How do you see 2020 turn out if Biden never ran and nothing else changes?

[Sir Mohamed]

Assume Biden declines to run in April 2019 after months of speculation, saying "it's time for someone new". Does Sanders get the nomination or is there anyone else who emerges as main "establishment candidate" to deny him victory? And does Trump get a 2nd term?

[TML]

The establishment would get behind whichever leading candidate not named Sanders (if it came down to Warren vs. Sanders, they would have coalesced around Warren).

[Sir Mohamed]

The establishment would get behind whichever leading candidate not named Sanders (if it came down to Warren vs. Sanders, they would have coalesced around Warren).

That may be true, though I'm not sure whether she was seen as more electable. One of Biden's key arguments was electablity, just remember how he said "you may like others more, but I can beat Trump". Biden's claim was backed up by polling since Trump took office; and Sanders to my knowledge always polled better than Warren. He polled better than several other candidates most of the time except for Biden. I preferred Warren over Sanders at the time, but I always had more faith in Sanders to defeat Trump. Now that we have the results, I'm afraid Warren would have lost the GE. Sanders is pretty much a 50-50 bet.

[patzer]

I think Beto O’Rourke might get the Dem nomination and the presidency. He’s got much more of a viable lane without Biden’s presence and could be seen as “electable”.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump gets re-elected unless by some miracle the Dems nominate Bloomberg

[Mr. Smith]

Sanders wins.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Either Sanders very narrowly beats Trump (but loses the House and fails to pick up the Senate) or Trump outright wins again and gains another trifecta.

[Pericles]

Either Sanders very narrowly beats Trump (but loses the House and fails to pick up the Senate) or Trump outright wins again and gains another trifecta.

The presidency was closer than the House.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Either Sanders very narrowly beats Trump (but loses the House and fails to pick up the Senate) or Trump outright wins again and gains another trifecta.

The presidency was closer than the House.

But the House popular vote isn't necessarily representative of the outcome. If it were a smaller margin there, as I would expect, then Democrats would in fact lose more than those 13 seats.

[Pericles]

Either Sanders very narrowly beats Trump (but loses the House and fails to pick up the Senate) or Trump outright wins again and gains another trifecta.

The presidency was closer than the House.

But the House popular vote isn't necessarily representative of the outcome. If it were a smaller margin there, as I would expect, then Democrats would in fact lose more than those 13 seats.

No I'm not judging by the popular vote, I'm judging by the tipping points. Biden would have lost the presidency if he lost all the states he won by 0.6% or less, Democrats would have lost the House only if they lost all the seats they won by 2.2% or less (PA-17 being the tipping point). In fact, most potential Trump win scenarios I think still end up with a Democratic House since the electorate was so stable last year that 2.2% is a lot harder to make up than it looks.

[SWE]

Either Sanders very narrowly beats Trump (but loses the House and fails to pick up the Senate) or Trump outright wins again and gains another trifecta.

The presidency was closer than the House.

But the House popular vote isn't necessarily representative of the outcome. If it were a smaller margin there, as I would expect, then Democrats would in fact lose more than those 13 seats.

It's plausible that a Bernie win would have smaller coattails, resulting in a slimmer house majority and a Republican Senate (I'm not sure I'm convinced that would be the case, but I can envision how it would happen), but it's really, really difficult to come up with a scenario in which Dems win the presidency but not the House. What 13 seats do you see realistically flipping?

[here2view]

Sanders wins the primary in contested convention, defeating Bloomberg - who is propped up by the establishment as the non-Sanders vote. Warren remains in the race longer than in the OTL.

Trump wins 278-260, with Sanders flipping Arizona (Hispanic vote) and Michigan. Trump holds on, with Pennsylvania being the deciding state (he wins by under a point)

[Tekken_Guy]

Either Sanders very narrowly beats Trump (but loses the House and fails to pick up the Senate) or Trump outright wins again and gains another trifecta.

The presidency was closer than the House.

But the House popular vote isn't necessarily representative of the outcome. If it were a smaller margin there, as I would expect, then Democrats would in fact lose more than those 13 seats.

No I'm not judging by the popular vote, I'm judging by the tipping points. Biden would have lost the presidency if he lost all the states he won by 0.6% or less, Democrats would have lost the House only if they lost all the seats they won by 2.2% or less (PA-17 being the tipping point). In fact, most potential Trump win scenarios I think still end up with a Democratic House since the electorate was so stable last year that 2.2% is a lot harder to make up than it looks.

To be honest, I think ticket splitting for downballot Republicans, especially in educated suburbs, might have been even worse than it was in real life had Sanders been the nominee.

[Continential]

Trump gets re-elected unless by some miracle the Dems nominate Bloomberg

Why would Bloomberg defeat Trump and not any other Dem? Bloomberg is easy to attack and is very out of touch, look how quickly he collapsed in the 2020 primaries!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump gets re-elected unless by some miracle the Dems nominate Bloomberg

Why would Bloomberg defeat Trump and not any other Dem? Bloomberg is easy to attack and is very out of touch, look how quickly he collapsed in the 2020 primaries!

Bloomberg can win North Carolina unlike other Dems which means he can lose PA, MI, WI and still win

[Lechasseur]

Now that we have the results, I'm afraid Warren would have lost the GE. Sanders is pretty much a 50-50 bet.

