns (when compared against early returns at this time during the 2020 presidential election)

Also, weird poll showing Biden's approval rating above water only by 8% in the state of California which he won by 29%.


It looks indicative of a No win though overall.

Very interesting crosstabs though showing Hispanics favoring the recall heavily.

We'll have to wait and see how correct that turns out

[THG]

Crosstabs:

45% Democratic
24% Republican
31% Independent/Other

Democrat 45%
Independent 31%
Republican 24%


It's looking more like the final electorate will end up:

53% Democratic
18% Independent/Other
30% Republican

... simply considering the early returns (when compared against early returns at this time during the 2020 presidential election)

Also, weird poll showing Biden's approval rating above water only by 8% in the state of California which he won by 29%.


It looks indicative of a No win though overall.

Very interesting crosstabs though showing Hispanics favoring the recall heavily.

We'll have to wait and see how correct that turns out

I don’t believe this, nor do I believe the poll having Newsom up by 20.

I think “No” wins by 8-12, and it isn’t entirely unreasonable to think it wins by say 15 or 6 either, but I will stick with my THG prediction for now.

[Person Man]

Crosstabs:

45% Democratic
24% Republican
31% Independent/Other

Democrat 45%
Independent 31%
Republican 24%


It's looking more like the final electorate will end up:

53% Democratic
18% Independent/Other
30% Republican

... simply considering the early returns (when compared against early returns at this time during the 2020 presidential election)

Also, weird poll showing Biden's approval rating above water only by 8% in the state of California which he won by 29%.


It looks indicative of a No win though overall.

Very interesting crosstabs though showing Hispanics favoring the recall heavily.

We'll have to wait and see how correct that turns out

I don’t believe this, nor do I believe the poll having Newsom up by 20.

I think “No” wins by 8-12, and it isn’t entirely unreasonable to think it wins by say 15 or 6 either, but I will stick with my THG prediction for now.

Do you wish to give a concrete protection? We are only 72 hours away.

[THG]

Crosstabs:

45% Democratic
24% Republican
31% Independent/Other

Democrat 45%
Independent 31%
Republican 24%


It's looking more like the final electorate will end up:

53% Democratic
18% Independent/Other
30% Republican

... simply considering the early returns (when compared against early returns at this time during the 2020 presidential election)

Also, weird poll showing Biden's approval rating above water only by 8% in the state of California which he won by 29%.


It looks indicative of a No win though overall.

Very interesting crosstabs though showing Hispanics favoring the recall heavily.

We'll have to wait and see how correct that turns out

I don’t believe this, nor do I believe the poll having Newsom up by 20.

I think “No” wins by 8-12, and it isn’t entirely unreasonable to think it wins by say 15 or 6 either, but I will stick with my THG prediction for now.

Do you wish to give a concrete protection? We are only 72 hours away.

No+10.8 or so.

The margin indeed depends on whatever kind of person turnout “Yes” materializes. I think it will be fairly high for Republicans, but exactly how high?

[Non Swing Voter]

Cool another polling firm to never take seriously again.