2016: Trump vs. Obama (after 8 years as Hillary's VP)

[Alben Barkley]

Imagine that Hillary Clinton narrowly won the 2008 primaries but selected Obama as her running mate in an effort to unite the party, then went on to win the presidency by a solid margin, and then was re-elected in 2012 by a slightly lesser margin (much like Obama himself did in our timeline). Her presidency goes fairly similar to Obama's presidency, with the most notable difference being that she manages to get the public option passed as part of her healthcare plan. And the backlash among WWC voters in the midterms is not as severe. But otherwise the economy, state of foreign policy, etc. are mostly in more or less the same shape they were in Obama's 2016.

Now an older, more experienced Vice President Obama is trying to run for president again, this time with the full backing of President Clinton and the party establishment. He is challenged by none other than Bernie Sanders in the primaries, who attacks the Clinton/Obama administration for being too hawkish and not sufficiently leftist. But Obama still ultimately wins the nomination fairly easily, and goes on to face another populist, Donald Trump, in the general election. Trump had initially been a Hillary Clinton supporter, but soured on her after she chose Obama as VP and especially after her administration did not control immigration enough in his eyes. He still manages to win the GOP primary on populist, anti-establishment sentiments and still has a fierce hatred of Obama (and is still a birther). He taps into the "economic anxieties" of WWC voters, many of whom supported Clinton but are wary of Obama.

What happens?

[NewYorkExpress]

First off, the Tea Party likely would have been worse with Clinton as President, because you have the already high hatred of the Clintons on the right, compounded by sexism against a female President, compounded, by in this scenario, a black Vice President. Democrats would be lucky to have 100 seats in the House or enough seats, including the remaining conservative Democrats, like Mary Landrieu and Ben Nelson, who would be afraid of losing reelection if they didn't start voting like Republicans, assuming they don't outright switch parties, and they likely lose in 2012/2014.

I'm not sure Clinton would win in 2012 against Romney, and if she does, it's only because Romney is really that bad a campaigner.

But after 2014, Republicans will have the votes in the House and Senate to impeach and convict both Clinton and Obama on whatever charges they can think of, and install John Boehner as President in what would effectively be a Tea Party coup.

[Alben Barkley]

First off, the Tea Party likely would have been worse with Clinton as President. First off, the Tea Party likely would have been worse with Clinton as President, because you have the already high hatred of the Clintons on the right, compounded by sexism against a female President, compounded, by in this scenario, a black Vice President. Democrats would be lucky to have 100 seats in the House

Stopped reading here lol

Fundamental misunderstanding of what the Tea Party was, who they were, and why and how they succeeded as much as they did. And even if we assumed your argument that the Tea Party would have been worse with Clinton was correct (lol), the idea that the Democrats wouldn't retain even 100 House seats may well be the single most ludicrous claim you have ever made here, which is REALLY REALLY saying something!

Still waiting on anybody who has even the slightest idea what they're talking about to chime in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Election is a tossup, leaning D, due to Obama being a high quality candidate. Trump is also high quality, which keeps it competitive.

[McGarnagle]

Barack Obama / Terry McAuliffe (D) 50% 334 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence (R) 45.9% 204 EV
Gary Johnson / Bill Weld (L) 2.3%
Jill Stein / Ajamu Baraka (G) 0.9%

It's difficult for one party to win the White House three consecutive times, but Obama pulls it off with a bare majority of the popular vote and plurality wins in many of the swing states. Though it doesn't have quite the electrifying, near-landslide quality of his 2008 win in real-life, it is a historic win nonetheless.

[President Johnson]

Obama was a far better campaigner than Hillary and therefore he would have defeated Trump in 2016. I guess Kaine is still the vice presidential nominee, as he was already considered in actual 2008. Now with both having more experience under their belt, nothing speaks against picking him. I could imagine Joe Biden became Secretary of State in Hillary's second term and a good chance newly elected President Obama keeps him at that job for another term.



✓ Vice President Barack H. Obama (D-IL)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 322 EV. (50.89%)
Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 216 EV. (46.08%)

[Zedonathin2020]

✓ Vice President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI): 348 EV.
Businessman Donald  Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 190 EV.

I mean I don't know about you guys, but I'm pretty sure that a younger, charismatic black man with about 20 years of experience at this point. could easily defeat an old, racist white guy who failed as a businessman and picked up politics as a hobby. Unlike Hillary in 2016, Obama was an actual good campaigner, and was relatively scandal free. Obama wins OTL 2012 + NC and NE-02