I agree with this. We know Biden won IRL, I also suspect it's 50-50 whether Bernie beats Trump or not (he could, but I suspect the GOP would at least still hold the Senate in a Bernie scenario), and I think anyone else who ran that year would have lost to Trump.

[President Johnson]

Hot take: Cory Booker emerges as the key establishment candidate and defeats Trump by a little less than Biden did. Perhaps Arizona narrowly stays with Trump.

I don't think Mike Bloomberg would have gotten anywhere after his debate performance. And enough mainstream Democrats would have prevented Bernie from the nomination. If nominated though, I think Bernie would narrowly have won by flipping the Rust Belt back.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hot take: Cory Booker emerges as the key establishment candidate and defeats Trump by a little less than Biden did. Perhaps Arizona narrowly stays with Trump.

I don't think Mike Bloomberg would have gotten anywhere after his debate performance. And enough mainstream Democrats would have prevented Bernie from the nomination. If nominated though, I think Bernie would narrowly have won by flipping the Rust Belt back.

If Biden doesn’t run , I think Bernie wins the nomination as there would be no democratic candidate who would have the name recognition to match Bernie in this case and name recognition is very important when it comes to primaries when there are really no charismatic candidates running .


Biden also was able to basically play generic D in a way no other dem could which I think was a huge reason he won .

[Chips]

I think Warren probably would've become the nominee and would've lost to Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hot take: Cory Booker emerges as the key establishment candidate and defeats Trump by a little less than Biden did. Perhaps Arizona narrowly stays with Trump.

I don't think Mike Bloomberg would have gotten anywhere after his debate performance. And enough mainstream Democrats would have prevented Bernie from the nomination. If nominated though, I think Bernie would narrowly have won by flipping the Rust Belt back.

I also think Booker would have actually been one of our better candidates against Trump. Though I'm mostly going off of him outperforming Biden very slightly in my state's elections last year.

[Non Swing Voter]

Sanders/Warren couldn't beat Trump.  They'd lose Wisconsin for sure, probably Pennsylvania and maybe Michigan.  They'd definitely lose Arizona.  I know people will say that Sanders did well among hispanics in the primary... but that's the primary.   He would not gotten the ridiculous margins got allover the country in upscale suburbs. 

[7,052,770]

Hot take: Cory Booker emerges as the key establishment candidate and defeats Trump by a little less than Biden did. Perhaps Arizona narrowly stays with Trump.

I don't think Mike Bloomberg would have gotten anywhere after his debate performance. And enough mainstream Democrats would have prevented Bernie from the nomination. If nominated though, I think Bernie would narrowly have won by flipping the Rust Belt back.

Agreed. Booker is a safe establishment-ish default.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hot take: Cory Booker emerges as the key establishment candidate and defeats Trump by a little less than Biden did. Perhaps Arizona narrowly stays with Trump.

I don't think Mike Bloomberg would have gotten anywhere after his debate performance. And enough mainstream Democrats would have prevented Bernie from the nomination. If nominated though, I think Bernie would narrowly have won by flipping the Rust Belt back.

If Biden doesn’t run , I think Bernie wins the nomination as there would be no democratic candidate who would have the name recognition to match Bernie in this case and name recognition is very important when it comes to primaries when there are really no charismatic candidates running .


Biden also was able to basically play generic D in a way no other dem could which I think was a huge reason he won .

I'm not sure about that. All "establishment candidates" got behind Biden after it looked like he was their strongest candidate in the immediate aftermath of the SC primary. Without Biden, another candidate would have taken that mantle. Whether that's Booker or not is another question. It's possible for sure. Really depends who emerges as top establishment candidate after Biden declines to run. The only one I don't think would have stopped Sanders is Buttigieg due to his lack of black support.

Sanders likely never had 50% of the Dem primary electorate and his opponents would have united behind whoever is the best to stop him.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hot take: Cory Booker emerges as the key establishment candidate and defeats Trump by a little less than Biden did. Perhaps Arizona narrowly stays with Trump.

I don't think Mike Bloomberg would have gotten anywhere after his debate performance. And enough mainstream Democrats would have prevented Bernie from the nomination. If nominated though, I think Bernie would narrowly have won by flipping the Rust Belt back.

If Biden doesn’t run , I think Bernie wins the nomination as there would be no democratic candidate who would have the name recognition to match Bernie in this case and name recognition is very important when it comes to primaries when there are really no charismatic candidates running .


Biden also was able to basically play generic D in a way no other dem could which I think was a huge reason he won .

I'm not sure about that. All "establishment candidates" got behind Biden after it looked like he was their strongest candidate in the immediate aftermath of the SC primary. Without Biden, another candidate would have taken that mantle. Whether that's Booker or not is another question. It's possible for sure. Really depends who emerges as top establishment candidate after Biden declines to run. The only one I don't think would have stopped Sanders is Buttigieg due to his lack of black support.

Sanders likely never had 50% of the Dem primary electorate and his opponents would have united behind whoever is the best to stop him.

The question though is SC , as Biden’s dominating performance there is what led to everyone getting behind him . If that doesn't happen, the establishment strategy might be to try to stop Bernie at a contested convention

[Mister Mets]

Interesting question.

I think Klobuchar or Buttigieg would've benefitted the most. I don't know if they would have been able to win against Sanders, though.