CA-Trafalgar: No +10
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  CA-Trafalgar: No +10
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Author Topic: CA-Trafalgar: No +10  (Read 854 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: September 04, 2021, 07:38:50 PM »

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2021, 07:40:02 PM »

Maybe partisanship was bound to kick in no matter what, but I feel like Elder becoming the face of the recall couldn't have helped the pro-recall camp.

At this point, I'd be very surprised if it succeeds.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2021, 08:07:25 PM »

Maybe partisanship was bound to kick in no matter what, but I feel like Elder becoming the face of the recall couldn't have helped the pro-recall camp.

At this point, I'd be very surprised if it succeeds.

Last month, I predicted that Remain would win by around 5%-6%. Now due to various factors such as Elder’s far right views on economics and early voting strongly favoring the dems right now. I now predict that Remain will win by mid teens margins.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2021, 10:23:03 PM »

Maybe partisanship was bound to kick in no matter what, but I feel like Elder becoming the face of the recall couldn't have helped the pro-recall camp.

At this point, I'd be very surprised if it succeeds.

It’s a combination of both, I’d say — I don’t think this was ever going to succeed when framed as a R vs. D race, and one should not forget that most of the polls that showed the race close also indicated unusually large support for Recall among Democrats and a surprisingly large number of 'undecided' Democrats (this should have been a flashing warning sign since those groups were always going to come home in the end). However, Elder essentially being a loose cannon who’s striking the wrong notes and is hilariously easy to run against by even an incompetent D campaign obviously helps at the margins. Team Newsom is also vastly outspending the entire field, and the mail-in system ensures high turnout on all sides.

This is safer than NJ at this point (and it arguably always was — kudos to those who didn’t fall for the hype).
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S019
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2021, 10:43:21 PM »

If even Trafalgar has No up 10, then this one's over, Safe No
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2021, 05:17:51 PM »

I would say that after this Texas fiasco, if any Republican wins the Governor races this year, it pretty much makes all the major races at least Lean R for a while.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2021, 05:38:54 PM »

This was only going to happen if Dem engagement remained spectacularly low. Faulconer could have potentially made that happen, but Elder is a Dem turnout machine.

The Democrats just have to do mediocre not to blow this one, and I don't see any reason they'll do worse than that.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2021, 05:39:42 PM »

The gold standard has spoken.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2021, 05:43:20 PM »

This isn't the California of 2003 anymore. And to be blunt, Newsom was never in a remotely similiar position to Gary Davis anyway...
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Devils30
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2021, 04:13:55 PM »

Another major hit by this STUD pollster. Had a poll Monday with No +8, only a minor 17 point or so miss when it's all said and done.
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S019
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2021, 04:16:01 PM »

Another major hit by this STUD pollster. Had a poll Monday with No +8, only a minor 17 point or so miss when it's all said and done.

This is why 538 rating them as an "A" pollster is a joke
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2021, 06:25:23 PM »

The pyrite standard.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2021, 07:22:27 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2021, 09:04:55 PM by Obama-Biden Democrat »

Another major hit by this STUD pollster. Had a poll Monday with No +8, only a minor 17 point or so miss when it's all said and done.

This is why 538 rating them as an "A" pollster is a joke

Elections without Trump on the ballot such as 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021 were bad for the Republican party. Pollsters are assuming elections will undercount Republicans like in 2020, which is wrong.

I used to add +5 to the Democratic candidate for Trafalgar, but that isn't enough now. They were off  by 18 points.  
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2021, 12:09:30 AM »

They're a complete joke and they shouldn't be linked to here anymore except in satire threads.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2021, 03:57:46 PM »

How embarrassing. Turns out just adding support to the Republicans because you feel like it is not good polling.
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