Burke County, GA

[Schiff for Senate]

What explains this county?

It's in the suburbs of Augusta, but it has just 27 people a square mile. It is majority-minority. It voted for Obama in 2008 by a 9.2% margin, and in 2012 by 11.3%. In 2016 it voted for Clinton by just 2.6%, and in 2020 it was one of just fifteen counties to flip red, going for Trump by 1.8%.

I mean, it has countervailing trends. It is 'suburban,' but it has only 27 people per square mile. And it's majority-minority. So I really don't get why it flipped, or why it has such a low population density.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Its proximity to the Augusta metro belies the fact that it's largely rural. In counties like this, the Black population has generally been moving to larger cities, while the white population, which controls more of the wealth and resources, stays. In addition to the shrinking minority population, white voters typically turn out at higher rates, skewing the voter population away from the demographics of the county at large. I believe that there's at least one other majority-minority county in the state that voted for Trump (Dooly), which in fact voted for him both times.

[Sol]

In the case of Dooly, fwiw, the county's electorate is probably plurality or even majority white, since there's a decently sized state prison in Unadilla.

screw the prison-industrial complex

[TML]

The 2019 American Community Survey indicated that the White population here now outnumbers the Black population here. While I haven't yet found the 2020 Census data for this county, I wouldn't be surprised if that remained the case here. If so, this would be yet another example of a county which flipped from D to R as a result of enough Blacks moving away to make the county a White-majority or White-plurality county.

[Smash255]

It is now majority white 50.3% to 47.6% black.  In 2010 it was 49.5% black, 47.5% white.  Only a little over 13% has a Bachelor Degree.  Also while it is in the Augusta area, calling it suburban is a bit of a stretch, it really is more rural than anything.

[Calthrina950]

Its proximity to the Augusta metro belies the fact that it's largely rural. In counties like this, the Black population has generally been moving to larger cities, while the white population, which controls more of the wealth and resources, stays. In addition to the shrinking minority population, white voters typically turn out at higher rates, skewing the voter population away from the demographics of the county at large. I believe that there's at least one other majority-minority county in the state that voted for Trump (Dooly), which in fact voted for him both times.

Biden did worse than Clinton and Obama throughout much of the rural Black Belt. In addition to Burke County, Trump also flipped Scotland County, NC and Clarendon and Dillon Counties, SC. And a number of Black Belt counties in other Southern states (i.e. Charles City County, VA and Jasper County, MS) swung towards Trump as well. So it seems like Democratic strength is stagnant or is declining across the Black Belt, for the reasons you identify.